Quick facts to note about making economic predictions
- Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. They do not support traditional betting.
- There are a variety of event contracts to trade, including those revolving around inflation, employment reports, and interest rates.
- When predicting economic outcomes, your forecast has to be accurate for you to get a payout.
A close look at economy predictions and how they work
Let’s clearly state that
prediction markets
are not betting sites. You won’t be engaging in any form of betting activity when dealing with economic events. Instead, you’re focused on trading event contracts.
For each contract, you will find markets with Yes or No positions, priced between $0.1 and $0.99. You buy any of these positions, then choose whether to sell them in the future or wait till the event resolves. If your prediction is accurate after the event, you receive a $1 payout per contract.
To give you a clearer understanding of how this works, here is an example of an economic event contract:
Number of rate cuts in 2025?
Under this, you have multiple markets, each with its own positions and prices. Here are a few of them:
| Exactly 2 cuts |
Yes (4 cents), No (97 cents) |
| Exactly 3 cuts |
Yes (97 cents), No (5 cents) |
The prices also show you the market sentiments and the chances of that event happening. For instance, the Yes position in the “Exactly 3 cuts” market goes for 97 cents. This means there is a 97% chance that the number of rate cuts in 2025 will be exactly three.
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Types of economic events you can trade on prediction markets
One of the big advantages of trading on economic prediction markets is the fact that you’ll have access to a much more detailed selection of markets than you could ever hope to find at a sportsbook. These are just some of your options, which you can trade simply by purchasing a binary ‘Yes / No’ contract based on future outcomes, and as you’ll see, they can be very specific:
| Federal Reserve predictions | - Will the FOMC cut rates at their next meeting, or hike them?
- How many rate hikes or cuts will occur within a specific period of time?
|
| Economic Growth | - Will the economy stagnate, grow or enter into a recession?
- Will GDP growth in the US be at or above a specific percentage in Q4?
|
| Inflation and Consumer Price Index metrics | - Will Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) be higher than market consensus?
- Will CPI exceed a specific percentage in Q4?
|
| Labor and employment | - Will unemployment rise or fall beyond a specific percentage?
- How many new jobs will be created by a specific date?
|
Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood are the four sites and apps that we highly recommend, but there are many more incoming. Let us clarify that these are not betting sites. They are simply trading platforms where you can predict the possible outcome of various economic events.
| Prediction Markets |
Welcome Bonus |
App Availability |
| Kalshi Review |
$10 bonus |
iOS & Android |
| Polymarket Review |
Up to $100 Refund |
iOS & Android |
| Crypto.com Review |
$50 bonus |
iOS & Android |
| Robinhood Review |
Up to $200 in reward stock |
iOS & Android |
| Underdog Predict |
200% Up to $100 |
iOS & Android |
| PrizePicks Review |
Play $5, Get $50 |
iOS & Android |
| FanDuel Predicts |
Deposit $10 Get $10 |
iOS & Android |
| Fanatics Markets |
Up to $1000 in Trade Credit |
iOS & Android |
| OG.com |
Up to 100$ Bonus |
iOS & Android |
| Coinbase |
N/A |
iOS & Android |
| DraftKings Predict |
N/A |
iOS & Android |
| Novig |
⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval |
iOS & Android |
| Railbird |
N/A |
Website only |
| PredictIt |
N/A |
Website only |
| Sporttrade |
⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval |
iOS & Android |
| ProphetX |
⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval |
Website only |
Kalshi — Innovative social feature
Kalshi: Pros and Cons
- Find markets via search facility
- Extensive range of prediction markets
- Clear fees system
- Large help center
- Limited promos for existing customers
This platform scores highly because of several features, one of which is its social feature. It has an “Ideas” section, a social hub where users can interact with other users. You can post ideas, follow experienced traders, bookmark conversations, and even get answers to platform-related questions.
When it comes to economic event contracts, Kalshi does an excellent job. It has a section dedicated to economic events such as inflation, employment, oil, and federal decisions. The interface is well-organized, making it easy for you to trade contracts and get your winnings. Other standout features include functional mobile applications, reliable payment methods, and decent customer service. They also offer contract on various other events, including an excellent selection of
sports prediction markets.
| Feature |
Details |
| 💰 Welcome Bonus |
$10 bonus |
| 📱 App Availability |
iOS & Android |
| ⚡ Payout Speed |
3 – 4 business days |
| 💹 Economic Markets |
Fed rate decisions, Economic indicators, Commodity prices, Treasury yields |
| 🚫 Restricted States |
AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH |
| ⭐ Key Features |
• Dedicated section for economic event contracts
• Post ideas, follow experienced traders, bookmark conversations
• Reliable payment methods
• CFTC-regulated |
Polymarket — Great coverage for domestic and foreign economic events
Polymarket: Pros and Cons
- Plenty of prediction market topics
- Trending and breaking areas of interest
- Lots of predictions in all major subject areas
- User-friendly site design
Polymarket gets a thumbs-up for coverage. In the Economy section, we found hundreds of economic-related event contracts revolving around topics such as trade wars, taxes, Fed rates, inflation, and treasuries. The site and app also feature social hubs where you can view traders’ profiles, previous trades, and portfolios.
The user experience of the trading platform is impressive. Both the site and app have a sleep interface that suits beginners and experienced traders alike. For payments, the platform supports a range of methods, including debit cards and cryptocurrencies. We also like that there is only a small 0.01% fee on taker orders.
| Feature |
Details |
| 💰 Welcome Bonus |
Coming soon |
| 📱 App Availability |
iOS & Android |
| ⚡ Payout Speed |
Within 24 hours |
| 💹 Economic Markets |
Domestic and foreign economic events, International trade, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy |
| 🚫 Restricted States |
Currently in Beta – limited U.S. access |
| ⭐ Key Features |
• Great coverage for domestic and foreign economic events
• Sleek interface suitable for beginners
• Only 0.01% fee on taker orders
• Supports debit cards and cryptocurrencies |
Crypto.com: Pros and Cons
- Sports, elections, culture, and economics markets
- Low commission for trading
- Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments
- No crypto prediction markets
The first thing that catches your attention when you launch Crypto.com is the user-friendly interface. It has a dark theme, bold writing, and a well-organized layout that make navigation easy. This same functionality is what you enjoy on the mobile application. Whether you use the app or the website, you have access to 100+ economic event contracts, all of which follow the Yes/No format standard on prediction websites.
Crypto.com also has high liquidity for economic event contracts, meaning there is a good number of buyers and sellers. It allows the platform to execute trades quickly. The real-time updates are another highlight, as they provide you with the latest information and prices of the event contracts.
| Feature |
Details |
| 💰 Welcome Bonus |
$50 bonus |
| 📱 App Availability |
iOS & Android |
| ⚡ Payout Speed |
Within one hour (especially for crypto withdrawals) |
| 💹 Economic Markets |
100+ economic event contracts in Yes/No format |
| 🚫 Restricted States |
AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, NV, NY, OH |
| ⭐ Key Features |
• Well-organized layout for easy navigation
• High liquidity for economic event contracts
• Low commission for trading
• Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments (400+ cryptos) |
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Robinhood — Features a premium program and other incentives
Robinhood: Pros and Cons
- Apps for Android and iOS
- $0.01 commission per trade
- 24/7 live chat support
- Limited bonuses for prediction markets
Robinhood is one of the few prediction markers with a welcome incentive. It offers a free stick valued at $5 to $200 when you sign up, verify your account, and link your bank card. That’s not all; there are referral rewards and a Robinhood Gold program that offers various perks when you subscribe.
Its prediction market offers event contracts in various categories, including the Economy. You can easily trade these once your account is funded. For such transactions, the prediction market supports bank transfers, debit and credit cards, as well as mobile wallets. Another highlight is the speedy withdrawal processing, which allows you to get your funds within a few minutes to 24 hours, depending on your selected payment method.
| Feature |
Details |
| 💰 Welcome Bonus |
Up to $200 in reward stock |
| 📱 App Availability |
iOS & Android |
| ⚡ Payout Speed |
Few minutes to 24 hours (depending on payment method) |
| 💹 Economic Markets |
Economy event contracts across various categories, Economic indicators, Federal decisions, Market indices |
| 🚫 Restricted States |
AR, AZ, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, NV, OH |
| ⭐ Key Features |
• Premium Robinhood Gold program with various perks
• Referral rewards available
• Low $0.01 commission per trade
• Supports bank transfers, debit/credit cards, and mobile wallets |
How to predict the outcome of economic events
We have answered the question,
What are prediction markets? It’s time to provide a more detailed breakdown of how to trade economic event contracts on such platforms. Let’s get into it:
-
Choose a prediction market and sign up
Opt for reputable brands like Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, or Robinhood. We have provided a link to each one. Click the on-page banners to be redirected to the site, then tap the sign-up icon to kickstart the registration process.
Each of these platforms also has mobile apps for Android and iOS. If you prefer using your mobile device, download their app instead and register from there. The process is identical to what you will find when using a computer.
-
Verify your identity
This is one step you cannot skip. You need to provide clear documents that show who you are and your residential address. KYC verification can take from a few minutes to 48 hours, depending on the platform
-
Make a deposit
Remember that you’re trading event outcomes, and to trade, you need funds in your account. So, click the deposit or “+” icon, select a payment method, and provide your details. Follow the onscreen instructions to authorize the transaction.
-
Buy your positions
Navigate to the “Economy” section of the trading platform and click on an event contract. If there are markets under it, select the one you want before choosing whether to take a Yes or No position. Enter the number of contracts you want (remember that each one is valued between $0.01 and $0.99).
-
Hold or sell your position
As time passes, the probabilities and prices of your event contracts will change. The value can increase or decrease. Before the event is settled, you can sell your positions. If you sell at a higher price, you secure your extra wins.
For example, you buy 100 contracts, each at 46 cents. That means you spent a total of $46. You sell each one at 78 cents, giving you $78 ($32 extra). However, if you wait for the event to settle and your prediction is correct, you receive $1 for every accurate event contract.
Key factors that influence economic events contracts
Global trading volume throughout 2026 is projected to reach $1.3 trillion for economic events, but there are several factors that need to be taken into account before you dive in and start trading. In particular, it’s important to be aware of real-time probability shifts that could affect outcomes. The release of economic data also has a part to play, as do regulatory developments and changes. Even the behaviour of participants needs to be taken into consideration – so it’s essential to conduct thorough research, if you’re hoping for the most favorable outcomes when trading.
Data releases and information flow
Keep a close watch on economic indicators such as unemployment rates, CPI inflation information and interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, all of which can have an immediate effect on price adjustments.
Geopolitical events also have a part to play, whether through trade agreements and policy changes, or even wars. Anything affecting the general economic outlook has potential to impact contract probabilities and needs to be taken into consideration before and during trades.
Regulatory and operational factors
Regulations, including CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) jurisdiction, could potentially restrict or limit the availability of certain contracts, or alter their structure. It’s absolutely essential to have access to verifiable definitions of how contracts are settled, as ambiguous definitions can quickly lead to disputes.
Probability and market sentiment
Collective market opinion is directly reflected in the trading price, so for example, a contract price of $0.50 suggests a 50% likelihood of that even actually occurring. Trading volume and liquidity also play a part, with high-volume events generally showing tighter spreads alongside more efficient pricing. Low-liquidity contracts, on the other hand, will likely experience high volatility.
Biases and behaviors of participants
The combined knowledge of participants can often result in accurate markets, but this can’t be relied on. For example, high-volume traders can skew the results, particularly in markets with lower liquidity. And although many traders are looking to make a profit through accurate predictions, others may buy contracts as a way of offsetting potential losses from bank rate hikes.
Yes, it is safe. That is, if you use licensed exchanges like those we just recommended. These platforms operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so they abide by strict rules to ensure the safety of their users. That is one reason KYC verification is mandatory on any licensed trading site in the US.
In addition to being CFTC-regulated, the best prediction markets implement high-end encryption protocols that make it impossible for third parties to access your details. They support two-factor authentication that you can activate at any time to further protect your account.
Common mistakes when trading on economic events and how to avoid them
There’s no denying that trading on economic events is risky, with several potential pitfalls that you’ll need to be aware of, if you’re going to make the most of the opportunities on offer. There are no guarantees that trading outcomes will go in your favor, but an understanding of the most common mistakes will help you to make more informed decisions.
Failing to understand the nature of probability
It’s all too easy to confuse probability with certainty when considering whether an event will occur. This is where the majority of users come unstuck, assuming that a contract price of $0.70 – and therefore implied probability of 70% – ensures the predicted outcome will happen.
The probability, and associated contract price, is based on current information and the collective judgment of the market based on that information. This example carries a 30% risk, with no assurance that the wisdom of the crowd will actually prevail. It’s essential to keep in mind that the implied probability could be wrong before choosing your position.
Allowing psychological bias to interfere with trades
If you strongly favor a trading position, confirmation bias will encourage you to pay close attention to information that supports your preference. You may also give more weight to positions that support your personal affiliation, even though these factors have absolutely no bearing on actual outcomes.
Always keep in mind that your preferences have absolutely no bearing on either the contract price or the final outcome of a trade. Make sure to research your position thoroughly, and endeavour to keep your preferred outcomes out of the equation when considering your approach to trading economic prediction markets.
Failing to develop an exit strategy
It can be all too easy to simply dive into economic prediction markets without having a firm exit strategy in place, but this approach is unlikely to lead to long-term successful outcomes. This is a competitive market in which traders with a clearly-defined framework have a clear advantage.
Take time to consider any information you might have that the market hasn’t priced in. It’s also a good idea to limit individual contracts to less than 10% of your overall prediction market capital, ensuring you’ll be able to recover any losses. Taking time to set out clear rules about your trades in advance will enable you to steer the steadiest course through any market turbulence, ensuring you’ll have funds left for further trades another day.
Holding out for resolution rather than exiting early
Many traders on economic prediction markets feel they should wait it out for the final outcome, but this introduces potential for unnecessary risk, including the release of new information which could reverse current price trends.
An early exit could allow you to reap benefits that might otherwise have been lost. For example, if you buy a ‘Yes’ position at 20 cents, but go on to sell at 80 cents, you’ll be making a profit without having to wait it out for a potentially unfavorable outcome.
Revenge trading in an attempt to minimize losses
Even the most successful traders in economic prediction markets get it wrong from time to time, so it’s important to stop and take stock before attempting to win back losses. Allowing your emotions to control your decision-making processes rarely leads to favorable outcomes, with analysis suggesting that revenge trading can reduce the quality of decisions by more than 70%.
Try to steer clear of rushed trades in response to a loss, and perhaps even consider pausing your trading for a while, until you’re feeling fully in control. Decisions made on the spur of the moment can quickly lead to further losses, so it’s preferable to step aside until you’re ready to study the markets and dip your toe back into prediction market waters.
Legality of economic prediction sites
Prediction markets are regulated in the US under federal law, so you can be confident that they’re legal. These sites operate under the oversight of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enabling them to offer event contracts on economic markets, alongside other options, including weather, politics and even sporting outcomes.
Economic prediction sites operate in an entirely different way to sports betting platforms and online casinos, so there’s no house edge or set odds. Instead, users are betting against each other, so these sites work as exchanges and take a commission from the trades. There are strict rules prohibiting insider training, and all users need to be fully aware of any regulations that apply to their chosen platform, particularly when it comes to making use of information that isn’t in the public domain.
How probabilities work on economic prediction markets
Whether you’re making economic predictions or betting on sports outcomes, there’s a high degree of risk involved. But there are several differences to be aware of, not least in the way that you’ll be participating.
When trading economic predictions, you’ll be buying into a percentage chance of a specific event occurring. Binary Yes / No outcomes award a $1 payout if you’re correct, or $0 if your prediction is wrong. The trading price indicates the market probability of each event actually happening, so if a contract is priced at $0.70, for example, there’s a 70% anticipated probability that the event will occur. All prices are determined by the participants, rather than by bookmakers, operating on the wisdom of crowds, which certainly isn’t infallible.
In essence, the peer-to-peer mechanism for economic prediction markets enables all users to trade together, with prices that adjust according to current market activity. This is in direct contrast to sportsbooks, in which the bookmaker controls all odds and payouts, with bets placed directly against bookmakers.
Additionally, sportsbook wagers are usually locked in place until the event is over, although some platforms offer an early cashout option. However, when trading economic prediction markets, it’s possible to buy or sell positions at any time, so that users can take advantage of emerging trends to encourage more informed decisions and minimize potential losses too.
3 simple tips for economic predictions
As traders ourselves, we have hands-on experience and approaches that have helped us make more successful economic predictions. Below are our best three tips:
📅 Stay updated on economic calendars
Always be in the loop. This is the same advice we gave when offering tips for making
political predictions. Since these economic events have predictable schedules, you can easily follow up on meetings and reports to see what’s new. With this, you can buy positions with higher winning chances.
🔍 Start small and focus on markets you understand
When predicting economic outcomes for the first time, limit yourself to a few contracts on events you’re familiar with. Use the time to learn how prediction markets work, how prices shift, and the event-settling process.
📊 Diversify your positions across various events
This is a good move only after you have a better grasp of economic event contracts. With this knowledge, you can expand your reach. Instead of buying bulk contracts under a single event, spread the amount and buy positions attached to different outcomes.
Pros and cons of using economy prediction markets
Before dipping your toes into the economic prediction market waters, it’s a good idea to ensure you have a good understanding of the various advantages and disadvantages. This won’t guarantee successful outcomes, but at least you’ll be aware of the essential facts, which could influence your decisions.
Pros and Cons
- Easy to understand probability forecasts with straightforward Yes / No outcomes
- Real-time probability-based insights help to inform the decision-making process
- More participants help to make markets more accurate
- Open to insider manipulation
- Potential for high losses
You now understand how economic prediction markets work. We recommend starting with established platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, or Crypto.com, all of which offer multiple markets for economic events. They’re also licensed, safe, and have dedicated apps you can download if you prefer making trades from your smartphone.
The first steps are straightforward: choose a platform that aligns with your preferences, complete the registration, and fund your account. Start small to get the hang of the process before expanding your portfolio. The best part is that prediction markets have very low entry barriers, so you don’t have to purchase bulk event contracts as a new user. You can check out these prediction markets today by clicking on our on-page banners.
Sign up with these economic predictions
1.
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Underdog Predict is a registered FCM offering event contracts. Trades may be placed on CDNA, a registered DCM, powered by UDM Services, LLC. Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all. Must be a U.S. resident. Terms apply: underdogpredict.com. Content is promotional and is not a recommendation to trade.
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18+ If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com: Buy, Sell & Trade Crypto with a Trusted App | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Terms apply. Trading involves risk of loss. Bonus credits cannot be withdrawn immediately.
Economy prediction markets FAQs
🌐 Can I have more than one account on economy prediction markets?
No, you cannot have more than one account per platform. However, you can open accounts on more than one prediction market.
💵 How much do I need to start trading economic event contracts?
You can start trading economic event contracts after depositing as little as $10 to $20 on most sites/apps. Each position is priced between $0.1 and $0.99, so you buy as many contracts as you want.
💰 Do I always get a payout after predicting the outcome of economic events?
No, you don’t. You only get a payout if your prediction is accurate. If the prediction is not correct, you won’t receive any winnings.
