Best Weather Prediction Markets Sites & Apps 2026: Where to Trade Weather Events

How do the best weather prediction market sites work?

We want to start by saying that there aren’t any dedicated weather prediction market sites. Instead, you will find that climate and weather predictions are just one of many categories that the operators offer. For example, Polymarket has a dedicated weather section, but it also features categories for politics, sports, mentions, and commodities, among other things.

Either way, the underlying premise is that these operators give you the chance to trade predictions relating to the world’s climate and weather. This can include global weather trends like record temperature highs, daily high temperatures in specific cities like Tokyo, and the chance for the occurrence of natural disasters and other weather phenomena.

You buy, sell, and hold predictions on the weather

Let’s look at an example of a climate prediction so you can better understand how the best prediction sites work. A simple one that we’ve seen the best volcano prediction market sites have is:

“Major Volcano Eruption (VEI > 6) in 2026?”

• Yes: 7.3c
• No: 93.9c

This is an actual example we took from Polymarket which is one of the leaders when it comes to weather predictions. The first part is the prediction itself – we are predicting whether or not we think there will be a major volcano eruption anywhere in the world with a strength of greater than 6 on the VEI rating.

Below that, we have Yes and No options – these are known as the trade contracts – each prediction has a series of trade contracts that have a base value of $1. You can buy and sell these trade contacts from other customers. For example, if you think things are looking pretty safe, you could buy the NO trade contracts at $0.939 each.

With any weather prediction trade contracts you have bought, you can then do the following:

• Sell: if the trade contract price shifts in your favor, for instance if the “No” option in the above scenario moved to $0.98 each, you could potentially try and sell them to make a little profit minus any trading fees.
• Hold and settle: alternatively, if you want to stick with your guns and you are confident in the prediction you made, you can hold your contracts and try to settle them to make a return. If you hold your contracts and they settle in-the-money, this means you got the prediction right, and you’ll get a $1 return for each contract. Alternatively, if you get the prediction wrong, your contracts settle out-of-the-money, in which case you get $0 return.

That’s the basics of weather predictions, and to give you a better idea of how these things work, we’ve listed some live predictions that were active at the time we created this guide:

As you can see, there’s plenty of different types of weather predictions, and they usually involve the following categories:

• Daily high temperatures.
• Global temperature highs.
• Rainfall.
• Natural disaster occurrences.

Pros and cons of the best weather prediction market sites

From our research, we’ve found that the best volcano prediction market sites and other similar operators are continuing to expand their offering and include more varied weather predictions. Additionally, there’s usually a host of supporting information and data that you can utilize to make your trades. However, compared to other predictions, there typically isn’t the same trade volume, and as a result, liquidity for your trade contracts can be more difficult to come by.

Pros and Cons

• Ever-growing prediction variety
• Clear settlement conditions
• Lots of supporting data
• Easy-to-use sites

• Smaller trade volume

How to pick the best prediction sites for weather and climate markets

Not all prediction exchanges are created equal! Some sites simply don’t have any weather predictions, while others might only have a limited collection, or too little trade volume. With that in mind, during our time researching the best weather prediction market sites, we’ve realized there are a range of factors to look for to find the top options:

Our top three picks for weather prediction sites

While there are plenty of weather prediction sites, we think that some do a much better job and give you way more variety. With that in mind, our current top three picks for this genre of predictions are Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com:

Polymarket – separate categories for natural disasters

Polymarket: Pros and Cons

• Plenty of prediction market topics
• Trending and breaking areas of interest
• Lots of predictions in all major subject areas
• User-friendly site design

• Gradual US rollout

Out of the best hurricane prediction market sites and the major operators who offer climate predictions, we rate Polymarket as the top option, purely because of the variety of markets it offers. Firstly, it has a dedicated weather category, and this is split into various sub categories such as temperatures, precipitation, tornadoes, hurricanes, pandemics, and global weather trends.

We’ve checked out a range of the predictions, and the volume is typically OK, but for things like daily temperatures in specific cities, you’re looking at maybe $20k-50k volume max, which is considerably lower compared to other markets that have millions. Still, we do not envision that you will have any issue getting your trade orders executed. It’s also important to note that for US customers, the desktop website is view-only – if you actually want to trade here and credit your account, you will need to download one of the two mobile apps Polymarket offers.

Kalshi – dedicated climate category

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• Find markets via search facility
• Extensive range of prediction markets
• Clear fees system
• Large help center

• Limited promos for existing customers

Similar to Polymarket, Kalshi could be considered one of the best tornado prediction market sites alongside its other climate markets. It offers customers a dedicated climate section, with subcategories relating to climate change, daily temperatures in major cities around the world, hourly temperatures, hurricanes, snow and rain, and other natural disasters.

From our testing and research, most of the predictions have a solid trade volume, although we’ve found that climate and weather predictions are typically not as popular at Kalshi as things like sports, politics, and crypto. To facilitate these P2P prediction trades, Kalshi also has a clean and modern website design, plus two awesome downloadable apps, and it also uses a simple trading fee formula where you pay variable fees based on the value of your individual trade contracts.

Crypto.com – superb banking system

Crypto.com: Pros and Cons

• Sports, elections, culture, and economics markets
• Low commission for trading
• Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments

• No crypto prediction markets

While Crypto.com stands out for its climate predictions, it’s also one of the top sites in terms of functionality and payment flexibility. The prediction exchange is just one part of the overall Crypto.com company, and as a result, if you use our banners and sign up, you’ll also get access to the other features like its crypto exchange, and the excellent array of payment methods it supports.

When it comes to things like the best earthquake prediction market sites, Crypto.com is up there though as it offers a separate climate section. At the time we wrote this guide, this section had plenty of different prediction markets relating to temperature records around the world, and highest temperature predictions for major cities like Los Angeles. Aside from that, Crypto.com is one of the better operators for other non-sport predictions like crypto prices, financials, and politics.

Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.

How to get started at a weather prediction market site

Whether you want to try Kalshi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com, you need to register an account – this is the only way you will be able to unlock the site’s features, deposit funds into your account, and start trading. The exact process may vary slightly, but it should involve these steps:

1. Click any of the relevant banners here.

2. Click the sign up, join, or register button.

3. Enter any requested details.

4. Accept T&CS if needed.

5. Verify your email and/or SMS if needed.

6. Log in to your new account.

Whenever we’ve tested these sites, verification is usually an important process, and in most cases, you will have to do a full ID check at some point including uploading documents like a driver’s license. It’s best to get this out of the way as soon as possible so you can unlock all of the site’s features.

Once you have created your account, you’ll be able to deposit funds using one of the accepted payment methods (often fiat and crypto are accepted), and then browse the weather prediction markets.

Conclusion – the climate is becoming a hot topic for prediction sites

Our planet’s climate and the related weather conditions are becoming increasingly important in today’s modern world, as we see the first-hand effects of climate change resulting in increases in temperatures, and a seeming increase in natural disasters. Because of this, the best weather prediction market sites give us a way to keep track of these changes, and look at how people are being affected.

Additionally, the large range of prediction markets they offer give you trading potential, and something to consider when mixed in with your other strategies. Just remember though, that typically compared to other markets, climate predictions have a lower trade volume. Regardless though, if you want to improve your weather knowledge and make a few trades, feel free to click our Polymarket, Crypto.com, or Kalshi banners now and get signed up.

Unveiling our preferred climate prediction market sites

Weather prediction site FAQs