UFC Fight Night: Spann vs Guskov: Odds, Tips, and Predictions 04/27/24

Spann has attempted to return to his pre-2020 form while Superman has hit his ceiling by going 4-4 in eight fights since returning. Recently he lost close decision against Smith again – this being his second consecutive setback.

Spann has defeated Dominick Reyes, Ion Cutelaba, Misha Cirkunov, and Sam Alvey, while suffering losses against Smith twice, Krylov, and Johnny Walker. Primarily known for his submission capabilities, he scores 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes while simultaneously attempting 1.5 submissions at once, with an average fight time of 5:22 for all wins and 12 submission triumphs to show for it.

“Csarevitch” Guskov has yet to be tested in his professional MMA career, boasting two first-round knockout wins – against Pauga last February and Oezdemir in September 2023 – before suffering his only submission loss against Oezdemir in September 2023. From Russia’s MMA system, Guskov relies heavily on brutish power that could propel him upward in rankings.

Physically, Spann has an advantage of two inches in height and three inches in reach, while Guskov is younger by one year. Both fighters usually end their fights within the distance – most usually within the first round – though their losses tend to be evenly split among decisions, knockouts, and submissions.

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Odds Spann vs Guskov

• Best Bet: Spann by submission +210
• Moneyline Guskov+165
• Moneyline Spann-200
• Over/Under 4.5

These odds were updated at 9 pm EST on 04/26/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Spann to Win

As Spann nears his goal of breaking into the light heavyweight division, he’s struggled with consistency. Since 2020, Spann has gone 4-4, including a two-fight losing streak with submission losses to Nikita Krylov and Anthony Smith; when not underperforming, however, Spann remains a formidable finisher with great finishing abilities.

Not to be overlooked is his success against established players in his division and the possibility that he could make the leap into the Top 10.

Bogdon Guskov brings an unrefined, free-swinging style into the octagon.

Guskov has gone 1-1 since joining the UFC, beating Zac Pauga but being out-muscled and submitted by Volkan Oezdemir in his debut bout. Still adjusting from competing in regional MMA competition, little evidence indicates he can defeat one of his counterparts who’s seen action against some of the best fighters in his division.

Spann is the superior fighter overall, so he should have no difficulty taking down Guskov in this fight. As long as Spann doesn’t get caught with any major hits during initial exchanges, he’ll win without issue.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Spann to Win

• Spann great finisher
• Guskov free-swinger
• Spann more experienced

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Spann vs Guskov Moneyline

I don’t love the money line and Spann in this fight as the odds are almost 2-1, so I will bet him to win by sunmission which are much better odds. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Spann by Submission

• Spann to dominate
• Spann will win
• Submission win

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Spann vs Guskov Over/Under Analysis

The Over/Under is 4.5 rounds, and I think the best bet is to bet the under in this fight. The Under 4.5 has a line set at +110.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet the Under4.5

• Spann too experienced
• Guskov not ready
• Spann will win

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Conclusion

Technically and experience-wise, Spann is several steps ahead of Guskov in his career.

Physically strong grappler with solid striking ability, Spann can easily transition his offence from stand-up to ground, where his most dangerous moves lie. His wrestling is very reliable; for someone like Guskov, who tends to gas out easily on the mat, it may be just what’s necessary for keeping his cool.

Guskov will pose an immediate threat, due to his impressive striking power. But so long as Spann maintains distance and keeps Guskov on the longer end of his jab, he should avoid the kill shots and create an environment in which Guskov feels confident enough to land an offensive shot or two – thus giving Spann the advantage in this fight.

He will keep firing hard shots and eventually subdue himself, which Spann will happily do, and then grapple and grind him when they clinch.

Once Spann has gassed out Guskov towards the end of round one, he should quickly apply pressure in round two. I expect Spann to wrangle a winded Guskov onto his back before closing him out with an armbar submission win.