UFC 300 Preview: Odds, Tips and Predictions 04/13/24

On this Saturday, two titles are on the line as Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight belt against Yan Xiaonan while Zhang Weili will attempt to defend her strawweight title against Yan Xiaonan. Aside from these marquee fights, there will also be numerous other fights of note on tap.

As well as Pereira and Weili’s belts on the line in Las Vegas, fans will also witness Justin Gaethje put his Bad Motherf***er belt, he won by beating Dustin Poirier last summer in Salt Lake City. Although losing against Max Holloway this Saturday does not compel Gaethje to relinquish his BMF title immediately, doing so would undoubtedly damage his reputation as being “The Badest MFer Alive.”

Check out the Top Sportsbooks for betting on UFC 300

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Odds Pereira vs Hill

• Moneyline: Pereira -134
• Moneyline Hill +116

Our Best Pick: Pereira to Win

Pereira should remain undefeated until his chin begins to slip, his speed decreases significantly, or he meets an elite grappler unlike Hill – I don’t see a way to victory for Hill. He proved both his speed and chin were in tact when he knocked out Jiri Prochazka in two rounds to win his title last November. I am looking for Pereira by Knockout. To bet on this fight, check out our best UFC betting sites.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Pereira to Win

• Pereira great chin
• Pereira the better fighter
• Pereira should Win

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Odds Weili vs Xiaonan

• Moneyline: Weili -550
• Moneyline Xiaonan +380

Our Best Pick: Weili inside the Distance

Oddsmakers and the public appear to favour Zhang over Yan as of this writing strongly, listing Zhang at -500 against Yan’s +350 advantage.

Though the betting line above opened more closely, gamblers have raised the price on the favorite – and I can understand their reasoning.

Given the impressive roster of competitive matchups on this historic fight card, Zhang is becoming one of the more sought-after parlay pieces this weekend.

However, suppose you prefer not playing parlays or heavily chalked numbers. In that case, I suggest shopping the prop market for “inside the distance” options on Zhang as an alternative way of taking action against him (depending on which sportsbook you visit “inside the distance” could also be labeled as “by finish”, “KO, submission or DQ”, among other options).

Mackenzie Dern may have attempted submission, but Zhang outshines him in terms of ground striking, aggression and wrestling skills.

DraftKings offers an Under 3.5 rounds at Plus Money (+120). This can serve as an added incentive or potential hedge, given it covers an early Yan finish, or you could simply place a fun flier on Yan winning by Knockout in Round 1 (+4000 at DraftKings).

However, I believe “Magnum”‘s power and ground game will prove too much for Yan. As such, I am betting that Zhang can find an opening before Round 3 ends to score his finish on the floor.

As my official play, I am taking Zhang to win inside the distance. B

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Weili inside the distance

• Both are Strikers
• Weili to strong
• Weili should Win

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Odds Gaethje vs Holloway

• Moneyline: Gaethje -170
• Moneyline Holloway +138

Our Best Pick: Holloway to Win

Although public opinion seems to favour Gaethje, public money has come pouring in for Holloway as of this writing; Gaethje is currently listed at -170, with Holloway at +138.

Even though I agree with who is favored, it is hard for me to place all the weight behind Gaethje in this position.

Gaethje may become the first opponent to dethrone Holloway as the former featherweight champion, yet I understand his popularity due to specific stylistic considerations.

Gaethje has made counterstriking, bodywork changes, and timing shifts a regular feature of his career, regardless of his stance pairings.

For this reason, I believe Holloway has the advantage in scoring an upset. Check out our best sportsbooks for betting on the UFC.

Suppose you’re seeking large numbers or potential hedges on Gaethje’s exposure. In that case, I suggest looking into Holloway to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 as an insurance policy (or vice versa if you favor Gaethje).

Given their popularity and likelihood, split-decision props for either side may also prove fruitful—currently, they’re reaching +800 on either side. However, I will provide coverage by wagering on Hawaii’s moneyline instead.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Holloway to Win

• Action Fight
• Holloway pulls the upset
• Holloway will win Win

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