The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win tonight against a banged-up Chargers team.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: Chiefs -4
Moneyline Chargers +175
Moneyline Chiefs -205
Over/Under 42.5
I can hardly believe what I’m about to say, but I finally think there is value in the Chiefs, and we have hit the bottom of their market.
The Chiefs are currently 11-1 but just 4-7 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover in six consecutive games—five of which they won—without covering. Notably, they cannot be considered a heavy favorite either.
This spot is excellent for many different reasons.
First and foremost, this is an inconvenient situation for the Chargers, who were forced to travel across the country last week to play the Atlanta Falcons before returning home and travelling a short distance across time zones again to Kansas City.
Last week, the Chargers won and covered. But their performance wasn’t remarkable.
Ladd McConkey had an outstanding game for Justin Herbert with 117 receiving yards. Los Angeles allowed Kirk Cousins a free rein with the ball, which somehow worked in their favor.
Even with their win, this was not a performance to be proud of by any means.
Los Angeles faces an immense test against an impressive Kansas City Chiefs team coming off an extended rest. With a victory, they hope to make things interesting in the AFC West division down the stretch.
Who have the Chargers defeated this year, however?
Los Angeles only has one win against a team over 500—against the Denver Broncos—making it just above Kansas City in our NFL Luck Rankings; that is quite an accolade given how often Kansas City has been victorious this year by some officiating luck!
The Chargers were fortunate to get past the Falcons last weekend in terms of postgame win expectation; combined with one of the easiest schedules so far in NFL play, I am inclined to fade them as my pick.
Offensively, the Chiefs appear to be progressing nicely.
Isiah Pacheco’s return is an enormous boost, while DeAndre Hopkins has provided Patrick Mahomes with an invaluable ally. Since acquiring Hopkins, Mahomes has scored 13 touchdowns with only three interceptions over six games with a 69% completion percentage – much closer to what fans of Mahomes’ were used to seeing from him.
D.J. Humphries should start at left tackle, which will be monumentally impactful. That position on the Chiefs’ offensive line has been awful this season, contributing to Mahomes’ skyrocketing pressure-to-sack ratio.
Reports regarding Humphreys have been encouraging.
Finally, I don’t know how the Chargers plan to move the ball. Gus Edwards is an obvious downgrade from J.K. Dobbins and their passing game relies heavily on McConkey for success.
Chargers vs Chiefs Moneyline
Moneyline value exists on the Chargers, but injuries make it hard to see them winning this game; if you are going to bet on the Chiefs, give the -4.To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.6/5
Tip: Bet Chiefs -4
Both defenses are playing well
Mahomes to have good game will
Chiefs at home
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Chargers vs Chiefs Over/Under Analysis
The number is right at 42.5. These teams are great on offense, but the defences will shine in this matchup tonight. Now, the issue with this spread is the Chargers are decimated by injuries and points will be hard to come bu for them.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet Under 51.5
Low scoring game
Chiefs at home
Chargers are beaten up
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Prediction: This will be a tight game until the second half when the Chiefs put the banged-up Chargers away. Chiefs 24 Chargers 13
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