Josh Schwartz
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Last Updated on 09/23/2022
Fact checked by: Mike Goodpaster
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Why should you compare baseball odds?
Bettors ranging from newcomers looking to place their first bet all the way to the experts, may wonder whether comparing odds is necessary at all; surely most sportsbooks offering the same markets will be offering similar odds, right? Wrong! Odds can fluctuate massively between bookies, just as insurance rates can vary, and who’d buy insurance without comparing rates first?
Comparing baseball odds is a great way to start getting every cent possible. For newcomers, comparing odds can be a great way to work out which bookie is right for you whilst for the more experienced gambler it can be a crucial part of your betting strategy to keep yourself ahead of the rest of the market.
Using the same bookie over and over again may be easier but it’s certainly not the best value, you may be getting shorted without even realizing, especially if a bookie starts off as a great value with good baseball odds then slowly moves back to the average rates.
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How do bookies make their odds?
Bookies baseball odds today are far more of a science than some people realize; very rarely do they actually reflect the exact probabilities of the event. Bookmakers will have their own teams deciding their baseball odds, this will also often be done through the form of algorithms rather than a person making decisions themselves.
Bookies odds are often set in a way that ensures they make as much profit as possible on all outcomes whilst also reducing variance.
Most bookies will see this as a balancing act, on one side of the scale they will want to maximize their profit whilst at the same time drawing bettors in.
Why do odds vary between bookmakers?
Baseball odds differ between bookmakers for a variety of reasons, often down to how each individual business is run behind the scenes. Every bookie will have their own costing structures, profit and income targets and even down to their debts. This can lead to different levels of commissions and fees to ensure they stay in the black.
Whilst the smaller bookmakers may just follow the lines set out by their bigger competitors, those bigger bookmakers will have their own odds makers studying all data available including weather, form, injuries and any other potential variables when setting odds.
Odds can also be changed depending on whether a market has generated too many wagers on one side, typically the favorites side. This can lead bookies to offer the underdog’s side at a very attractive rate to encourage players onto the other side of the market and balance their books.
Of course as with any business, simple competition also plays a major part in setting baseball odds. Sportsbooks will try to weave an ability to beat their competitors into their odds, even if that means lowering their profits slightly to generate more custom.
Most popular odds formats explained
While the baseball odds will differ between sportsbooks, the format of those odds may differ too. This can be a geographical thing as odds formats vary around the world. While it can also be different depending on what the bookmaker is trying to achieve, some odds formats allow more subtle differences while others are simply following a tradition in their region.
How to calculate expected value?
Expected value is the predicted value, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. However, if that is all a bit too much gibberish, then put simply the expected value is the average result you should expect from the given bet.
Expected value is calculated as (amount won per bet divided by probability of winning) minus (amount lost per bet divided by the probability of losing) which equals your expected value.
A positive figure would mean the bet does offer value to the bettor based on the fact that if the bet was made 100 times, it would turn a profit.
What is most important when considering expected value is that it should never be your only consideration before placing a bet. The equation mainly shows the long term profit or loss of a bet. Expected value should be primarily used to form a long term betting strategy rather than made to decide a one-off bet. As with most research made when gambling it should all be considered within any other context rather than on its own.
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Why loyalty doesn’t pay – always shop around
Brand loyalty isn’t something that is typically rewarded these days, and that carries over to the gambling market.
Operators may not hold their value forever and as some bookies change their odds calculations they fall behind other sportsbooks. So whilst sticking with a bookie may aid convenience by limiting the amount of accounts needed, it’s unlikely to give you value.
Only through constant odds comparisons will you be able to stay ahead of the market.
What else to consider besides odds
Despite the fact it may seem like they are, baseball odds are not the be all and end all of choosing your operator. Bookies will offer other features that may put them ahead of their competitors for your needs.
VIP Clubs, bonuses, the offer of specialized markets and easy of use should also be considered when choosing your sportsbook. For example it may be worth taking slightly worse baseball odds on a bet if an accompanying bonus leads to a higher value.
Odds comparison vs live betting
Comparing baseball odds for in-play live betting is naturally trickier as the odds tend to fluctuate so quickly. There are ways you can make it easier, waiting for breaks in play such as when tennis players sit down or at half time of an event as the odds will stabilize and give you time to compare.
Actually baseball is a sport that tends to lend itself to easily comparing in play betting due to the clear breaks in play between innings.
Keeping a couple of online bookies pages open in different tabs will allow you to easily switch and compare operators.
Conclusion – compare for success
Comparing baseball odds is by far the easiest way to get ahead of most bettors. Whilst you should research every bet, the comparison of baseball odds is the easiest way to do it. You can do a straightforward comparison between all sportsbooks which tends to be a lot less time consuming than other forms of research like a teams form or historical data.
However it’s worth remembering that it’s by no means the only consideration you should make before betting. Bonuses, specialized markets and other features should also form part of your decision making before placing any wager at all.
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