How does betting on crypto work?
Well, first of all we wouldn’t refer to it as betting on crypto, as it’s not really accurate. Instead, we’d refer to it as making predictions on the price of cryptocurrencies, using a prediction market. If you’re wondering what
prediction market sites
that we recommend for
trading markets on culture
and crypto, we’ll get into that a little bit later. Making predictions on cryptocurrencies isn’t as popular as doing it on sports events, but it’s definitely a niche market that’s growing in popularity. So, how does it actually work?
Well, at a prediction market you’re essentially trading on user’s predictions of specific cryptocurrencies or other markets. You can only predict a yes or no answer to a question. Once members have selected their position, a price will be set which usually ranges up to $0.99 per contract. You can then choose the number of contracts that you wish to purchase and once the opposite side reaches a $1 per contract, the trade occurs.
If you make your prediction on the correct side, then you’ll keep the full $1 per contract price. The price of the contract at this point is quite helpful, as it demonstrates the larger market’s estimate of the event occurring, but it’s also determined by other traders. Of course, it’s never a sure thing, especially in predicting something as volatile as crypto, so it’s best to start small if you’re new to it.
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Pros and cons crypto predictions
If you’re a beginner to prediction markets, here are a few upsides and downsides to give you an equal insight:
Pros and Cons
- Make predictions on a variety of cryptocurrencies
- Mobile prediction options available
- Prediction markets suitable for beginners and experienced traders
- Many sites are crypto-only
Our top three crypto prediction sites
You may be thinking well this sounds great but ‘I’ve no idea where to start’. Fear not, we’ve put together this list of our favorite three prediction markets. We’ll point out some of the best features about each of these sites, including the
trading markets on tech events
available to place predictions on. If you’d like to sign up to any of these prediction markets, then you can do so by clicking on our page banners.
| Prediction Markets | Welcome Bonus | App Availability |
| Kalshi Review | $10 bonus | iOS & Android |
| Polymarket Review | Up to $100 Refund | iOS & Android |
| Crypto.com Review | $50 bonus | iOS & Android |
| Robinhood Review | Up to $200 in reward stock | iOS & Android |
| Underdog Predict | 200% Up to $100 | iOS & Android |
| PrizePicks Review | Play $5, Get $50 | iOS & Android |
| FanDuel Predicts | Deposit $10 Get $10 | iOS & Android |
| Fanatics Markets | Up to $1000 in Trade Credit | iOS & Android |
| OG.com | Up to 100$ Bonus | iOS & Android |
| Coinbase | N/A | iOS & Android |
| DraftKings Predict | N/A | iOS & Android |
| Novig | ⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval | iOS & Android |
| Railbird | N/A | Website only |
| PredictIt | N/A | Website only |
| Sporttrade | ⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval | iOS & Android |
| ProphetX | ⏳ Awaiting CFTC Approval | Website only |
Kalshi: A beginner friendly site
Kalshi: Pros and Cons
- Find markets via search facility
- Extensive range of prediction markets
- Clear fees system
- Large help center
- Limited promos for existing customers
Kalshi is an exchange site whereby you can make predictions on specific yes or no questions, as we described above. Kalshi is a popular exchange site because it has quite a wide range of areas you can make predictions on including politics, sporting events, economics, climate, culture, and of course, crypto. It’s a relatively accessible site too as it’s quite user friendly, making it suitable for those experienced with making predictions with
Kalshi event contracts
and those new to the process.
Kalshi is also available in all US states, which makes it quite different from traditional online prediction platforms. There are also some really fun social features, including a live chat that rolls down the side of the screen. Within this, you can interact with users and discuss your latest predictions.
Polymarket: Newly legalised in the US
Polymarket: Pros and Cons
- Plenty of prediction market topics
- Trending and breaking areas of interest
- Lots of predictions in all major subject areas
- User-friendly site design
Up until late last year, Polymarket was restricted in the US but thanks to a legal change at the federal level. There is slightly less choice at Polymarket, that’s primarily because the relaunch in the US has happened so recently. We still found options for making predictions on politics, science, tech, sports, culture, global affairs and crypto.
Polymarket is also a cryptocurrency-only prediction market which is likely to suit those who are also looking to trade crypto contracts. Sports prediction markets are the most popular trade to make at Polymarket, which is no surprise given there are over 13 sports to choose from. The pricing view is a popular feature at Polymarket as it allows users to view trades using traditional probabilities formats. This makes it easier for those who are more used to traditional prediction markets and similar to understand the information.
Crypto.com: Pros and Cons
- Sports, elections, culture, and economics markets
- Low commission for trading
- Supports USD and cryptocurrency payments
- No crypto prediction markets
Crypto.com is very similar to both Kalshi and Polymarket in that you can make predictions on a wide variety of markets. One great feature of this platform is that it offers a very user friendly mobile app, making it easy for users to make their trades on the go. The app is available on all mobile devices and gets consistently high ratings.
It has a wider variety of deposit options compared to other prediction market sites, and it still supports the most popular cryptocurrencies too. It’s available to access in all US states, except New York. Crypto.com is marketed towards both beginners and active users, although its rewards and fees do tend to favor those that are making more regular trades.
How to make predictions on crypto
If you’re new to the world of prediction markets, including
trading markets on weather events, then it may all seem a little bit confusing right now. We’ve put together this handy step-by-step guide to help you place predictions on cryptocurrencies.
-
Choose a prediction market.
The first step is to decide which prediction market you’d like to trade with from our list of recommendations and sign up to it. Some sites will allow transactions with traditional currencies, but the majority of these will be cryptocurrency only so this is what we’ll focus on here. Click on the page banners of your chosen site, complete the registration form to create your account.
Make sure you consider whether your chosen prediction market offers the features that you need. So if you’re going to be making your trades on the go, then perhaps a mobile app will be useful. We always find it’s good to double check whether your preferred cryptocurrency is available too.
-
Complete the verification process.
Most prediction market sites will require you to verify your account before allowing you to place trades, and definitely before allowing you to make any withdrawals. This usually follows the KYC verification process which involves uploading a copy of your ID and proof of address. Most sites will accept a password or drivers license and a utility bill or phone bill, as long as they’re recent.
-
Deposit your funds.
Use your crypto wallet to deposit cryptocurrencies into your prediction market account, ready for trading your contracts. You’ll need to ensure that you’ve already purchased your crypto within a digital wallet, which can then be transferred into your prediction market account. Click on your account balance and tap to add funds, following the instructions as they come.
When you get to the bit where you need to choose your payment method, tap cryptocurrency. The prediction market will then generate a unique wallet address for your account. Open your crypto wallet and enter the prediction site’s unique address in, then confirm the amount that you’d like to deposit. Enter your login details to confirm your transaction and once it’s been submitted, your funds should arrive within a few minutes.
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Browse the available crypto markets.
Click on the crypto section of your chosen prediction market which you can usually find in the left hand menu. You’ll then see a variety of questions that users have put forward. They may say something like ‘will bitcoin be above $X on March 1st?’. Each market will then display the potential price for Yes or No answers.
You can then choose which answer you’d like to predict as correct, based on the market price. The price will reflect the expected chance that the answer will be true. So for example, if it says the price for Yes is $0.50, then there’s a 50% chance of the outcome occurring.
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Choose Yes or No.
When it comes to predicting crypto, there are only ever two choices: Yes or No. You can choose to predict Yes if you believe the event will happen or No if you think it won’t. Make sure to then choose the number of contracts that you want to purchase. The total cost for your trade will be $1 minus the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts that you choose. Simple as that!
-
Confirm your prediction.
Take a moment to give your prediction a once over before you click to submit. Be sure to check the total cost, the maximum potential payout if you’re correct and also when your prediction will be settled. You can then go ahead and confirm your trade, now all that’s left to do is wait to see how it settles. If your prediction is correct, then you should receive your payout within a few days.
Final thoughts on predicting crypto
Well, there you have it, everything you need to know about making predictions on cryptocurrencies. Using prediction markets can be a super straightforward way to make trades, with a simple Yes or No answer to choose from. The price of the trade typically reflects the probability of that answer being true, although it is influenced by users. Many prediction market sites have mobile apps, which means that you can place your trades on the go, no matter where you are.
If you’re thinking about jumping into predicting cryptocurrencies, then you can sign up to one of the prediction market sites we’ve mentioned in this review. We recommend starting small if you’re new to make these predictions, until you’ve gotten the hang of the process.
Claim The Best Crypto Prediction Bonuses of May
1.
100% up to $20
Wagering (WR): Use our Code THETRUTH to skip the waitlist, Min. Deposit: $20
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.
2.
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Crypto prediction FAQs
🤔 Is crypto prediction the same thing as trading cryptocurrency?
Not exactly. When you’re using a prediction market, you’re not actually buying or selling crypto. Instead, you’ll be purchasing contracts based on whether a specific Yes or No outcome will happen, such as Bitcoin reaching a certain price by a certain day.
📊 How do crypto prediction markets work?
The prices of the contracts are set by demand and tell you the probability that an event will occur. Just keep in mind that this probability is set by other users, rather than any mathematical probability calculation, so it’s not full proof. Contract prices will move up and down as traders buy and sell them.
💰 What happens if I make a prediction on crypto and get it right?
Well, if you make a prediction on a specific crypto scenario and it turns out to be correct, then the contract will pay out $1 per contract. The profit that you receive will be the difference between what you paid and the $1 settlement price. So if you paid $0.50 per contract and you’re correct, then you’ll receive $0.50 multiplied by the number of contracts that you purchased.
💳 Can I only do crypto predictions with crypto?
Although some prediction markets offer traditional payment methods like debit cards, the majority of them favor cryptocurrencies. It makes sense to make predictions or trades on crypto using crypto, which is why most sites prefer this method. To make predictions, you’ll need to deposit funds with your crypto wallet first.
📱 Can I make crypto predictions on my mobile?
Yes! Some prediction markets like Polymarket and Crypto.com have downloadable mobile apps so that you can make your trades wherever you are. Even sites that don’t have apps are usually mobile compatible which means that you can still make your predictions on any device.
