The Buffalo Bills found themselves trailing 17-3 against the Cardinals late in the first half but rallied to outscore them 31-11 over the rest of the game, outscoring them 31-11 overall. I anticipated they might start slowly, so I backed the Cardinals +6.5, knowing that Josh Allen needed time to integrate new pass catchers before his offense could find its groove.
However, in typical Allen fashion, he took matters into his own hands—or rather legs—by rushing nine times for 39 yards and two touchdowns. I expect the Bills’ offense to continue improving as Allen builds rapport with new targets.
Defense-wise, I anticipated the Dolphins would start slowly after losing Christian Wilkins and starting Bradley Chubb on the PUP list. Additionally, their transition from Vic Fangio’s defense in Baltimore to Anthony Weaver from Boston may require players to adjust.
Jalen Ramsey played through a hamstring injury in Week 1, though this wasn’t evident on paper. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. ran past him for what could have been a 40-yard touchdown play but instead got tackled for pass interference instead, giving the Jaguars first down at the 1-yard line rather than allowing it. Ramsey seems unlikely to return closer to 100% on such a short week.
With Miami’s defense still lacking full strength, I expect Allen and the Buffalo offense to move the ball effectively on Thursday night. Additionally, Allen has found success against Miami before: in all 13 of his career starts versus them, he has thrown for at least two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Moneyline Bills +120
Moneyline Dolphins -142
Over/Under 42.5
The Bills usually hold an edge in this divisional rivalry because their game plan relies heavily on Allen taking control and improvising on his own. A short week could work in their favor.
As for weather forecasts, rain or showers could intensify the run game and give Buffalo an advantage in rushing efficiency after Week 1. Miami may be without one or both of their top running backs, further tilting things toward them.
Bills vs Dolphins Moneyline
The spread is close enough to bet either team on the moneyline, but the value is more with the Bills in this game, if you like the Bills. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.6/5
Tip: Bet Bills +2.5
Expect a high-scoring game in the high 20s
Allen to have a big game
Dolphins at home
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Bills vs Dolphins Over/Under Analysis
This line is low. That said, I am taking over this game as I think both teams will get into the twenties.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet the Over 42.5
Second half should be explosive
Expect a close game
The Dolphins pull out a close one.
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Prediction
The Bills’ run game, especially if it’s raining, will be important. I also expect Josh Allen to have a huge game and pull off the small upset.
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