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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez: Odds, Tips, and Predictions 04/27/24

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez: Odds, Tips, and Predictions 04/27/24

UFC Betting Tips Β· - Β·

Publish Date: 04/26/2024
Fact checked by: Mark Lewis

Matheus Nicolau will compete against Alex Perez in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday.

Nicolau is currently the fifth-ranked flyweight contender. He was initially scheduled to face Manel Kape at this event before withdrawing at the beginning of October and being replaced with Perez as his opponent. UFC odds show Nicolau as a -196 favorite, with Perez coming back as a +158 underdog.

Nicolau last competed last April when No. 1 contender Brandon Royval knocked him out in the opening round, ending Nicolau’s six-fight winning streak and dropping to 19-3 overall and 7-2 inside the octagon. Although 31-year-old Brazilian has an all-around skill set that is well rounded but does not stand out as outstanding;

Perez is currently on a three-fight losing streak against some of the premier fighters in his division, Deiveson Figueiredo being submitted in his title challenge, while in 2022, when fighting Alexandre Pantoja for his championship, Perez was stopped in the opening round and stopped again during an extended duel that went all five rounds. Check out the top UFC Betting Sites we will rank and let you know which sites are the best for betting on the UFC.

Last month, Perez returned after a 20-month absence and met Muhammad Mokaev for the second time, losing by decision. Perez displayed strong offensive and defensive wrestling but could use improvement with grappling. Furthermore, his kickboxing techniques are limited due to speed, yet he can be an excellent striker with fast hands but little power behind them.

Odds Nicolau vs Perez

  • Spread: Nicolau -196
  • Moneyline Perez+158
  • Moneyline Nicolau -196
  • Over/Under 4.5

These odds were updated at 9 pm EST on 04/26/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Nicolau to Win

Alex Perez fought just two months ago, so this fight represents a fast turnaround timeframe.

Perez often relies on taking down opponents to be successful, and Nicolau has an outstanding 93% takedown defense rate. Furthermore, Nicolau also boasts the greater punch of his shots which allows for better strike placement if Perez ever gets this match down to the mat – although his superior grappling could allow Nicolau to scramble back into advantageous positions more easily than Perez ever could.

I prefer active fighters who offer multiple paths to victory.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Heat to Cover
  • Nicolau great takedown defense
  • Niccolau better puncher
  • Perez quick turnaround
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

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Nicolau vs Perez Moneyline

I don’t love the moneylone and Nicolau in this fight as the odds are almost 2-1, so I will bet him to win on points which are much better odds.. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Nicolau on Points
  • Nicolau to dominate
  • Nicolau will win
  • Points decision
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

Β 

Nicolau vs Perez Over/Under Analysis

The Over/Under is 4.5 rounds and I think the best bet is to bet the over in this fight. The over 4.5 have a line set at +110.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 4.5
  • Odds favor Hdistance fight
  • Nicolau defense will be the difference
  • Nicolau will win
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

Β 

Conclusion

Nicolau will win this fight by controlling the tempo. He is very good at defending takedowns, and I think the most value in this fight is to take Nicolau on points, which pays at +270.

Perez suffered his first decision loss against Muhammad Mokaev in March, showing he still possesses some talent after going 20 months without fighting. Perez does an admirable job neutralizing offense while trying to wear down Muhammad Mokaev with wrestling; likely leading the judges into having their say about who wins this fight.

Nicolau last won via knockout against Matt Schnell, but Perez offers superior striking defense and is more durable. All five of Nicolau’s prior UFC victories had come by way of decision so I anticipate this bout will go similarly.

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