2026 US Open ATP Men’s Singles Preview: Alcaraz Defends, Zverev Chases No. 2 and a Wide-Open Draw Creates Opportunity

The 2026 US Open men’s singles championship has arrived at Flushing Meadows with a dramatically different landscape than most expected. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back after a lengthy injury absence, Alexander Zverev enters as the No. 1 seed and reigning French Open champion, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is not competing because of a right knee injury. Add Novak Djokovic’s stunning first-round elimination, and the final Grand Slam of the season suddenly feels more open than it did when the draw was announced.

Tournament: 2026 US Open — Men’s Singles Main Draw: August 30–September 13, 2026 Location: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York Surface: Outdoor hard court Defending Champion: Carlos Alcaraz Men’s Singles Champion Prize: $5.5 million

The USTA has announced a record $108 million in total player compensation, including $5.5 million for each singles champion.

Carlos Alcaraz — The Man to Beat

Alcaraz entered New York with perhaps the biggest question mark in the tournament. The Spaniard had not played a singles match since April because of a right wrist injury, but his opening performance went a long way toward answering concerns about his health.

Alcaraz defeated Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, showing no significant physical problems and saving five of the six break points he faced. He now meets Jaime Faria in the second round.

The defending champion already owns seven Grand Slam championships and won the Australian Open earlier this season, becoming the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. He also owns US Open titles from 2022 and 2025.

The concern is endurance. Winning seven best-of-five-set matches after such a long absence is very different from looking sharp in one opening-round victory. If his wrist holds up, however, Alcaraz has the combination of movement, power, creativity and big-match confidence to win the tournament again.

Prediction: At his best, Alcaraz remains my favorite to win the championship.

Alexander Zverev — The No. 1 Seed Has His Chance

With Sinner withdrawing, Zverev moved to the top of the draw. More importantly, the German is no longer carrying the burden of trying to prove he can win a major.

Zverev finally captured his first Grand Slam championship at Roland Garros, defeating Flavio Cobolli in five sets in the final. He followed that breakthrough by reaching the Wimbledon final.

His New York campaign, however, nearly ended immediately. Zverev needed five sets to survive Lorenzo Sonego, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 in a marathon opening-round match.

That could prove costly physically, but it could also give Zverev confidence. His serve and backhand are particularly dangerous on the New York hard courts, and he has unfinished business here after losing the 2020 final to Dominic Thiem despite leading by two sets.

Prediction: Zverev is a legitimate finalist, but he cannot afford too many five-set battles.

Novak Djokovic’s Exit Changes Everything

One of the tournament’s defining moments happened almost immediately.

Four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic was stunned by Mariano Navone in the first round, falling 7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1. Djokovic struggled physically during the match, and his pursuit of a record 25th Grand Slam championship ended far earlier than expected.

Combined with Sinner’s absence, Djokovic’s defeat removes two of the most intimidating possible obstacles from the championship picture.

That is especially significant for Alcaraz’s half of the draw.

Daniil Medvedev — Don’t Forget the Former Champion

Few players understand how to win in New York better than Daniil Medvedev.

The 2021 champion entered the tournament searching for consistency but opened with an encouraging straight-sets victory over Hugo Gaston, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4.

Medvedev’s deep return position, defensive range and ability to frustrate aggressive players remain ideally suited to hard courts. He may not enter with the momentum of Alcaraz or Zverev, but if he finds confidence over the first few rounds, he becomes extremely dangerous.

He is one of my strongest candidates to take advantage if the favorites stumble.

Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz Lead the American Challenge

The United States still has multiple legitimate threats.

Ben Shelton recovered from an ugly opening set against Tallon Griekspoor, losing it 1-6 before storming back to win in four. His enormous left-handed serve gives him a chance against almost anyone, particularly under the lights inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Shelton’s second-round meeting with Hubert Hurkacz is one of Wednesday’s most intriguing matches. Shelton entered as approximately a -260 favorite, but Hurkacz’s serve makes the matchup far more dangerous than the seedings suggest.

Taylor Fritz, the 2024 US Open runner-up, also made an impressive start by beating Darwin Blanch in straight sets. His serve-plus-forehand combination and experience making a deep run here make him another American worth watching.

A Shelton-Fritz run into championship weekend would transform Flushing Meadows into an enormous home-crowd spectacle.

Dark Horses

Several players could destroy brackets.

Flavio Cobolli deserves attention after reaching the 2026 Roland Garros final. He showed tremendous resilience in New York by recovering from two sets down to defeat Francisco Comesana in five.

Stefanos Tsitsipas produced one of the biggest opening-round results by knocking out Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils while firing 50 winners.

Alex de Minaur, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime also possess enough talent to reach the second week, particularly in a draw already missing several major names.

Match to Watch: Ben Shelton vs. Hubert Hurkacz

This could resemble a heavyweight fight conducted with tennis racquets.

Both players can dominate with first serves and shorten points quickly. Shelton brings the better recent form and home-crowd advantage, while Hurkacz has the experience and serve necessary to drag sets into tiebreakers.

Prediction: Shelton in five sets.

Championship Prediction

The tournament may ultimately come down to whether Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist and conditioning survive two weeks of Grand Slam tennis.

Zverev has arguably the safer physical profile and now possesses the confidence that comes from finally winning his first major. Medvedev has the hard-court pedigree. Shelton and Fritz have home support.

But Alcaraz has the highest ceiling.

His straight-sets opening victory showed enough explosiveness and movement to suggest that the defending champion isn’t simply in New York to test his wrist—he is here to win another trophy.

Predicted Final: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

🏆 Predicted Champion: Carlos Alcaraz

Prediction: Alcaraz defeats Zverev in five sets.

Conclusion

The 2026 US Open men’s championship has already been turned upside down. Sinner never made it to New York because of injury, Djokovic is gone after one round, Zverev barely survived his opener and Alcaraz is attempting to defend his crown after months away from singles competition.

That uncertainty could make this one of the most entertaining US Opens in years.

Alcaraz remains the player with the most complete arsenal, but Zverev finally knows what it feels like to win a Grand Slam. Medvedev is lurking, the Americans are dangerous, and several dark horses suddenly have realistic paths deep into the tournament.

At Flushing Meadows, where the crowd and night sessions can change the momentum of an entire championship, the 2026 US Open is wide open—and Carlos Alcaraz is still the player everyone has to beat.

Updated September 2, 2026, with the tournament in second-round play.