NLCS Game 4 Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: Odds, Tips and Predictions 10-17-24

The Los Angeles Dodgers opened up the National League Championship Series with a 9-0 shutout over the New York Mets to win Game 1.

The Mets struck back with an emphatic 7-3 win to tie things up and take home-field advantage in Game 2, shifting the series back to New York.

Unfortunately for fans at Citi Field, Game 3 was much like Game 1; Los Angeles once more defeated the Mets 8-0 and took back control of the series. They scored two runs in the second inning before adding some insurance with two-run homers from Kike Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani to put this one out of reach.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets

• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5
• Moneyline Dodgers -142
• Moneyline Mets +120
• Over/Under 7.5

On Thursday, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to take control of the National League Championship Series by sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a critical road start against the New York Mets.

Since his return from the IL, Yamamoto is averaging only four innings per start, leaving a Dodgers bullpen that, from July 1 through the end of the regular season, had a 4.03 ERA exposed.

Jose Quintana may not have achieved Yamamoto’s overall season statistics yet, but he’s currently pitching at his best at just the right moment.

Quintana has made eight starts between the regular season and playoffs that have only yielded five total runs — three earned — over 47 1/3 innings at 0.57 ERA without permitting any home runs in this span.

On Thursday, Quintana will face his most significant test: facing off against a Dodgers squad that leads all playoff-eligible teams with 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.5 on the road.

Though their offense hasn’t reached the same levels, the Mets finished eighth among major-league teams during regular season play with an average of 4.8 runs per game at Citi Field, which favors pitchers more than hitters.

Quintana posted an impressive 3.52 ERA over his regular and playoff performances for New York and should help propel them to victory in Game 4.

Dodgers vs Mets Moneyline

Moneyline value exists when betting on either team; take the Mets as the better value pick as I think they have a starting pitching advantage. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet Mets ML

• Mets pitching edge
• Mets at home
• Expect a higher scoring game

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Dodgers vs Mets Over/Under Analysis

This over/under of 7.5 is not a lot of runs. I will bet the over; I think both starting pitchers could struggle, so expect some early runs.

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet the Over 7.5

• Starters will struggle on the mound
• High Scoring game
• Mets will win

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Prediction

The Mets have the better starting pitching in this game and are at home in a must-win game. No team is better than the Mets with their backs against the wall.  Mets 6  Dodgers 5

Mets +124