An overview of prediction markets
You’ll find several providers offering access to prediction markets online today in the US. While we’re talking about UFC in this guide, you should know that prediction markets quite often cover a huge variety of areas. Look at these for some examples of the markets and topic areas you might see.
| Subject Area | Example Prediction Market Topics |
| Sports | UFC, soccer, tennis, Formula 1 |
| Politics | Elections, local, international, US Presidential elections |
| Economics | Fed decisions, gas prices, rate hikes |
| Climate | Temperatures, natural disasters |
How an individual prediction market works
Regardless of topic, each prediction market is based on two possibilities:
- The event will occur (Yes)
- The event won’t occur (No)
This means that every prediction market you see will give you a question that can be answered with either yes or no. We’ll give you a UFC example to show you how this works.
One current prediction market revolves around who could be the Lightweight Title Holder in UFC on December 31st this year. Over half a dozen names were listed, but Justin Gaethje is currently at the top of the list. At the time of writing, 81% of people who have purchased event contracts think he will be the title holder at the end of the year. This means 81% of people taking part in the prediction market have opted for the yes outcome.
You could also choose the no outcome if you don’t think Justin will hold the title at that time. You’d join around 19% of people who believe the same thing in this case.
How much does each event contract cost?
The price is derived from the percentage of people backing that option. In this case, since 81% of people have gone for Justin Gaethje, each event contract is priced at $0.81. And in case you’re wondering, if you were to back the no option, you’d have a price of $0.19 per event contract.
We also found Arman Tsarukyan next on the list. Only 14% of people believed that he would take the title by the end of this year. This meant that each ‘yes’ event contract for Tsarukyan was priced at $0.14.
It’s therefore up to you whether you go for the yes or no option for a particular fighter. You can also see that while plenty of people are backing Gaethje to come out on top, you may decide not to go with the majority and back the no option instead. The current event contract for that outcome is priced lower, and would therefore produce a bigger profit if it turned out to be correct.
How many event contracts can you purchase?
It’s largely up to you, although most sites set some kind of minimum. This could be a dollar amount or a minimum number of trades. You can check this detail in the help center for a relevant site before you proceed.
You should be able to access help center info if you’re using a
sports prediction market app
rather than a website, too. Check for a section on event contracts – or alternatively the terms for trading in event contracts – to find the relevant details.
How does an individual market resolve?
When you’re viewing information for a UFC prediction market – or indeed any other prediction market – you should be able to read specific details of how the market will resolve. This usually means one or more things must occur for the result to become known and confirmed. Once the conditions are met, the prediction market will resolve – or complete or finish, if you prefer.
You may also see information for certain UFC markets that explain how a market may result in a 50/50 outcome. This usually occurs in the event that the match ends in a draw or no contest. This relatively unusual outcome means that the pool (the funds taken from all event contracts purchased by all participants) is evenly split between those taking part.
In this case, everyone would receive $0.50 for each event contract they had previously purchased. This only happens when an event does not result in a clear yes or no outcome for the question posed for that specific event contract. If it applies to a prediction market you’re looking at in the UFC topic area, you will see confirmation of this in the market rules section.
What if your pick is correct?
It doesn’t matter whether you’ve purchased event contracts at the
best tennis prediction market sites
online or you’ve backed Petr Yan to become the UFC Bantamweight Title Holder at the end of this year. Either way, if you get it right, you will receive $1 per event contract.
So, if you purchased 50 of those, you’ll receive $50. If you purchased 100 of them, you’ll receive $100, and so on. You can then work out your profit by subtracting the amount you purchased your event contracts for, plus any applicable fees.
What if your pick is wrong?
If you picked the wrong outcome, you’ll be empty handed. You don’t get the amount back that you spent on event contracts, and you won’t receive anything as you picked the outcome that didn’t occur.
Top places to explore prediction markets
| Prediction Markets | Welcome Bonus | App Availability |
| Polymarket Review | Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus | iOS & Android |
| Kalshi Review | Trade $25 Get $25 | iOS & Android |
| Crypto.com Review | Earn up to $300 in CRO | iOS & Android |
| Gemini Review | Trade $100 Get $20 in Bitcoin | iOS & Android |
| Underdog Predict | Keep Your Million – Survivor Contest | iOS & Android |
| Robinhood Review | First Prediction: $10 on Us! | iOS & Android |
| OG.com | Trade $50 Get $75 | Website only |
| OG.com | Trade $10, Get $10 Welcome Offer | iOS & Android |
| FanDuel Predicts | Deposit $10 Get $10 | iOS & Android |
| PrizePicks Review | Play $5, Get $50 | iOS & Android |
| Fanatics Markets | Trade $75, Get $75 in Trade Credits | iOS & Android |
| Coinbase | N/A | iOS & Android |
| DraftKings Predict | 100% First Trade Match, Up to $75 | iOS & Android |
| Sleeper Markets | N/A | iOS & Android |
| MooMoo | Up to $1,000 in NVDA Stock | iOS & Android |
| ROLR | N/A | Website only |
| WeBull | N/A | iOS & Android |
| Interactive Brokers | $10 in Bonus Trades on Signup | iOS & Android |
| Novig | Spend $5 Get $50 in Novig Coins | iOS & Android |
| TruthPredict | N/A | Website only |
Our suggestions for the best UFC prediction market sites
Now that you know how these prediction markets work, let’s review some of the leading sites with coverage of UFC and MMA events. Many of these qualify as the
best Formula 1 prediction market sites
as well, since they cover lots of different sporting areas.
Polymarket: a prediction markets bonus
Polymarket: Pros and Cons
- Plenty of prediction market topics
- Trending and breaking areas of interest
- Lots of predictions in all major subject areas
- User-friendly site design
Make an initial deposit of $10 and Polymarket will give you a $20 trading bonus as a new member. You’ll be able to access all the available sports prediction markets via their mobile app, available to US residents.
We found Polymarket easy to explore. If you enter UFC in the search box, you’ll find all the current prediction markets displayed in front of you in just a second or two. Most use a UFC logo to highlight them more easily. The exception is where the prediction market focuses on a certain fighter, in which case you’ll see their image instead. You’ll find plenty of markets covering Fight Night and potential champions in certain weight categories, along with several options relating to specific fights.
Kalshi: offers bug bounties and incentives
Kalshi: Pros and Cons
- Find markets via search facility
- Extensive range of prediction markets
- Clear fees system
- Large help center
- Limited promos for existing customers
Become a member of Kalshi and you can watch for potential bugs to crop up. If you’re the first to find them, you could receive a bug bounty. Kalshi also provides volume and liquidity incentives to consider once you’re familiar with how their prediction market service works.
A quick search for UFC events found 250 current markets. While Kalshi marks lots of these as MMA events (which they are), you can confirm the UFC status by accessing a particular prediction market to see more information for that option. The search results are easy to read, offering two options for each market, along with current percentages for each. We noted lots of Fight Night possibilities, along with names of fighters who you could predict might get a certain UFC title by the end of the year.
Crypto.com: Pros and Cons
- Sports, elections, culture, and economics markets
- Low commission for trading
- Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments
- No crypto prediction markets
Regulated by the CFTC, available throughout the US, and available in English, you’ll find plenty to appreciate at Crypto.com. A quick glance at their official apps in the App Store and the Google Play Store reveals an impressive rating from thousands of users in both cases.
You may notice a welcome bonus offered by Crypto.com, but this doesn’t apply if you’re intending only to use prediction markets there. That said, you’ll find many advantages to choosing this prediction market service. It’s a good pick if you’re new to the idea, as you’ll find plenty of options to choose who you think will win a particular fight. Crypto.com always provides clear percentages and a smart format that’s easy to understand, even on your first visit there.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Top tips for trying some UFC prediction markets
Even if you understand exactly how these prediction markets work, and you’ve been following UFC and mixed martial arts for years, you can still likely benefit from the following tips before you get underway making any potential predictions. And if you’re reading about prediction markets for the first time, you should certainly follow this guidance.
🔍 Browse the available UFC prediction markets on our recommended sites
You’ll find the
best prediction markets
for UFC and MMA across all our suggested sites here, but of course, choosing your favorite site is down to personal taste too.
For example, do you prefer to focus on picking the person you think will win a fight? Would you rather have more options for a single fight, such as how long it might last? Another option to consider is whether you can build a combo – something we found we could do at Polymarket, for example.
Review each site carefully and think about the event contracts you’d most like to purchase. Check how many of those are available from each site and then you can decide where to sign up.
📝 Create an account at your preferred website or app
It shouldn’t take long to set up an account, but make sure you’re of age to do so at your chosen prediction market provider. You should also expect to provide some ID to complete this process, namely a passport or state driver’s license, along with some recent paperwork that proves where you live. This means you’ll complete the Know Your Customer requirements (KYC).
💰 Confirm any minimum deposit requirement before making your first deposit
We’ve seen that you can claim a welcome bonus on a minimum $10 deposit at Polymarket, so make sure you look at whether the usual minimum deposit may be slightly higher to qualify for any bonuses you might see.
This is hugely important. You’ll never be guaranteed to pick the correct outcome of a UFC fight or event, so it’s best only to use funds you can happily lose if that should be the outcome. Never attempt to chase any losses, either.
Note whether you’re required to purchase a minimum number of event contracts for your chosen prediction market, too. Most sites do have minimums in place, although they’re usually on the rather low side. It could be a financial minimum or a minimum number of event contracts to purchase.
📚 Read through the relevant help center
Here’s a feature you’ll find at all the best prediction market services, whether they’re provided via an app or website. They usually provide clear guides on what to expect, written with newbies in mind.
You’ll also be able to find out more about other important aspects, such as:
- Relevant fees for purchasing event contracts
- How markets are created
- Liquidity and how it works
🥊 Build your UFC knowledge
Research the fighters, look at their individual histories within the sport, and compare them to potential opponents. You can never be sure you’ll pick the right outcome, no matter how much research you do, but it can help you understand the sport better. This is a good thing to do if you’re using the
best soccer prediction market sites, too.
Knowledge can also help you decide which event contracts to go with. It’s not just a question of backing your favorite fighters. You may decide to purchase event contracts for your favorite fighter to lose a UFC matchup, based on their recent history. Remember to look at data and history, rather than simply going with your favorites because you like them better.
What are the pros and cons of UFC prediction market websites?
You’ll find that many of these points are similar to ones you’d see if you were browsing the
best MLS prediction market sites
as well. It helps to have plenty of knowledge about UFC that you can tap into, to help you make informed predictions about the potential outcome of an event or market. Of course, you cannot guarantee you’ll be correct, but it’s still worth keeping that knowledge in mind.
Pros and Cons
- Available across the States
- Lots of event contracts
- Several top sites to consider
- All key matchups covered
Trade event contracts on leading UFC prediction market sites
While prediction markets can be challenging to understand if you’re new to them, they also provide you with a good way to keep track of what’s happening – or what could potentially happen – in the UFC and MMA fields. Be sure to visit each of our suggested sites by using the links we’ve provided to reach the official home of each. You’ll then be able to view all the current UFC prediction market options to see what’s out there. There’s certainly plenty of coverage given the popularity of mixed martial arts.
Some UFC event contracts give you a chance to back the outcome you think will happen for an upcoming event. Others allow you to predict the fighter you think might hold a particular title at the end of the current year. If you’re a UFC fan, you can see that prediction markets give you a different way to engage with mixed martial arts and the people who take part in them.
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Best UFC prediction market sites FAQs
⚡ Are prediction markets available throughout the US?
Yes, you should find you can access your preferred prediction market website or app in your home state. Prediction markets are federally regulated by the CFTC across the United States.
☝ What are the most popular UFC prediction markets just now?
It varies depending on what’s happening in the UFC calendar, but fans may find UFC prediction markets based on who a particular fighter will fight next, who will become a UFC champion this year, and who will become the champion in a particular weight class this year.
⌛ How much does an event contract cost in the UFC prediction markets category?
Each event contract will be priced at between $0.01 and $0.99, since it is based on the percentage of people who believe that option will be the outcome.
⏩ If you pick the correct outcome in a prediction market for a UFC event or fight, what will you receive?
Every correct event contract receives $1. If you had purchased 100 event contracts for a certain outcome and you were correct, you would receive $100. Remember to subtract the amount those event contracts cost to purchase, along with any nominal fees that may be involved.
