Michigan State looks to be in the NCAA Tournament now after an inconsistent season. They still need to keep stacking wins, but they are in good shape now. Iowa would need to win out and have a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, and that’s not likely to happen.
Michigan State is an excellent defensive team, and they aren’t too shaggy on offense either. Iowa is a top offensive team, but the defense is non-existent at Iowa. Michigan State’s transition defense will be the difference in this game.
Odds Iowa vs Michigan State
- Point Spread: Michigan State -9.5
- Moneyline Iowa +365
- Moneyline Michigan State -490
- Over/Under 153.5
These odds were updated at 5 am EST on 2/20/24; the odds came from Draft Kings.
This spread looks about right, as the Spartans are the better team, but Iowa did beat Wisconsin after battling back from a double-digit deficit in the first half on Saturday. Iowa’s defense makes them a long shot in this game and it will be hard for them to slow the Spartans down.
Our Best Pick: Bet Michigan State to Cover
Wisconsin has been in a lull but still scored in the eighties on the road against Iowa. At home in the Kohl center they will score points. Maryland is a bad shooting team, but they have shot and played better as of late, and both teams will be desperate for this win.
I have a hard time thinking that the Badgers won’t score in the 70s in this game. I look for a game with a final score of 78-70. I do think the Badgers get the win but I am much more confident in the over bet in this game.
Tip: Michigan State to Cover
- Spartans transition defense
- Spartans at home
- Iowa poor defensively
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Iowa vs Michigan State Moneyline
No value exists on betting the moneyline for Michigan State at -490; no reason exists on a moneyline bet for the Spartans. The value is not there.
You get colossal value betting on Iowa at +365, it’s a long shot, but that is why the spread and money-line bets are so big. The Hawkeyes have a shot in this game, as the Spartans have been inconsistent this season.
Tip: Michigan State to cover
- Spartans at Home
- Decent pointspread value
- Michigan State clearly the better team
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Iowa vs Michigan State Over/Under Analysis
This line, I will bet the over, Iowa can score points at a fast rate; they also give up points at an alarmingly high rate. Michigan State will play fast and efficiently. The Spartan’s transition defence can give the Hawkeyes big-time issues.
- Michigan State efficient on Offense
-
Iowa good offensive team
- Iowa defense is poor
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Iowa vs Michigan State Spread Analysis
This line is about right, and I look for the Spartans to cover this spread. The Spartan’s transition defence will be the difference in this game. The Spartans will have no issue playing fast, the way the Hawkeyes like to play. This game should be a mismatch.
Tip: Michigan State to Cover
- Spartans to roll at home
- Iowa is a bad defensive team
-
Spartans good at home
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Iowa vs Michigan State Player Props
I love Payton Sandfort, over 14.5 points; I think he will be the main Hawkeye in this game, and if the game gets out of hand, I look for Sandfort to hit at least three three-point shots in this game. He has played well as of late, and he’s great in the clutch.
Tyson Walker’s 18.5 points, to me, is too high. I think Walker is an excellent player, but I think he comes up just short in this game.
A.J. Hoggard over 12.5 points is a solid bet in my eyes.
Tip: Bet Payton Sandfort over 14.5 points
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Iowa vs Michigan State Head-to-Head
MSU leads all-time against Iowa by an 86-59 score. Last season, these two teams split their two meetings with each team winning at home; Iowa trailed by 13 points with just over three minutes left but came back to win in overtime.
Injuries and Suspensions
Both teams have a couple of questionable players coming into this game, and as of 7 AM on game day, they look to be game-time decisions.
Iowa Hawkeyes Injury Report
Michigan State Spartans Injury Report
Conclusion
Michigan State is clearly the better team, the Iowa Hawkeyes are not good enough defensively to stay in this game. The Spartans transition defense will be the difference in this game. Take Michigan State -9.5.
