The most important reasons to compare politics odds
The question that we’re most often asked here at TheGruelingTruth.com is if comparing odds is really that important. Our answer is always yes – it doesn’t matter if you’re looking at politics, sports betting odds, or online casino gaming odds, shopping around for the best value is always essential.
Why is shopping around for the best odds so important? Let’s compare it to an example from everyday life. If you’re planning a vacation, do you book your flights with the same airline every time, or your accommodation through the same travel agent? When renewing your issuance do you stick with the same provider every time without at least checking a comparison site?
In most of the aforementioned cases, it’s probably safe to assume that most of you would shop around for the best possible value. Well, betting odds are exactly the same. By not shopping around for the best politics odds, you could seriously be missing out on a lot of potential value in your bets.
How do bookmakers determine their political betting odds?
The key to understanding how exactly you can find the best odds is looking at things from the other side so you know exactly how the bookmakers set their odds. From F1 betting odds to politics and beyond, the formula used by the bookmakers remains largely the same. While knowledge of politics or individual sports does play a part, it mostly comes down to number crunching.
Basically, the bookmakers will, first of all, determine the realistic possibility of each possible outcome. Then, they will generally alter the odds very slightly in their favor based on how they think the betting will go. This is done to ensure that the bookie protects its profits, and is known as the overround. Back in the day, this was mostly done manually by experts of each sport. Today in 2023, this is mostly done using cutting-edge technology, especially in the case of the big US bookmakers. This is how they are able to offer the latest political betting odds in real-time and odds for in-play betting on sports.
Why do the odds vary between bookmakers?
Surely if all of the bookies are using more or less the same formula and technology to determine their odds, then the odds will be more or less the same between each one, right?
You would think so, but no – this is a common misconception that stops people from shopping around for the best possible odds. The overround, that we mentioned earlier, is actually determined more by factors that the bookies are seeing happening behind the scenes.
For example, let’s say there was to be another Biden vs Trump election tomorrow. The bookies might calculate the winning probabilities for Biden as being 60% and for Trump as being 40%. Altogether that’s 100%. This would mean that the realistic odds should be as follows:
However, the bookie may use past takings and results to foresee a lot of betting on Biden as the favorite, and so may offer him at odds of -245 and Trump at, say, +163. In this case, Biden’s implied probability of winning is increased to 71% and Trump’s is decreased to 38%, giving a total percentage of 110%.
That extra 10% is the overround that protects the bookmaker’s profits. However, if a certain bookmaker saw a lot of money coming in on Trump and less on Biden, they would then be inclined to shorten Trump and lengthen Biden to try and balance the books. Not all bookies will see the same betting patterns in all cases, and as such the overround can differ significantly between operators on certain betting lines.
It doesn’t matter if you’re looking for the best politics odds, or shopping around for football betting odds, understanding how to read them is essential. There are three main odds formats that are commonly used across the world in 2023, so let’s run through them all and take a look at how each works in practice.
Decimal odds is the easiest format to understand and is commonly used throughout mainland Europe, Canada, and other parts of the world. With the decimal format, the odds value is always greater than one, meaning that it always represents your returns from a $1 stake.
Referring back to the latest political betting odds, let’s say you want to back a Trump win at odds of 2.5. If you bet $1 in this case, your total returns would be $2.50 (1×2.5). In order to calculate your total returns with decimal odds, you always simply need to multiply your stake by the odds. To determine your total profit, simple then subtract the stake. To use the example above, you would subtract 1 from 2.5, equating to a total profit of $1.5.
Fractional odds explained
Fractional odds are the original OGs of the odds format world and are still commonly used in the UK and Ireland. With fractional odds, each outcome is represented by the number on either side of the fraction. The number on the left tells you how much profit you stand to make, while the number on the right tells you how much you need to stake to make that much profit, the two numbers added together tell you your total returns.
For example, let’s say you back a candidate at 2/1 – you would stand to make a $2 profit from a $1 stake, which would equate to $3 returns in total.
Most of the best politics odds that you see on our site here at TheGruelingTruth.com will be displayed in American odds. Frequently also referred to as “moneyline” odds, this is the most commonly used odds format in the US – as the very name suggests. There are two types of odds to understand here – positive and negative.
American Odds – Positive number odds
When the American odds are positive, the number dictates how much profit you would stand to make with a $100 stake. For example, if you bet on Trump at odds of +150, your potential profit for a $100 stake would be $150, while your total potential returns would be $250.
American Odds – Negative number odds
Negative odds, as you may have figured out by now, work in the opposite way. With these odds, the number displayed tells you how much you would need to stake in order to yield a $100 profit from the bet. For example, let’s say you have Biden at -150, you would need to stake $150 in order to make $100 should the bet come up. The total returns, in this case, would also be $250.
Best politics odds – How to calculate the expected value
As we stated earlier in this article, the purpose of shopping around for the latest political betting odds is to find the best possible value for your bets. Fortunately, a formula does exist to help you calculate the approximate value of your bets – expected value. Of course, at this stage, we should point out that it is known as “expected value” as gambling does involve a huge element of luck.
So what is the expected value and how can you calculate it? Basically, the expected value is used to measure what you could expect to win or lose if you were to place a bet on the given odds repeatedly. Expected value shouldn’t be confused with implied probability – which is simply the odds displayed as a percentage.
To calculate the expected value, the formula is as follows:
- (Total potential returns x win probability) – (Total potential losses [stake] x loss probability)
To use a political betting odds example, let’s say you’re staking $10 on Biden to win an election at +150. Your total potential returns would be $25 and your total potential losses would be $10. Your win probability would be 0.6 and your loss probability would be 0.4.
Finding the best politics odds – why loyalty doesn’t always pay
A lot of people out there tend to find their ideal bookmaker and then stick with them, but loyalty doesn’t always pay – especially if you want to find the best politics odds every time you bet. As mentioned previously, betting with the same bookmaker every time is like always flying with the same airline, always eating in the same restaurant, and always doing your grocery shopping at the same supermarket. Sure, it might feel comfortable and settle you into a routine – you may even be justly rewarded for your loyalty. However, by not shopping around you are almost always inevitably losing out on potential value.
It’s often not merely the case of saving yourself a few cents here and there. As we covered above, the odds can actually differ greatly between bookmakers in many cases. Even just a small number change in odds could seriously alter the expected value of your bets. At the end of the day, if you want to enhance your overall betting experience as much as possible, comparing odds is essential.
How our political betting odds comparison can help you
Our betting odds comparison tool here at TheGruelingTruth.com pulls together all of the odds for your desired betting line from all of the available online bookmakers where you are. Simply search for the betting line that you want to wager on, and we’ll display a comparison of all the odds from every bookmaker. Essentially, you can think of us as the Skyscanner of betting odds. It’s not just the latest political betting odds that we cover either. You can also find the best UFC odds right here as well.
Other factors to consider when comparing the latest political betting odds
As we’ve explained consistently throughout this article, the primary purpose of using an odds comparison is to find the best possible value for your bets. While comparing your odds is an important part of finding the best value, it’s not everything. There are other factors to be considered that can also boost the value of your bets. For example, availing yourself of a bookie’s welcome bonus might make your bet more valuable with them, even if their odds are slightly worse. Similarly, if you have been loyal to a bookmaker for some time, you may have rewards from the VIP program that could help to enhance your odds.
We’re not solely referring to odds boosters and other promotions that are directly associated with odds enhancement. Even offers such as a match deposit bonus or a risk-free bet can add more potential value to your bets. The bottom line here is that while odds comparison is important, it should also be used in conjunction with other value-enhancing factors.
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Political betting odds comparison vs live betting
When it comes to comparing odds for live betting, things can naturally be a little trickier. This is due to the fact that everything is happening in real-time, so the odds move faster. Of course, things are a little different when it comes to keeping track of the latest political betting odds in real-time, especially as live betting isn’t as common in this sphere.
Live betting is far more popular in sport, particularly with tennis betting odds. When it comes to comparing live betting odds on sport, we always recommend timing things correctly. The best way to do this is to wait for breaks in play. Naturally, half time is best here as it’s the point during a conest when you’re going to have the most time. However, if you want to move more quickly, you can utilize things such as time outs and water breaks.
With politics, things tend to move a little more slowly than they do with sports, so you are going to have more time. For example, if you’re live betting during an election, changes with regards to the count and exit polls happen more slowly than influencing factors do in live sports. Still, if you’re completely new to betting we recommend starting out with ante-post lines first.
The best politics odds comparison – Summary
To sum things up, comparing political betting odds is important for a wide variety of reasons. However, at the end of the day, it mostly boils down to one essential factor – value. Shopping around for the best politics odds allows you to find the best possible value in your bets. And more valuable wagers provide you with an overall more enjoyable betting experience. As stated above, using the odds comparison is vitally important, but you should also use it in conjunction with other factors that can help to boost the value of your bets.
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Political betting odds FAQ
🤔 How do I bet on politics?
You may be wondering if it is possible to bet on politics – well, it is. In some ways, it functions much the same as betting on sports, but there are some key differences. You can discover everything you need to know here in our politics betting guide here at TheGruelingTruth.com, which includes the latest political betting odds.
📍 Where can I find the best politics odds?
The answer to that question could literally be changing by the second as you read this answer. Where to find the best odds is not a question that can be answered in general terms. Odds are constantly changing all the time, which is why you have to compare them in real-time between bookmakers. You can do this with the odds comparison tool on our site. Simply follow the link to get started!
💬 Can I find politics betting explained?
Yes, you can – right here at TheGruelingTruth.com. Our experts have created a detailed guide that gives you the best possible introduction to politics betting. Whether you’re completely new to betting in general, or your practiced sports gambler who’s looking to branch out – we’re confident that this guide will tell you everything that you need to know and more.
🗣 Do bookmakers offer odds on politics?
That’s a very good question, and it’s one that deserves a quality answer. That’s why we sent out our experts to investigate it. We wanted to find out, first of all, if sportsbooks can offer odds on politics. Secondly, we tried to find and compare the odds of those that do. You can read our findings by following the link to our site.
