Most important reasons to compare UFC betting odds – maximize your value
If you want the best value, you must search for it, right? You wouldn’t just renew your house, auto or life insurance every year without checking what else is available. The same applies to finding the best UFC odds and even when looking for the best
basketball odds for today
too.
If you simply renewed your house or auto insurance, as described above, chances are that you would be losing value, if there were an alternative provider offering the same services at a lower price. Same applies to if you were betting on Colby Covington to win his match at odds +110 odds, yet discovered after placing the bet Colby was +130 UFC betting odds elsewhere.
It does not take a mathematician to work out that if you’d continue making this error, by allowing yourself to take odds without comparing, you will lose a lot of value in the UFC betting odds you are given, over the long run.
This article will help steer you in the right direction.
How do bookmakers determine their odds on UFC – we tell all
Although a UFC match only has two competitors, there are a multitude of factors that bookmakers need to take into consideration before offering UFC betting odds. You see, odds on UFC work a little different to some other sports.
Bookmakers often rely on data and form books to help them decide on betting odds for some other sports. However, when calculating UFC betting odds there needs to be room for discretion regarding an important element where form books or data cannot be relied on as much as they are on other sports.
Styles make fights
If formbooks were anything to go by, UFC fight betting odds would be easy for bookmakers to decide. One fighter [fighter A] may be due to fight a person who had been beaten by a fighter they had previously beaten easily.
On the formbook fighter A would appear to have a commanding advantage. This is not always the case when it comes to UFC betting odds, as different styles of fighters create very different outcomes, regardless of past form, or whether they are mainly strikers or grapplers.
Why do odds vary between bookmakers?
When looking on either UFC or
boxing odds comparison
websites, there are various reasons why odds may differ. For clarity, we will drop a few highlighting factors below:
Overround / vigorish
Overround or vigorish, abbreviated to ‘Vig’, is a word for the margin bookmakers create to ensure they profit from their betting books. For example, it is very common to see –110 odds, or [if a generous bookmaker] -105 odds, on a betting event that has two outcomes only. An example of this would be an event that has only two possible outcomes, such as a final of a soccer match. If you betted $100 on each, there is no way you would profit, however, the bookmaker would be sure to profit from the vigorish applied on the -110 odds of each selection offered.
Some bookmakers have generous overround, some have terrible overround, for example, if a bookmaker offered +115 of both outcomes mentioned above.
Weight of money
When one selection is betted on a lot, the odds will reduce. This will usually increase the odds of the other selections. This activity can create a difference between each bookmaker.
Opinion
Some bookmakers have their own traders who decide based on their opinions. These bookmakers often give their traders a certain amount of discretion when making these odds.
While checking an
odds comparison
for UFC, you might notice on the odd occasion that you see betting odds displayed in different odds formats. One thing to note is the odds are all the same, however different they may seem.
In the USA you will more likely see the USA odds, such as +100, or +500 for an underdog. The other two UFC betting odds formats you may see are fractions and decimals. Fractions are most commonly found on UK-based betting sites, whereas decimals are most abundant in European-based betting operators.
We’ll give a few examples below, to help understand this.
As mentioned above the decimal format is found in most European countries. However, even in the USA and UK you will see the decimal representation of betting odds on display on betting exchanges and Tote boards.Tote boards are commonly used in USA horse racing betting. If you ever use a betting exchange, then it would be wise to become familiar with the USA vs decimals conversions beforehand. This is quite easy to achieve, once you know what to look for.
Decimals odds include the stake. Most US bettors will be familiar with the stake not visually being returned on their bets. For example:
$100 at odds +200 will display as $200 profit
The main thing to be aware of with decimal format is becoming familiar with the different appearance the odds have, which some US bettors may find a little strange at first.
For example:
$100 at odds 3.0 is the same as +200 and is still $200 profit
Some USA bettors who have switched to using Betfair exchange, or to using Tote boards for horse racing betting, have reported finding this a little strange at first, but easily adaptable.
Most betting exchanges do display a highlighted ‘box’ display of the odds that their native country uses. For example, USA betting odds for USA and fractions for UK.
Fractional odds explained
Fractional odds, sometimes referred to as ‘traditional odds’ are UK and Irish-based. If you’re used to USA odds, fractional odds on UFC are easier to figure than decimal UFC betting odds as they have a closer association with the USA betting odds.
As mentioned above, the USA UFC betting odds do not display the stake returned, unlike with the decimal format which do. The fractional odds are the same as the USA UFC betting odds, in terms of not displaying the stake returned.
For example:
$100 at odds 2/1 will display as $200 profit
USA bettors will most likely find these odds easier to adapt to, at first, than the decimal display of odds on UFC.
For example:
$100 at odds +200 will display as $200 profit.
This simplifies the association, +200 in USA betting odds is the exact same as 2/1 fractional. The probability of these odds is 33.33%. This is due to the odds being 2-to-1 in the bookmakers’ favor that the selection does not win.
This is why you will find odds close to 2/1, or +200 on an event with three outcomes that are very closely matched. A home, draw, away event such as soccer would be the most common market you would find this.
American odds are the most commonly found odds on UFC betting odds. There is now a plethora of online bookmakers in the USA you can choose from to find the best UFC odds.
We discussed above how American UFC betting odds are more closely associated with fractional odds than they are in the decimal format. However, despite being closely associated, American odds are more versatile and can arguably offer more value than fractional odds. The reason for this is there are many more UFC betting odds available when using American odds, versus using fractional odds.
You may notice, when visiting a USA sportsbook and looking for your UFC odds today that there are usually a wider range of odds increments available. One selection for odds on UFC may be available at –310, -300, -305, all the way down to –286, for example. When using a fractional site, for instance in the UK, the odds increments seem to have a farther gap in general.
How to calculate the expected value from UFC betting odds – a must read
Expected value is commonly abbreviated in the betting world as ‘EV’. The EV amount is how much you can expect to win or lose from a bet if you placed the bet on the same odds every time.
Expected value example
Rather than focus on UFC betting odds, we will use a coin toss as an example. This example could be applied to two fighters who are of equal odds and are priced close to +100.
Of course, a coin toss has two possible outcomes, which makes this calculation very simple and clear for us to base this on for any future UFC betting odds calculations. The probability of the coin toss would be 50/50, as per the odds displayed below:
1/1 in fractions, +100 USA odds, or 2.0 in decimals.
To apply this to UFC betting odds, we will display this below. Let’s say that we have taken odds of 2.5 for a fighter A to beat fighter B. We find out closer to the fight day that superior fighter B is now slightly injured, and this has made fighter A shorten in UFC betting odds to 2.0
We have a 50% chance of our fighter losing (0.5), yet stand to win $150 from a $100 bet. We also have a 50% chance of our bet losing, yet will lose only $50. As per the calculation below.
Win = (0.5*150) = $75
Plus
Loss = (0.5*100) = -$50
The above calculation produces a +$25 EV, per $100, or +25% EV outcome. While it would be rare to find these instances, they do occur.
Why loyalty doesn’t always pay with the best UFC odds – bet smart!
If you want to know how to bet smart and the only time it pays to be loyal to your bookmaker, then this part of the article is for you.
Bookmakers will often offer a good choice of promotions, reload offers and loyalty rewards to attract and retain customers. The art of knowing how to profit consistently is first figuring out which offers you are going to proceed with, and which ones are not worth wasting your time on.
Loyalty offers with rewards
There are so many loyalty offers out there, that sometimes it is hard to decipher which ones are valuable enough and worthwhile to proceed with. While it would be tedious to perform an ‘EV calculation’’ similar to that shown above, we would suggest filtering out which loyalty offers provide the best rewards and stick to a chosen few only.
Comparing the best UFC odds
As mentioned earlier when quoting our insurance package analogy, it would be wise to shop about first for the best UFC odds before placing your bets. Filter through our trusted bookmakers of choice on this website which will help you find the odds on UFC. You can also find the best cricket betting odds on offer too.
Getting the value
If you combine the two practices above, this should ensure you obtain the best odds on UFC bets and that should take care of any worry about getting the value from your bets. True, it would be very hard to find only +EV bets, especially if you enjoy betting on UFC regularly. It would be wise to follow these practices as much as possible.
Other factors to consider when comparing odds on UFC – more bang for your buck
Odds are one of the most important elements of putting yourself at an advantage with sports betting, and that includes odds on UFC too!
There are extra additions, outside of odds, that can be used to enhance the chances of winning. These additions revolve mainly around UFC betting promotions. Sometimes, it is a lot more profitable to even take ‘worse’ odds, with a bookmaker that is offering a big promotion, or bonus, when betting on UFC betting odds.
For example, it would be more profitable betting on UFC betting odds that had a negative EV of 20%, yet offered a 100% bonus attached to that bet. The promotion would overpower the +EV found elsewhere, by far.
One more thing worth noting is you will probably find more value and competition within prices surrounding the main events, in general. Conversely, matches such as those in the
prelims will generally have less competitive prices
from the bookmakers on offer.
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Odds comparison vs live betting odds on UFC – caution!
When it comes to finding +EV odds on UFC bets, live betting is responsible for providing a large portion of these. However, there is a caveat to this statement and one that comes with caution.
Odds are not static
Due to the event being live, the odds are changing as the activity happens, almost in real time, as quick as the UFC betting odds traders [or the algorithm the odds are attached to] can update and refresh these. So, in other words, when you find a +EV opportunity it will inevitably not last for too long, so you need very fast fingers! You will also find these fluctuations on
tennis betting odds, where the complexion of a game changes fast.
How to control fluctuating odds during in play
Firstly, the odds are never going to be static, odds are never static even in pre-event betting. However, you can choose moments during the live UFC betting odds events when things stabilise temporarily for a moment. The best time for this would of course be in between rounds, when the fighters are on their stools.
It will not eradicate this entirely, but will reduce the movements greatly and therefore increase your chances of actually placing the UFC betting odds you see, without them moving.
Conclusion on UFC betting odds
Betting on UFC has improved greatly over the past few years. The markets available for UFC betting odds have increased due to the amount of new online betting sites in the USA now.
Follow the practices mentioned in this article. Look for valuable bets, try combining them with betting promotions and even take a worse price if the betting promotion makes it worth it!
Lastly, be cautious when live betting, while the value is there, odds do change super-fast, so speed will be your best friend if you are to be successful getting the best UFC odds.
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UFC betting odds FAQ
🥊 How do I find the best UFC odds?
Finding the best UFC odds will require a bit of practice. Take a look through our recommended bookmakers we have selected for the best UFC odds. We have also written an article of the best ways to ensure you get the value from your UFC bets.
❓ What is the best way to win from UFC betting?
There is a full list of recommended practices you take into consideration that will all add to your compounded UFC profits total. There isn’t just one secret answer nor element to note that will ensure you profit. There are a bunch of tips you can use in combination with each other that will help your overall profits rise. Our article at TheGruelingTruth.com goes into the specifics.
🤷♂️ What do odds of +200 mean?
American odds formats work differently to traditional odds [fractional] and decimal odds. Our article gives a full descriptive insight into how these different formats work. We also point out how American odds are closer related to fractional, in terms of understanding, but have behaviors more similar to decimals. Learning decimals will also be useful for USA betting when using a betting exchange, such as Betfair, and also for Tote board odds with horse racing, for example.
