Behind DJ Burns and some red-hot shooters, NC State has a live dog in this game. They have been underdogs in most of those games during their nine-game winning streak. Purdue is the Goliath in this game, and they have Zach Edey in the paint, but Purdue is more than just Edey. Lance Jones and Braden Smith have stepped up in crucial situations this season.
NC State can cover this spread, and a moneyline bet on NC State pays off hugely. Check out our
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- Point Spread: Purdue -9.5
- Moneyline NC State +350
- Moneyline Wisconsin -465
- Over/Under 146.5
These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 04/05/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: NC State to Cover
The Purdue Boilermakers have been dominant all season, but in order to beat Tennessee 73-67 in the Elite Eight they needed an outstanding effort from Player of the Year candidate Zach Edey – 40 points and 13-for-21 shooting – as everyone else only shot 34.4% from the floor during that game.
The NC State Wolfpack were considered an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament until winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament and earning themselves an automatic bid. Though initially inconsistent in performance, their recent run has proven they are no fluke. They currently boast nine straight victories, including wins against North Carolina, Marquette, and Duke (twice!).
The Wolfpack offense rarely turns over the ball and should have plenty of time to set up against a Purdue team that ranks 342nd in opponent turnover rate (13.4%). They boast four players averaging more than 11 points per game led by D.J. Horne (16.8 points on 44/41/81 shooting splits and D.J. Burns’ (275-pound big man with 62.2 field goal percentage over the past month).
Burns and Mohamed Diarra have combined for five double-doubles over their last seven games. They will likely not be able to stop Edey, but they should at least slow him down while forcing him into defensive work on both ends of the floor. Check out our
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This bet hinges on whether NC State’s 3-point defense lives up to expectations. At the conclusion of regular season play, they were outside the Top 250 in opponent 3-point percentage (35.1), yet since starting ACC Tournament play, they’ve seen opponents shoot only 28.4% from deep against them – something many other teams failed to do against NC State during the regular season.
NC State will at least cover in this game, and if they can put Edey on the line, he has shown free throw shooting issues.
Tip: Bet NC State to Cover
- NC State can hang with Edey
-
NC State shooting the ball well
-
NC State has been hot
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NC State vs Purdue Moneyline
NC State on the money line pays off big, and I see a clear path where the Wolfpack can win this game. They don’t turn the ball over and force Purdue to make free throws. The Wolfpack have two big men capable of keeping Zach Edey busy, and if they do those things, they can win this game. As for Purdue a bet of a straight up win has no value, you have to give the -9.5 if you are betting on Purdue.
March Madness betting trends
are always good to know.
Tip: Bet NC State to Cover
-
No Value in Betting Purdue Moneyline
-
NC State money line great value
-
Game will be closer than expected
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NC State vs Purdue Over/Under Analysis
146.5 is a tough number in this game. This looks like a 72-68 type of game, but with the Wolfpack’s renewed hot shooting, this becomes a risky proposition either way. I would actually leave this over/under alone, but if I were going to bet it, I would go under. More and more people are taking the time to learn about
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- Both teams can score quickly
-
UCONN more complete team
- Bama can shoot from three-point range
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NC State vs Purdue Spread Analysis
I think this spread is too big. It’s similar to NC State +7.5 against Duke. That’s why I am betting on NC State to cover. I thought the point spread should have been Purdue -5.5, so there is value in betting on NC State to cover this spread.
Tip: Bet NC State to Cover
- Purdue is clearly the better team
-
NC State matches up well
-
Game will be played in the high 70s
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NC State vs Purdue Player Props
DJ Burns OVER 13.5 Points
DJ Burns Jr. has averaged 18.4 points per game during tournament play at 67% from the field and serves as the Wolfpack’s offensive leader. Foul trouble may thwart him from covering this line; however, given that he will likely face off with star Zach Edey, his physical game and pick-and-pop abilities may also put Edey in tough spots throughout the night.
We would like to see him get plenty of touches to make the Boilermakers’ big man more effective on defense, which bodes well for him on this line.
Tip: Bet DJ Burns over 13.5 points
- Burns has been hot
-
Burns will dominate
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NC State vs Purdue Head to Head
This will be the first time the teams have played. Did you know you can even bet on who will be the
March Madness MVP?
Injuries and Suspensions
NC State Injury Report
- LJ Thomas OUT
- Dennis Parker OUT
Purdue Injury Report
Conclusion
This is going to be a close hard, fought, competitive game, and I like NC State to at least cover. The Wolfpack will need to control the tempo and hit the boards hard, but they have the people to get the job done on the boards. Purdue will need more than Zach Edey to win this game, and at times, even this season, that has not happened. I like NC State to cover, and with the odds, I may take a shot at betting them to pull off the upset. Be sure to check out our
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