UFC 303 Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2: Odds, Tips and Predictions 06/29/24

At UFC 300, reigning light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira came through on short notice to defend his 205-pound championship against former division titleholder Jiri Prochazka – saving himself and saving UFC 300 in the process. Now at UFC 303 pay-per-view (PPV), Pereira will once more step in on short notice to defend it against former division titleholder Jiri Prochazka for five rounds in their rematch atop this pay-per-view event.

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Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

• Best Bet: Prochazaka by Submission +1300
• Moneyline Pereira -146
• Moneyline Prochazaka +118
• Over/Under 4.5

These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 06/28/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Prochazaka by Submission

Alex Pereira is an exceptional athlete.

Promoters are finding it increasingly challenging to arrange marquee fights due to fighters wanting to protect their spot and maintain their incomes. Can you tell me when Ilia Topuria plans on making his first 145-pound title defense? Probably not; Leon Edwards and Dricus Du Plessis took eight months before agreeing to defend their division titles while Jon Jones remains untouchable.

Pereira will compete at UFC 303 as part of his four-fight title streak in less than a year, two of which came on short notice.

“Poatan” won his fight over Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 without taking any damage. Fans should expect the same version of him when he takes on Jiri Prochazka for UFC 303’s five-round main event; likely similar to when we saw “BJP” at UFC 295.

Pereira will stand upright, cut at his legs, and swing the left-handed Hammer of Doom.

As seen against Israel Adesanya, Pereira’s standup defense can leave him vulnerable against Prochazka and Blachowicz – as evidenced at UFC 295. “Poatan” can usually weather the storm better than his opponents; eight out of 10 wins for Pereira include eight knockouts in total! My concern here is that Prochazka — who’s been knocked out three out of his four losses — may abandon his Samurai code and fight to win, taking advantage of Pereira’s porous takedown defense to try and knockdown defense weaknesses!

At UFC 275, it worked against Glover Teixeira.

Prochazka is the superior fighter and will prevail no matter where this fight goes. While that was also true for their first encounter, now “BJP” knows exactly who he’s up against and which path leads to victory. Although Prochazka could switch between kickboxing and bushido for much of this fight, I can imagine him switching between covering Pereira like Denny’s hash browns while setting up another late 2024 trilogy bout for another time.

Prediction: Prochazka will defeat Pereira by submission.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Prochazaka by Submission

• Pereira’s standup defense is shaky
• Prochazaka is the better fighter
• Pereira’s has fought a lot lately

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