Best Earthquake Prediction Markets Sites & Apps 2026: Where to Trade Earthquake Events

Best earthquakes prediction market sites

Let’s kickstart this guide by sharing three of the best earthquake prediction market sites for you to try. All of these sites bring something different to the table, catering to all types of traders. After spending months testing a range of sites, here’s the list of our favorites and what made them stand out:

Polymarket – In-depth earthquake markets

Polymarket: Pros and Cons

• Plenty of prediction market topics
• Trending and breaking areas of interest
• Lots of predictions in all major subject areas
• User-friendly site design

• Gradual US rollout

Polymarket is one of the best earthquake prediction market sites around for its market depth. At the time of our last visit, Polymarket had 16 earthquake markets to choose between, with contracts inviting traders to predict how many earthquakes of a specific magnitude will happen within a specific timeframe being the most common. These contracts ask traders to predict how many 5.5, 6.5, 7.0, 9.0, and 10.0 earthquakes there will be either in a year or a specific time window.

Traders can also predict earthquakes in specific US states, such as ‘Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?’. Whatever types of contracts you want to get involved with, Polymarket has a dedicated earthquakes section, which allows you to browse the full list of options. Whether you are into global or US-based earthquake predictions, Polymarket caters to all types of traders.

Kalshi – Consistent California-based contract

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• Find markets via search facility
• Extensive range of prediction markets
• Clear fees system
• Large help center

• Limited promos for existing customers

Kalshi holds the earthquake contracts within the natural disasters section, which you can get to via the Climate tab. At the time of our last exploration of Kalshi, we only found two individual contracts – one being California-based, while the other was based on the magnitude of earthquakes in Japan. In fact, it appears that the California contract is a permanent fixture, making it the focal point of earthquake markets at Kalshi. This market asks you to predict the magnitude of an earthquake that will occur in California by the end of the year.

What stood out about Kalshi the most is its commitment to keeping traders informed. At the bottom of each market, you will find the latest news articles, reports, and other relevant stats to allow you to stay up-to-date on the latest information on your market. With this information, you can make a judgement on whether to hold your contract or sell.

Crypto.com – Great for seasonal trading

Crypto.com: Pros and Cons

• Sports, elections, culture, and economics markets
• Low commission for trading
• Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments

• No crypto prediction markets

Crypto.com works a little differently to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Instead of offering earthquake contracts around the clock, Crypto.com adds earthquake markets during times when there’s elevated earthquake activity. This makes Crypto.com one of the best earthquake prediction market sites for when there’s a lot of global or local activity, rather than long-term.

A feature that we like about Crypto.com is that you don’t need to load the full market page to view the list of contract options. From the homepage, you can get all the information you need on a market that has caught your eye, including the chance to win, list of selections, the end date, and more. So, if you’re not quite sure what you want to trade, its grid layout makes it super easy for browsing.

Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.

What are earthquake prediction markets?

Not entirely sure how trading on earthquake prediction markets works? We have all the details you need right here, so you can get up to speed in no time. Thankfully, earthquake prediction markets largely work just like any other market, so there’s not much to relearn. Whether you are a beginner or just want to brush up on a few things, here’s everything you will need to know.

Contract prices

All contract prices are based on the implied probability and will change depending on the market activity. As more traders buy and sell contracts, the price will change. For example, if a Yes contract is priced at $0.70, this indicates an implied probability of 70% of that outcome happening. However, as new information is announced, such as reports or statistics, traders will then react, causing a shift in the price.

Contract formats

The most common contracts are the binary Yes/No format. This will give you a list of all possible outcomes, each having a Yes and No contract attached. You will then decide which contract you want to buy, indicating your prediction. For example, if the market is asking, ‘9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?’ in this case, you will have just two options – Yes or No.

However, if the market asks, ‘How many 6.5 or above earthquakes this month?’ you will have a list of possible outcomes, such as 0 and 1. You will then have a Yes or No contract for each of those outcomes, giving you a total of 4 contracts to choose from.

Settlement

If your prediction is correct, you will get a $1 settlement. On the other hand, if you were wrong, then your contract will resolve at $0, and you will not get a payout. In most cases, the market will resolve within a few minutes. However, if there’s a delay in confirming the data or a belief that the data may be incorrect, then there will be some delay. Either way, your prediction market site will keep you informed on the updates.

Types of contracts you will find at the best earthquake prediction market sites

Not all prediction market sites offer the same types of contracts, just like with the best tornadoes prediction market sites. Depending on the focus of the site, you will get a range of different contracts. So, here’s a look into some of the contracts you will find at prediction market sites that offer earthquake-based contracts:

Magnitude of earthquakes

These contracts can be both global and US-based, asking you to predict if there will be an earthquake of a specific magnitude. For example, ‘How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?’ and ‘Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?’. These contracts can also be long-term or short-term, depending on the focus of the prediction market site. So, you might find these contracts asking you to forecast the earthquakes over days, weeks, or months.

Megaquakes

A megaquake is a powerful earthquake that has a magnitude of 8.0 or higher. These contracts ask you to predict the likelihood of this type of earthquake happening within specific regions or countries. Megaquake contracts attract the traders who enjoy long-term markets. While these contracts tend to have low implied probabilities, they do reflect the risk of a megaquake happening at any time.

Annual count of earthquakes

If you enjoy following the long-term risk of earthquakes, this contract will be perfect for you. It asks you to predict the total number of earthquakes that will occur in the year. It can be based on specific regions or globally, giving you a varied choice to match your interests. An example of this type of contract is, ‘How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?’.

How to trade contracts on the best earthquakes prediction market sites

Want to start trading on top prediction markets? Here’s a guide on how to get up and running with ease:

1. Find your favorite prediction market site

   We have given you a list of three of the best earthquake prediction market sites on this page, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com. After checking out the reviews on this page, you can create an account at your chosen site by clicking the on-page links.

2. Create an account and get verified

   Complete the sign-up form by entering a few basic details, including your name, date of birth, and email address. You may then be asked to verify your email address to get your account authorized.

3. Deposit into your account

   Once your account is up and running, head to the cashier page to make your first deposit. You will usually find options like debit cards, e-wallets, and bank transfer available. Regardless of which payment method you use, your deposits will generally land in your account instantly.

4. Go to the earthquake markets

   Depending on the site, navigate to the Weather or Climate tabs, where you will find the available earthquake contracts. Here, you will find all the contracts, including annual earthquake counts, US-based contracts, long-term contracts, and more.

5. Start trading

   After reading the rules of the contract that catches your eye, you can make your prediction by buying the contract that reflects your forecast. Simply tap on the contract of your choosing and follow the on-screen instructions to complete your first trade.

6. Hold or wait

   While you wait for the market to be resolved, you can either hold on to your contract or sell to other traders. If you decide to hold your contract, you will receive a $1 settlement if your prediction was correct. Otherwise, your contract will resolve at $0 and becomes worthless.

Tips for trading contracts at earthquake prediction market sites

Now you know exactly how earthquake prediction markets work, let’s take a closer look at a few tips. We have spent a lot of time getting to know how these markets work, so here are a few tips that can help you have a positive experience.

Pros and cons of trading earthquake contracts

Still weighing things up? Just like the best hurricane prediction market sites, earthquake-based contracts come with both pros and cons. So, let’s take a moment to recap the key pros and cons, so you are making an informed choice:

Pros and Cons

• Focus on specific regions
• Magnitude contracts are measurable
• Seismic data is widely available
• Multiple time periods

• Potential to overreact

Conclusion: Wrapping up on earthquake prediction markets

Earthquake prediction markets give you a shot at forecasting one of the biggest categories in natural disasters. As you can tell, there’s a wide choice of different contract types. You can predict the magnitude of earthquakes, forecast earthquakes in specific regions and countries, and even trade on the total number of earthquakes in a year. Whatever your interests, there is an earthquake-based contract to suit all types of traders.

While there is a lot of seismic data available to base your decision on, such as monitoring and historical records, data can be revised. What we mean by this is that as reports come out, they may be initial estimates. As such, it’s important to check back on reports, because things like the magnitude or even location may change.

We have shared some of the best earthquake prediction market sites around, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com. All three of these sites offer something completely different. If you’re looking for in-depth market coverage, Polymarket hits the mark. On the other hand, Kalshi is excellent for California-based contracts, while Crypto.com offers contracts during surges of activity. If any of these have caught your attention, all you need to get started is tap the promotional banners on this page.

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