Pros and cons of event trading
- Many events to trade on
- Very affordable with shares as low as $0.1
- You can sell off shares before the market settles
- Easy to lose your shares if your prediction is wrong
What is event prediction?
Event prediction, as you can tell from the name, involves trading on the future outcome of an event. It shares some similarities with betting on a sportsbook in the sense that you can only claim winnings if your prediction is correct.
The event prediction market is also very diverse, featuring options like sports, cryptocurrencies, business, and finance, among others. Even better, they are based on real-world events, which adds to the overall excitement.
How do you trade on events?
To trade on events, you’ll need to visit an event prediction market platform. These platforms offer trading options across the various markets we listed above. However, instead of betting on lines like in sportsbooks, you are purchasing shares or trading contracts.
So here’s how it works. The event prediction platform lists out different predictions like so:
- Blackberry will release a new phone in 2027
- Samsung’s trifold device will sell for $2700
- The value of Bitcoin will rise to $150,000 by 2027
These are events that have not occurred yet, and you are predicting which is bound to happen. Each event typically has probabilities of 0.01% – 100%, which indicate the probability of the event occurring. It also determines the share’s trading price.
So, an event with chances of 0.1% means that you will buy the shares or contract for $0.20, while probability of 80% mean the shares will cost $0.80. By purchasing any shares, you agree with the prediction, and if you are correct, the value of your shares will rise to $1, leaving you with a profit. However, if you are wrong, the value drops to $0, meaning you lose everything.
In most cases, these prediction markets give you a “Yes” or “No” option in front of predictions. All you have to do is click on the option you prefer to choose your prediction. It’s that simple. We recommend taking a look at our guide, which provides deeper context on the question, “What are prediction markets?” for more information.
Is event trading legal?
Now that you understand event trading and how it works, it is only fair to wonder if
prediction markets are legal. This becomes even more important if you are trying to trade from the United States, where laws surrounding these types of events vary by state.
The good news is that prediction market sites are legal, but this depends on the state you are playing from and the platform you choose. Trading on prediction markets is not categorized as gambling, which makes it legal in many states. However, the platform still needs a valid license for the region you are playing in.
What’s more, you will need to be at least 18 years of age to trade on any event prediction platform. Again, this depends on your location, which is why we recommend reviewing the terms and conditions page and confirming compliance with your local laws before signing up for an account on an event prediction site.
How to register on an event trading site
Creating an account and trading on your favorite events is straightforward with our step-by-step guide below.
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Choose a platform from our list of the
best prediction market sites
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Hit the respective banner for the site to be redirected to the home page
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Select the “Sign up” button and input your personal details. This usually includes your preferred username and email
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A verification code will be sent to the email you provided
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Enter this to verify your email and complete the KYC verification.
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Choose one of the deposit options and fund your account. In most cases, you’ll find payment methods like credit/debit cards and bank transfers. However, our
Kalshi vs Polymarket
comparison shows that cryptocurrencies will also be available, depending on your region.
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Once your deposit reflects, go through the available prediction markets and buy a share or contract.
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Wait for the market to settle, and if your prediction is correct, you claim your winnings. If not, your shares lose value.
There are many event prediction sites available, all offering the best. However, not every platform is built the same way, and some are ultimately better than others. Therefore, it is important to choose your preferred prediction by evaluating key factors, as we’ve explained below.
Legality
As we already mentioned, event prediction sites are not legal in every region. This means you’ll need to find a platform with a license to operate in your state. This information is usually available on the terms and conditions page, which we recommend you check before signing up.
Market coverage
There are many markets available at event prediction sites. Going for a platform that offers you more choices means you’ll always have an event to trade on. Based on our
Kalshi vs Robinhood
comparison, here are some of the events to expect on the top platforms.
| Event |
How it works |
| Sports |
This involves trading on the future outcomes of various sports events, such as football, basketball, soccer, and baseball. |
| Cryptocurrencies |
Some event trading sites allow you to predict future prices or innovations in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DOGE. |
| Tech |
Here, you are making predictions on tech and innovations that might arise in the future. |
| AI |
In this instance, you are trading on AI and the likely changes that might crop up in the future. |
While these are some of the more popular markets, top sites will let you trade on events in business, finance, earnings, and more.
While bonuses and other ongoing promotions are not as common on event trading platforms as on sportsbooks, they do exist. This means that if they are important to you, it is crucial to opt for a site that offers welcome bonuses to give you a head start on your trading.
Do your research and compare those with bonuses that align with your trading needs. Once you find one that works, register and claim your bonus to start trading. Remember to read the bonus terms and conditions, so you don’t get blindsided.
Trading fees
Some event prediction sites attach fees to trades, while others do not. Settling for a platform that comes with large fees can quickly eat into your bankroll, especially if you are an active trader. Therefore, you’ll want to choose a platform with fees aligned with your risk appetite.
Some sites charge a fixed fee on all transactions, while others may charge a fee on withdrawals. Weigh your options and pick one that works for you.
Conclusion: Is it worth trading on events?
Ultimately, this is dependent on your needs. If you want to try a different option that is legal in more regions, then event trading might be for you. Unlike sports betting, you don’t need to wait for the market to settle, and can sell off your shares or contracts even before the market settles. For us, this is a huge plus, since you are not tied down and can back out at any time.
What’s more, top event prediction platforms feature a long list of markets to trade on, including AI, tech, cryptocurrencies, finance, and more. Lastly, shares are very affordable, starting from as little as $0.1, depending on the event. If this is something you feel is right for you, click our links to register on a top market prediction site and start trading!
Start trading with these predictions
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What is event trading FAQs
❓ What is an event trading site?
These are platforms that let you predict the outcomes of various future events. These typically focus on markets like AI, Tech, sports, and more, offering you a chance to profit if your predictions are correct.
💰 Can you sell your shares before the market settles?
Yes, you can. In fact, this is a major edge you get from trading on an event prediction site. You can back out at any time by selling off your shares, even before the market settles.
👥 Who can trade on events?
Anyone who is at least 18 years old and in a state that supports the event prediction platforms can register and start trading on events. Visit the terms and conditions page of your preferred platform and confirm with your local laws to avoid surprises.
