Pros and cons of using prediction markets and sportsbooks
Pros and Cons
- Prediction markets offer a more diverse market selection
- Sportsbooks feature many ongoing bonuses and promotions
- You can buy and sell positions at prediction markets anytime
- Both may not be available in some states.
What is a prediction market?
So, let’s start with defining what prediction markets are. These are sites that allow you to trade on the outcomes of future events across sports, finance, business, and cryptocurrencies. However, unlike sportsbooks, you are not making a bet on set odds. Instead, you make predictions on events by buying shares based on real-world events and the collective expertise of traders.
If your prediction is correct, the price of your share climbs to $1, allowing you to make a profit. However, if your prediction is wrong, the value drops to $0.
Every event has probabilities of 0.1% – 100%, indicating the probability of the event occurring. This also determines the prices of shares: 0.1% corresponds to $0.10, 0.60% to $0.60, and so on. Purchasing a share or contract means you agree with the prediction, and you get a profit or loss when the market settles. It’s that simple.
Unlike sportsbooks, however, you have the option of selling your shares and cashing out anytime you like, even if the market has not settled. You can check out our
Kalshi vs Polymarket
comparison to get a better feel of how prediction sites work.
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
What are sportsbooks?
Sportsbooks are regular online betting sites that let you place wagers against the house. Unlike prediction sites, the sportsbook sets the odds and keeps a margin of your wager for itself. Then, if your wager is correct, you receive a payout based on the odds set for the game.
Sports betting sites focus on sports rather than various events. What’s more, you’ll typically find bet types such as moneylines, spreads, teasers, and parlays, which generally are not available on prediction markets, since they are not betting sites.
Is it legal to use prediction sites?
Now, considering that event trading platforms take a different approach from regular sportsbooks, it is only fair to wonder if
prediction markets are legal. The simple answer is yes. However, just like sportsbooks, this is dependent on the platform and state you reside in.
While a prediction site might be legal in specific states, it may not be legal in others. As we noted in our
Crypto.com review, it is best to review the terms and conditions first or check your local laws before signing up for any platform.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: what’s the difference?
By now, it is clear that prediction markets and sportsbooks are different. However, aside from their mode of operations, there are many other differences between them, which we have compiled in the table below to make things easier.
| Features |
Prediction market |
Sportsbook |
| Mode of operation |
A platform where you trade against others by buying and selling shares. |
Bettors wager against the house using fixed odds |
| Prices/odds setting |
Prices are dependent on supply and demand, and based on real-world events |
Odds are set by in-house specialists |
| Event coverage |
Offers trading options on various markets, including sports, business, finance, cryptocurrency, AI, tech, and more. |
Focuses extensively on sports events, including soccer, football, baseball, and UFC, among others. |
| How do you win |
If your prediction is correct, your shares rise to $1. However, if incorrect, the value drops to $0 |
If you back the winning team, you are paid out at the odds already set. |
| Cash-out feature |
Available, and you can use it at any time by selling your shares even before the market settles |
Available in selected markets where the sportsbook allows |
| Volatility |
Prices are prone to change based on market demand and supply |
Odds don’t change after you make your wager |
| Bonuses and promotions |
Fewer bonuses for new and existing players |
Lots of ongoing promotions and offers ranging from free bets to deposit match offers and loyalty programs. |
Which should you choose?
The ideal option is dependent on your unique needs.
If you prefer an activity that is not the same as gambling, going with a prediction site might be your best choice. They give you a similar participating experience with greater flexibility, since they cover more markets, including sports, cryptocurrencies, tech, politics, and AI. You can also purchase or sell shares as you like on the
best prediction market sites, allowing you to change your position as you please.
In contrast, sportsbooks are a better choice if you are particular about sports and want a pure betting experience. These platforms offer better coverage of sports events, allowing you to using various bet options such as moneylines, parlays, teasers, and more.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: Both solid options for varying needs
Prediction market platforms and sportsbooks both let you predict the outcomes of future events. However, there is a huge difference in how they operate, which we have explored in this guide. All that’s left is to decide which is right for you, based on the information we’ve provided, and pick your preferred option from our recommended list. Then, click their banners attached on this page to register and start trading or making picks.
Check out our favorite sport predictions
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks FAQs
🤔 Are prediction sites the same as sportsbooks?
No, they are not. A prediction market platform lets you trade on future outcomes of various events and is not considered gambling. In contrast, sportsbooks are pure gambling platforms where you wager on specific sports events against the house. Prices change on prediction markets based on demand and supply, while sportsbooks set the odds you can wager on.
📈 Are prediction markets accurate?
Yes, prediction markets are deemed more accurate because prices are determined by traders’ collective knowledge, which changes in response to the real world. In contrast, the sportsbook determines odds with the help of in-house specialists, aiming to protect the house from losses while making sure bettors have fun. This means accuracy is not the priority on sportsbooks, unlike prediction sites.
🎯 Which is ideal for casual users?
Sportsbooks’ markets are easier since odds and payouts are fixed. What’s more, you only need an understanding of the sports event in question to wager and make correct picks. Prediction sites, on the other hand, require more analysis and are better for traders who prefer the complexity of a changing market.
