Dallas remains favoured despite two consecutive home losses to the Saints and Ravens, thanks to Dak Prescott’s performance against Baltimore; Dak finished his game without an interception for 379 passing yards and 2 touchdowns without interceptions. Meanwhile, the Giants finally scored their first victory of the season against the Browns, with Daniel Jones contributing 236 passing yards and two touchdowns while Malik Nabers came through big with eight catches for 78 yards and two scores from Malik Nabers’ performances; Daniel Jones passed well while Daniel Jones played well while Malik Nabers contributed eight catches for 78 yards and two scores himself!
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Point Spread: Giants -5.5
Moneyline Cowboys -250
Moneyline Giants +205
Over/Under 45.5
Daniel Jones makes up for his average passing abilities with an uncanny ability to initiate plays with his legs.
Under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, the Cowboys constantly blitz under quarterback Dak Prescott. That has resulted in one of the highest pressure rates per dropback entering Week 4, leaving Jones hearing footsteps in his pocket and having to quickly take off as Dallas ramps up pressure on him.
Jones may struggle under pressure as a passer, but PFF ranks him among the better running quarterbacks for these situations. He carried six times against Minnesota’s aggressive blitz-heavy schemes in Week 1, five times against Washington in Week 2 and then eight times against Cleveland last Sunday.
In addition to those carries caused by pass pressure, the New York Giants will call Jones’ number for designed runs as part of their playbook, which contains various RPO schemes that allow him to choose whether or not to rush.
The Giants should take advantage of Dallas’ poor run defense to attack it on the ground, given they rank last in many run-stop statistics to begin this season. Lamar Jackson ran 14 times for 87 yards rushing and one touchdown on Sunday alone!
Jones has recorded nine or more carries in three of his last five full games against Dallas and is projected for as many as 7.6 attempts this Thursday night – though my prediction is slightly lower at 6.6 with a higher ceiling considering their stop unit composition.
Cowboys vs Giants Moneyline
The only moneyline value is on the Giants; betting on the Cowboys, you are better off giving the points. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.5/5
Tip: Bet Giants +5.5
Jones to have big game
Giants at home
Cowboys defense will be an issue
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Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Over/Under Analysis
This over/under of 45.5 is not a lot of points, but both teams will struggle to score. I think the under is the safer bet in this game.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Under 45.5
Cowboys will struggle on the ground
Nabers to have a big game
Prescott must limit turnovers
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Prediction
I don’t have a great feeling about this game either way. 5.5 points is significant, so I will take the Giants and the points, but I am not overly confident about it.
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