UFC 304 Edwards vs Muhammad: Odds, Tips and Predictions 07/27/24

UFC will return to England this weekend with UFC 304, an event featuring two title fights—including an exciting main event between current welterweight champion Leon Edwards and No. 2-ranked UFC contender Belal Muhammad.

Muhammad and Edwards met for the first time at UFC Apex in March 2021 when Muhammad made an early replacement appearance for Khamzat Chimaev; unfortunately the fight ended as no contest after an eye poke from Edwards left Muhammad unable to continue.

Edwards won his next four fights to extend his unbeaten streak to 13 fights and secure welterweight gold against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, respectively.

Belal has won all five of his fights since their first meeting, entering Saturday’s bout on a 10-fight unbeaten streak. He hopes to surpass Tyron Woodley as UFC history’s second-oldest welterweight champion (Tyron was 36 years, 144 days).

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Edwards vs Muhammad

• Best Bet: Edwards by Stoppage
• Moneyline Edwards -250
• Moneyline Muhammad +205

These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 07/27/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Edwards -250

I tend to rate Muhammad higher than the betting market does. As an all-around martial artist with a high fight IQ, Muhammad tends to capitalize on opponents wherever he has an edge, making recent matchups against Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, and Demian Maia easier for himself than usual in both striking and wrestling abilities.

Still, Muhammad holds no advantages against Edwards; otherwise, he’s evenly matched skill for skill. Even if Muhammad manages to land and consolidate takedowns early in the fight, Leon should be able to quickly scramble back up, win hand fights in clinch positions, and deliver knees-end elbows when chest-to-chest with Muhammad – Edwards consistently fires strikes when opponents attempt to grapple him which leaves Muhammad limited margin for extended takedown attempts and cling onto legs to work on extended takedown attempts during exchanges vs Muhammad.

If the challenger succeeds in his battles against Edwards, they should find their opportunity in the championship rounds as Edwards begins to tire. Edwards won his belt with an impressive fifth-round knockout win against Usman, but he has seen his defense fray late against Nate Diaz and in their respective fights when outwrestled by Covington in their respective bouts.

Belal must create an exciting, high-paced bout in which Edwards works to defend takedowns (on average 2.6 per 5 minutes) or fight his way off of his back to tire out the champion later in the bout.

Edwards should enjoy an obvious edge in striking when both competitors are fresh, landing significantly more damaging blows to gain deference from judges and gain their favor.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Edwards to win

• Edwards better striker
• Muhammad needs to extend to later rounds
• Edwards to win inside of four rounds

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