Derrick Lewis will square off against Rodrigo Nascimento for the main event of UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday. Lewis has headlined 10 main events and remains one of 12 ranked heavyweight contenders despite some decline in performance over time.
UFC odds have Lewis as a -154 favorite against Nascimento, who enters on a three-fight winning streak. Here are my best free UFC on ESPN Lewis vs Nascimento picks and predictions for May 11 from Enterprise Center in St Louis, Missouri.
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Lewis vs Nascimento
Best Bet: Lewis by KO/TKO -125
Moneyline Nascimento+156
Moneyline Lewis -154
Over/Under 4.5
These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 05/09/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Lewis by KO/TKO
After 28 fights in the UFC, we know exactly what we can expect from Derrick Lewis (aka “Black Beast”). His ground game may not be great and his skillset may not be on point, but this massive strength remains one of MMA’s hardest hitting competitors.
Although Lewis has only won one fight of his last five, he has consistently found ways to beat subpar opposition. Last year, he managed to stop Marcos Rogerio de Lima with a 33-second knockout victory as an underdog. Now, he faces borderline Top-15 heavyweight Nascimento, who doesn’t represent what his winning streak might imply.
Nascimento may have won three in a row, all against unranked foes who were no match for him in terms of skill or impressiveness. He claimed split decision victories against Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser during that span; then most recently in Don’Tale Mayes who managed to stall all three takedown attempts before outstriking him 79-70 in their fight.
Nascimento was unable to finish off those opponents, and is unlikely to do so with Lewis who went 25 minutes against Jailton Almeida last November. Even if Nascimento gets the takedown, Lewis is too large and strong for him to hold down or control while on the mat.
Lewis should be able to keep this fight standing long enough to find Nascimento’s chin.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet Lewis by KO/TKO
Lewis more experienced
Nascimento three fight win streak
Lewis has fought better competition
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Lewis vs Nascimento Moneyline
Stay off the money line. Lewis seems the best bet for me at -125 to win by KO/TKO. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
best sports betting app
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet Lewis by TKO/KO
Lewis to dominate
Lewis will win
Submission win
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Lewis vs Nascimento Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is 4.5 rounds, and I think the best bet is to bet the under in this fight. The Under 4.5 has a line set at +110.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet the Under4.5
Lewis too experienced
Nascimento not ready
Lewis will win
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Conclusion
I expect this fight to end in the first round with Lewis knocking Nascimento out. Lewis has lost a lot as of late, but his level of competition is much higher than Nascimento’s.
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