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The Bills are currently 6 point favorites to cover the spread, and 44.5 total points scored is projected for this matchup. As moneyline favorites they are at -290 while 49ers can offer themselves as potential underdogs at +235.
The 49ers enter Sunday Night Football on a two-game losing streak and face multiple injuries that would render this season irretrievable if they were not playing in a winnable NFC West division. Quarterback Brock Purdy remains questionable to play following last week’s absence. On the other side of this matchup are the Bills, coming off their bye week with hopes of picking up their seventh consecutive win in as many tries.
Given the weather conditions, Purdy’s health issues, and Deebo Samuel’s ineffectiveness without Brandon Aiyuk (IR-knee), I expect Kyle Shanahan to implement a run-heavy game plan featuring McCaffrey heavily and quick passing plays.
Last week, the 49ers allowed a season high 38 points without edge rusher Nick Bosa – who missed all week of practice due to hip and oblique injuries – contributing. Consequently, their defense allowed season-high total points with Bosa unavailable to help make up ground.
The 49ers defense performed better than their final score indicated, holding Green Bay Packers to an admirable 4.0 yards per carry (42-169) and 7.1 ypa (23-163) averages.
Coming off their bye week, it can be hard to assess where precisely the Bills stand in terms of their downfield passing game.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) remains out, while Keon Coleman (wrist) practised limited all week and remains questionable after missing nearly one month. Amari Cooper remains off of the injury report but has yet to take on a full-time role on offense.
Khalil Shakir has been the critical component in Buffalo’s passing game this season, amassing 56 receptions, 599 yards, two touchdowns on 66 targets for 56 receptions (56+/-599=622 yards + two scores on 65 targets) before his knee injury sidelined him last week against San Francisco 49ers defense minus slot corner Deommodore Lenoir (Knee).
Kicking could play an integral part here with 14 mph winds in the forecast.
Tyler Bass of Buffalo has posted an average field-goal percentage (84.6% and 16th), but has missed four extra points and currently ranks second-to-last for extra-point percentage (89.2%).
Jake Moody of San Francisco stands 23rd nationally for field goal percentage at 81.87%, having yet to miss a PAT attempt.
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I bet the under as the weather will be rough, and the 49ers will try to control the tempo in the elements.
Prediction: Bills -6
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