March Madness Upset Watch: The 10 Teams Most Likely to Shock the First Round

Every year the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament delivers chaos. No matter how strong the favorites look on paper, the tournament’s single-elimination format creates the perfect environment for underdogs to shock the college basketball world. A hot shooting night, a defensive game plan that frustrates a favorite, or simply the pressure of the moment can turn a supposed mismatch into a historic upset.

What separates the teams that actually pull off these upsets from the rest of the bracket is usually a combination of guard play, defensive discipline, and experience. Programs that can slow the game down, control possessions, and make big shots late tend to be the ones that bust brackets.

Looking ahead at this year’s field, several teams stand out as legitimate threats to send higher seeds home early. Here are the 10 teams most likely to pull off a first-round upset, ranked from No. 1 through No. 10.

1. VCU over North Carolina

The VCU Rams men’s basketball have built a reputation over the years as one of the most dangerous mid-major programs in the country, especially in tournament play. The Rams are never intimidated by brand-name opponents, and that mindset alone makes them a serious threat against North Carolina Tar Heels men’s basketball.

VCU’s biggest weapon is defensive pressure. Historically the program thrives on forcing turnovers, speeding up opposing offenses, and creating easy transition baskets. Teams like North Carolina that rely heavily on offensive rhythm can struggle when they’re constantly dealing with traps and pressure in the backcourt.

Another factor working in VCU’s favor is guard play. Tournament history consistently shows that veteran guards win games in March, and VCU typically builds its roster around experienced ball handlers who can control the pace.

North Carolina will likely have the advantage in size and recruiting pedigree, but that doesn’t always translate to tournament success. If the Rams can disrupt UNC’s half-court offense and force a chaotic game, this matchup could turn into the type of gritty contest where the underdog thrives.

For bracket-busters looking for a bold pick, VCU might be the best opportunity on the board.

2. Santa Clara over Kentucky

Few things create tournament chaos like a confident mid-major team facing a blue-blood program. That’s exactly the dynamic in this matchup between Santa Clara Broncos men’s basketball and the powerhouse Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball.

Santa Clara has quietly become one of the most efficient offensive teams outside the power conferences. The Broncos are capable of stretching the floor with perimeter shooting, and that style can give traditional teams like Kentucky problems.

Kentucky often enters the tournament with tremendous talent but relatively young rosters. Freshman-heavy teams sometimes struggle with the pressure of March, particularly against veteran mid-major teams that have played together for multiple seasons.

The Broncos also have the type of scoring balance that makes them dangerous. When multiple players can score in double figures, it becomes difficult for opponents to shut down the offense with a single defensive adjustment.

If Santa Clara can control the tempo and avoid turnovers, they could force Kentucky into a half-court game where the Wildcats’ athletic advantages become less impactful. This matchup has the potential to be one of the biggest surprises of the opening round.

3. South Florida over Louisville

The South Florida Bulls men’s basketball may not have the national recognition of Louisville Cardinals men’s basketball, but they have several characteristics that make them dangerous in a tournament setting.

South Florida plays a physical defensive style that can frustrate high-powered offenses. Teams that rely heavily on scoring runs often struggle when forced into slower, grind-it-out games. The Bulls excel in those situations.

Another factor is experience. South Florida’s roster has several players who have spent multiple years in the program, giving them chemistry that some power-conference teams lack. That continuity can be critical when games tighten in the final minutes.

Louisville will likely have advantages in athleticism and recruiting depth, but if South Florida can control the pace and keep the game within striking distance late, the pressure could shift quickly.

Upsets often occur when a favorite expects to win comfortably but instead finds itself in a tense final five minutes. If that scenario unfolds here, the Bulls could deliver a major surprise.

4. Missouri over Miami

The matchup between the Missouri Tigers men’s basketball and the Miami Hurricanes men’s basketball could easily turn into one of the most competitive games of the first round.

Missouri’s biggest strength is offensive versatility. The Tigers can score both inside and from the perimeter, which makes them difficult to defend when their offense is flowing. They are capable of going on explosive scoring runs that can change the momentum of a game quickly.

Miami, meanwhile, tends to rely on pace and perimeter scoring. If Missouri can control the rebounding battle and limit Miami’s transition opportunities, the Tigers could dictate the style of play.

Another advantage for Missouri is physicality. Tournament games often become more physical than regular-season matchups, and teams that embrace that environment tend to succeed.

If Missouri can turn this contest into a defensive battle while maintaining efficient offense, the Tigers have a legitimate chance to send Miami home early.

5. St. Louis over Georgia

The Saint Louis Billikens men’s basketball are exactly the type of disciplined mid-major program that frequently causes trouble in the NCAA Tournament. Their matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs men’s basketball could produce a classic upset scenario.

Saint Louis prides itself on defensive discipline and smart half-court offense. The Billikens rarely beat themselves with turnovers or rushed shots, which is a crucial trait in tournament basketball.

Georgia, like many power-conference teams, relies heavily on athleticism and individual playmaking. That style can be effective over the course of a season but sometimes struggles against teams that execute structured offensive systems.

If Saint Louis can slow the game down and turn it into a possession-by-possession contest, they may neutralize Georgia’s athletic advantage.

Teams that control tempo and make fewer mistakes often win in March, and Saint Louis has built its identity around exactly that approach.

6. UCF over UCLA

The UCF Knights men’s basketball are capable of pulling off a surprise against the traditionally strong UCLA Bruins men’s basketball.

UCF’s defensive identity makes them dangerous. They often play physical basketball, challenge shots at the rim, and force opponents into difficult half-court possessions.

UCLA, on the other hand, thrives on ball movement and offensive rhythm. If UCF can disrupt that rhythm with aggressive defense, the Bruins may find themselves struggling to generate easy scoring opportunities.

Another factor is tournament pressure. Programs like UCLA carry enormous expectations into March, and that pressure can become a factor if the game remains close late.

If UCF can keep the score low and avoid long scoring droughts, the Knights could turn this matchup into one of the tournament’s biggest surprises.

7. Clemson over Iowa

The Clemson Tigers men’s basketball have the defensive intensity needed to challenge the high-scoring Iowa Hawkeyes men’s basketball.

Iowa traditionally plays an offense-first style that produces impressive scoring numbers during the regular season. However, that same style can become risky in tournament play if shots stop falling.

Clemson’s strength lies in defensive discipline and physical rebounding. If the Tigers can limit Iowa’s second-chance opportunities and contest perimeter shots, they could disrupt the Hawkeyes’ offensive rhythm.

Another key factor is pace. Clemson tends to prefer slower games, which could prevent Iowa from turning the contest into a track meet.

If Clemson controls tempo and forces Iowa into contested shots, the Tigers could emerge as one of the tournament’s biggest bracket-busters.

8. Akron over Texas Tech

The Akron Zips men’s basketball have quietly built one of the most consistent mid-major programs in recent years, and that consistency could make them a dangerous opponent for the Texas Tech Red Raiders men’s basketball.

Akron excels at disciplined team basketball. The Zips rarely rely on a single star player, instead spreading scoring responsibilities across multiple contributors. That balance makes them difficult to defend.

Texas Tech traditionally emphasizes defense, but that style can sometimes produce low-scoring games where a few possessions determine the outcome.

If Akron can stay close into the final minutes, their balanced scoring and disciplined play could allow them to pull off a narrow victory.

In March Madness, teams that execute consistently often outperform teams that rely heavily on athleticism alone.

9. TCU over Ohio State

The matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs men’s basketball and the Ohio State Buckeyes men’s basketball could easily turn into a physical battle.

TCU’s biggest advantage lies in its defensive toughness and rebounding ability. The Horned Frogs thrive in gritty games where every possession matters.

Ohio State typically relies on perimeter shooting and offensive spacing. If TCU can contest those shots and dominate the boards, the Buckeyes may struggle to generate consistent offense.

The Horned Frogs also bring a level of physicality that can disrupt opponents accustomed to more open styles of play.

If TCU turns this game into a defensive battle, they could grind out an upset victory.

10. Troy over Nebraska

The Troy Trojans men’s basketball may be the least recognized team on this list, but that anonymity could work to their advantage against the Nebraska Cornhuskers men’s basketball.

Troy’s style of play emphasizes defensive pressure and fast-paced offense. When the Trojans are forcing turnovers and scoring in transition, they can overwhelm opponents quickly.

Nebraska will likely enter the game as the favorite, but tournament history is filled with examples of teams that struggled against aggressive underdogs.

If Troy can dictate tempo and turn the game into an up-and-down contest, the Trojans could surprise a Nebraska team that may not be accustomed to that level of chaos.