The Patriots nearly reached an unbeaten start this season but fell to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime, in spite of competent play from Jacoby Brissett and Rhamondre Stevenson on offense. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers finally earned his first win thanks to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen excelling behind him.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Point Spread: Jets -6.5
Moneyline Patriots +215
Moneyline Patriots -260
Over/Under 38.5
I don’t believe the Jets have reached a level where they warrant an almost one-touchdown wager in this situation.
Through two weeks, both offenses have gone three-and-out on more than 40% of their possessions – placing both in the bottom eight in terms of NFL statistics. On defense, however, New England holds an edge as they allow only 5.1 yards per play (14th) while New York allows an unimpressive 5.4 average.
Two matchups within this match-up increase the odds that New England and New York will compete closely throughout.
On offense, we know what the Patriots want to do: lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in the running game. Stevenson leads all NFL running backs with 20 or more carries in terms of missed tackles forced. Furthermore, his 3.09 yards after contact per attempt ranks eighth among running backs with 20+ attempts. Unfortunately, New York currently ranks 30th regarding yards after contact per attempt allowed when defending runs.
Second, New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has quickly established himself as one of the league’s top cover corners. Gonzalez effectively contained DK Metcalf last Sunday by covering 82% of his routes en route to three catches for 24 yards. If they can contain Garrett Wilson on Thursday night – Aaron Rodgers has read Wilson 35% of all times this season- it would bode well for their chances of an upset victory.
Patriots vs Jets Moneyline
If you like the upset pick in this one the Patriots payoff at more than 2 to 1. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.5/5
Tip: Bet Patriots +6.5
Patriots are more physical
Jets at home
Both offenses struggling
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Patriots vs Jets Over/Under Analysis
This over/under is tricky; 38.5 is not a lot of points, but both teams will struggle to score. That fact would make me lean towards betting the under in this game.
DraftKings
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Tip: Bet the Under 38.5
Patriots will dominate on the ground
Expect a close game
Patriots will cover
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Prediction
The Patriots’ running game will keep the game close, but I expect Aaron Rodgers to make enough plays to win it. Jets 20Â Â Patriots 16
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