NCAA Basketball Penn State vs Indiana: Odds, Tips and Predictions 03/11/23

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Prediction: Bet Indiana to cover

• Over/Under: Penn State vs Indiana (140)
• Spread: Indiana -3
• Pick: Bet Indiana to cover

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The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions are just one win away from playing in the Big Ten Championship game. Penn State dominated Indiana at home 85-66 earlier in the year. Indiana got hot right after that loss and has been the best team in the Big Ten over the second half of the season.

For the campaign, Indiana’s win-loss record is 22-10 The Hoosiers average 17.4 fouls per match and shoot 71.4% from free throws. They assist teammates 15.2 times per game (46th in the country), and they turn over the ball 11.9 times per match. They have scored 2,333 points in Indiana this season (75.3 per match) and average 35.9 rebounds per contest. The Hoosiers are 11th in Division 1 for execution on offense with a 48.9% shooting percentage.

With 68.5 points allowed, the Hoosiers are 130th in Division 1. They force 11.4 turnovers per match and allow teams to shoot 42% from the field (43rd for college basketball). Indiana’s defense concedes 33.0% of shots beyond the arc (230 out 696), while opponents make 69.5% from the charity stripe. They surrendered 11.6 dimes and 33.5 rebounds per game, ranking 101st and 13th respectively in the country

Penn State will enter the game with a record of 20-12. They are turning it over 8.8 times per game and committing 15.4 fouls in each contest. Penn State is currently averaging 32.2 boards per contest. This ranks them 103rd among college hoops for rebounding the basketball. The Nittany Lions have a 38.9% success rate on three-point shots (342 of 879) as well as 72.8% at the charity stripe. The average game score is 72.6 points per game, ranking them 163rd nationally. They also shoot 46.8% from the floor.

The defense has seen the Nittany Lions force 8.9 turnovers per game while drawing 13.1 fouls. With 446 assists surrendered, they are currently ranked 272nd among college basketball. They allow an FG percentage of 43.4% (806 out of 1,857), yielding 34.8 boards per game as a team. They allow 34.4% in 3-point shots and rank 128th in college hoops for PPG allowed (68.4).

The Nittany Lions took down the Hoosiers 85-66 in Happy Valley in January. The Hoosiers have been a different team since that game.

Trayce Jackson Davis will be the difference in this game. Penn State has a great backcourt, but to win this game, they will have to get hot from three-point range. This game is a risky bet with the Hoosiers favored by just three points. With that being said, I see the Hoosiers creating a little separation at the end of the game to cover this spread. Jalen Hood Schifino will need to come up big against a strong and veteran backcourt for the Nittany Lions, and I think he will.

Tip:

Indiana to cover

Best Odd

-3

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