Tech Prediction Markets 2026: How to Trade on Technology Events

What is betting on tech?

When it comes to ‘betting on tech’ the main way that we do this is through prediction markets. At prediction markets we don’t bet on tech, but instead we trade different contracts based on real-world events. These can be related to many different outcomes including the launch of new tech companies, an existing company reaching a certain turnover, or the latest AI model passing EU regulations.

It’s very similar to trading markets on culture, except you’re focusing on tech-based questions. One thing that’s important to understand is that you’re not betting on tech, you’re making predictions on whether certain outcomes will happen. This is very different from making predictions on specific outcomes at any sports-related market since the probability of the Yes/No answer being correct is driven by what the users believe will happen. The positives of this mean that there are no complicated probabilities to understand, but it also means that the price markets are influenced by what other users believe will happen.

How does prediction markets work?

At prediction markets, there are various different categories that you can search through to start trading markets on weather events and other topics you’re interested in. Some of the categories include:

• Politics
• Sports
• Crypto
• Finance
• Geopolitics
• Earnings
• Tech
• Culture
• World
• Economy
• Climate & science

What is tech prediction?

For the purposes of this article we’ll be focusing on making predictions on tech. When it’s time to start making predictions, you can choose between Yes or No in response to specific tech-related questions. Next to each answer, you’ll see a percentage which is the probability that one of the outcomes will be true according to other users.

This percentage is also connected with the price of the contract too. If the percentage is 83% then the price of the contract will be $0.83. This then means that the profit you receive if you’re right will be $0.17 per contract that you traded. Let’s take a look at a few examples of questions available to make predictions on.

Just remember that these are just examples of questions taken from a specific tech prediction market, and they can change quite a bit since they’re decided by other users. With the category of tech contract, there are also a list of sub-categories including AI, App Store, SpaceX, Apple, IPOs, Science, OpenAI, MicroStrategy, Big Tech and TikTok. So if you’re looking to make specific predictions, then you can quickly jump into one of these to narrow it down.

An overview of making tech predictions

There are lots of different options for trading contracts on all things tech that you can take. Some tech contracts are more beginner friendly than others, so be sure to consider your trading experience before deciding which ones to go for.

We’d always recommend that beginners start small and then work your way up. When you trade a contract, you’ll always have a choice of how many you take. The price of the contract will also let you know the probability that other users expect it to be true.

Tech predictions pros and cons

We’ll share our top picks for tech prediction sites but before that, here are a few advantages and disadvantages to consider with tech prediction markets:

Top three sites for making tech predictions

You can trade on various tech-based contracts at a few different prediction markets, although there are far less of them available than traditional betting sites. To help you figure out which prediction market is the one for you, we’ve put together a list to help you compare our favorite three sites to each other. Each of these three sites have a few different features that make it better suited to different traders.

Kalshi: A popular prediction market site

Kalshi is the most popular prediction market site in the US and for very good reason. This site is US-regulated and CFTC-supervised, which essentially means that it meets all of the necessary regulations to operate in the US. At Kalshi, you can make predictions on future outcomes based on Yes or No answers. Sometimes the answers may be more specific than Yes or No, but there will always be two options.

If you sign up to Kalshi, you can choose from a variety of categories to choose from, although within tech the specific markets include AI, Space and Energy. It’s a good idea to have a browse of the site for Kalshi event contracts before signing up to check whether they allow predictions on the specific topics you’re interested in. Kalshi also has a mobile app which can be downloaded from both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Polymarket: Trade on a variety of tech-based contracts

The best thing about Polymarket is how easy the platform is to use. When we loaded up the site, we could easily navigate to the tech-based contract options and then had a list of sub-categories to choose from. The probability of the different outcomes are easy to see, and all you need to do is scroll down until you find the contract you’d like to trade on.

Signing up to Polymarket is also pretty straightforward so you can get started trading contracts within a few minutes. Another thing that makes Polymarket popular among traders is that it has a downloadable mobile app. You can download this app onto both Apple and Android devices, so it’s available for all users to enjoy trading on the go.

Crypto.com: A crypto-focused platform

Crypto.com is another option for predicting outcomes on future events, with plenty of markets available. One thing to keep in mind here is that Crypto.com is a crypto-only platform which means that you’ll need to use cryptocurrencies to deposit funds. This prediction market focuses primarily on making predictions on crypto and stock prices, although there are a few tech options too.

Crypto.com also has a mobile app which makes it even easier to make your predictions on the go. Setting up your account only takes a few minutes and with no fees, predicting future outcomes is easier than ever.

How to sign up to prediction markets

If you’d like to sign up to your chosen prediction market, then you’ll be happy to hear that the process is super simple and straightforward. Here we’ve written an example of how to sign up to Polymarket, but the process is similar for most platforms.

1. Click on the page banners for your chosen prediction market which will take you straight over to the site.

2. Click on the blue Sign Up button in the top right hand corner.

3. A pop-up box will then appear, asking you to either login with Google or enter your email address.

4. If you click on the Google option, then you can sign in quickly with your existing account.

5. Enter the verification code that the site has sent into your email inbox.

6. Your login will then be confirmed and you’ll be asked to create a unique username.

7. Tick to confirm that you agree to the T&Cs and click Continue.

8. Enter your personal details and click submit to create your new account.

You can then start depositing funds into the account to get started making predictions. Some sites will only allow specific payment options, like Crypto.com that only allows deposits with cryptocurrencies. At Polymarket, you can make deposits instantly with PayPal up to a maximum of $10,000. Once you’ve got your account loaded up, you can then start exploring trading markets on crypto events and tech.

Conclusion – Place predictions on tech outcomes

Although you can’t bet on tech in the traditional way, making predictions on the outcomes of tech companies is a fun way to get involved. Instead of trying to work out complicated probabilities, all you need to do is decide between two outcomes, usually Yes or No in response to a specific question. For example if the question was ‘Which company has the best AI model by the end of February?’ and select Yes or No for Google.

To get started with placing your predictions on tech-related questions, you can sign up to your chosen site using the page banners or direct links. You can then start exploring the most current predictions across a whole variety of categories.

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