UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy, Odds, Tips and Predictions 5/18/24

Las Vegas will host a main event featuring two fighters who specialize in eight limb fighting techniques.

Edson Barboza first made waves in MMA as an aggressive leg kicker who reminded MMA fans why muay Thai is such an effective striking art.

After years of mixed success, Barboza decided to train under Mark Henry – an unassuming coach who quietly assisted in honing his footwork and fundamentals within boxing – in New Jersey.

From hitting pivots to stepping off at appropriate times, the Brazilian has exceptionally facilitated his punches and overall offense. Barboza always boasted an underrated counter right hand but has significantly upgraded his left hand under said upgrades. Though Barboza throws his jab more efficiently, his improved boxing counters and bodywork could prove especially valuable in this bout. Still, Barboza must respect the power that’s coming back his way.

Murphy appears to have made an indelible mark despite UFC matchmakers’ best efforts at concealing lighter-weight talent on preliminary cards, with his consistent wins making an indefensible statement of skill and dominance in this sport.

Murphy is an adept striker, appearing natural when it comes to striking. Murphy moves swiftly between both stances on his feet – whether firing off left-sided power shots from southpaw stance or setting up his trademark calk kick from orthodox, the English fighter appears unfazed when switching sides.

Murphy can vary his jab in looks and levels and show impressive instincts when it comes to leg kick defense and counters that should come in handy Saturday. Still, Murphy has shown he isn’t immune from being caught when kicking himself, making counters an effective two-way street.

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Barboza vs Murphy

• Best Bet: Barboza by Decision
• Moneyline Barboza+118
• Moneyline Murphy -115
• Over/Under 4.5

These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 05/17/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Barboza by Decision

Given that Murphy is the unbeaten fighter with less mileage, I wasn’t surprised when he was named as the odds-on favorite; still, it’s nice to see Barboza get some recognition given his relative lack of line movement overall.

Barboza has quietly been one of several Brazilian veterans to experience a late-career renaissance this year. Beyond settling into his new home of American Top Team, Barboza has made significant upgrades to his boxing game that have had an effect on Murphy.

Although Barboza knows Murphy could reenact an inferior version of Bryce Mitchell’s knockdown from southpaw is possible, his English fighter has shown limited defense when it comes to protecting his midsection.

If Murphy fails to stop Barboza within two rounds, I anticipate that he may gain the upper hand with bodywork and counters down the stretch.

My pick for today is Barboza by unanimous decision.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Batboza by Decision

• Barboza more experienced
• Murphy undefeated
• Barboza has fought better competition

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Barboza vs Murphy  Moneyline

The Money line is a solid bet on both fighters since the odds are so close. To create bigger value, pick the way the fighter you think will win and up your odds a little more. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Barboza by Decision

• Barboza takes control after the second round
• Barboza will win
• Barboza will take control late

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Barboza vs Murphy Over/Under Analysis

The Over/Under is 4.5 rounds, and I think the best bet is to bet the over in this fight. If it doesn’t end early, Barboza will take control.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet the Over 4.5

• Barboza too experienced
• Murphy not ready
• Barboza will win

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Conclusion

Murphy can take Barboza out early, but if he doesn’t Barboza’s experience will take the fight over and will lead to a close decision win for Barboza.