World Cup: The Favorites Blinked First After Round One

Round one at the 2026 World Cup is done, and honestly, it was indeed a rough week for the ‘favorites’. Spain, Brazil, the Netherlands, and Portugal all walked off without a win, and Australia pulled off the kind of result that defines a tournament. Colombia closed the round  Wednesday with a 3-1 win over debutants Uzbekistan, and even that was not as easy as it looks, since Uzbekistan pulled level at 1-1 before Luis Díaz and Jáminton Campaz settled it late.

Keeping all of that in mind, the message out of the opening round is the one this tournament sends every four years. No lead is safe, and the favorites were nowhere near as safe as the bracket made them look.

The Favorites Had a Brutal Opening Week

The biggest names took the hardest knock. Spain, the highest-ranked team in the field, managed a scoreless draw with Cape Verde in its first World Cup. Brazil needed a Vinícius Júnior moment to escape with a 1-1 draw against Morocco; the Netherlands threw away a 2-2 draw with Japan; and Portugal looked far from a contender in a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, as Cristiano Ronaldo failed to score again. Add Uruguay’s draw with Saudi Arabia, and five heavyweights opened with a dropped result.

Although not everyone slipped, France came out 3-1 victors against a resilient Senegalese team behind a Kylian Mbappé brace, and Argentina handled Algeria 3-0 with a Lionel Messi hat trick. That contrast is the point, since the gap between the teams that showed up and the ones that stumbled makes the next two weeks a hard call.

Dropping points in the opener ends nobody’s tournament, though. According to ESPN, Portugal coach Roberto Martínez pointed to history afterward, reminding everyone that “Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia and then went on to win the World Cup in Qatar.” He has a fair point, since Messi and his boys did it four years ago. That being said, the same history wars every team that started well, because one result settles nothing here.

The New Format is Where It Gets Complicated

The expanded field adds to it. There are now 12 groups instead of eight, and the eight best third-place teams advance into a new Round of 32. The final day of group play is no longer one or two nervy spots but a dozen at once across three countries. Because the third-place standings compare every group against every other, a late goal in one city can eliminate a team in another that never kicked the ball.

Whatever you make of the bigger field, it keeps more teams alive deeper into the group, the setup that produces upsets. American sports fans know the feeling too well. It is the NFL on the final Sunday of the regular season, when you watch four games at once with a playoff chart open on your phone.

The Real Test Starts Now for The USMNT

More than likely, the team that should study round one hardest is the USA. Pochettino’s side was excellent in beating Paraguay 4-1, but Australia just shocked Türkiye 2-0 in the same group, beating the very team that beat the Americans last summer. The two meet Friday at Lumen Field in Seattle with first place in Group D on the line, and Australia will sit deep and dare the host to break them down.

The one real worry is our “Captain America”, who came off at halftime against Paraguay with a calf issue and has not trained fully since. He is day to day, and his teammates sound confident, but Pochettino may not risk him from the start. With Balogun, McKennie, and Reyna in form, the US can cope without him. Either way, Friday in Seattle is the USMNT’s turn to face the lesson the rest of the field learned the hard way.