Sunday morning in Dublin brings early-window action. Minnesota and Pittsburgh arrive at Croke Park each carrying a 2-1 record, but their paths couldn’t be more different.
The Vikings ride a disruptive defense and get wideout Jordan Addison back from a three-game suspension, adding fresh speed opposite star Justin Jefferson. The Steelers have survived on turnovers despite being outgained by 417 yards, a red flag when facing defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy front. Betting markets swung four points toward Minnesota during the week, setting up sharp opportunities on individual player props.
Jordan Mason – Anytime Touchdown (-130)
Minnesota has pivoted to zone runs with Jordan Mason as the finisher since veteran rusher Aaron Jones landed on IR last week. He’s recorded 214 rush yards already and 76.1 rushing grade from Pro Football Focus through three weeks. That fits the plan against a stout Steelers interior. Outside zone runs stress the edges and set up advantageous looks off condensed formations. Minnesota is favored and is projected to play with a lead. The game script favors the Vikings’ rushing attack. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled to sustain drives, resulting in increased short-field chances after stops or returns. Mason’s role, plus the script, equals primary touchdown equity for the Vikings.
Tip: Bet Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown
- Vikings to run well
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Aaron Jones on IR
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Game in Ireland
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Jaylen Warren – Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
Warren averages 44.0 rushing yards per game, 14.5 below this line. He has beaten his rushing prop once in three games and has zero rushing touchdowns. The issues start up front. Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom in run blocking and rushing efficiency. The Steelers as a team feature poor yards per carry and subpar explosive run rates, especially when running between the tackles. Minnesota’s run defense shows a stark split. In two wins, the Vikings posted a 91.2 run-defense grade according to PFF. If the Steelers trail, snaps tilt to hurry-up and checkdowns. Volume risk shifts to the pass game, not carries. Under holds unless Pittsburgh finds a way to control the game.
Tip: Bet Jalen Warren Under 58.5 Yards Rushing Yards
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Warren Averages 44 Yds a Game
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Efficiency
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Key to Tempo Control
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Aaron Rodgers – To Throw an Interception (Yes +106)
This is a pressure matchup. Flores’ unit ranks top tier in blitz and pressure rates. Rodgers’ splits under heat are alarming: dead last in completion rate when pressured and near the bottom in yards per attempt. The ball is coming out short and quick. Protection has been shaky on the edges, and Minnesota’s simulated looks force late identifications. There is also relevant history. Against Flores in London last year, Rodgers threw three interceptions, including a pick-six. Pittsburgh’s offense has survived on opponent miscues, not sustained execution. Forced throws on third and medium against simulated pressure create turnover windows. Plus money for one mistake is justified.
Tip: Bet Aaron Rodgers to throw an interception
- Steelers Line Shaky
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Vikings Defense Strong
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Forced Third Down Throws
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Jordan Addison – Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Addison’s usage trend supports a modest over. He has hit receptions overs in 8 of his last 11 and returns healthy into a route tree that punishes single coverage opposite Jefferson. Minnesota’s outside-zone success marries with play-action crossers and digs. That’s Addison’s wheelhouse. Pittsburgh’s defense can still heat the pocket, but its coverage has given up chunk plays when forced to rotate behind pressure. With left tackle Christian Darrisaw back, stabilizing protection and head coach Kevin O’Connell scripting early shots, Addison needs three to five catches to clear this. A single intermediate explosive—15 to 20 yards—reduces the path. Market total is low enough to clear on standard WR2 volume.
Tip: Bet Jordan Addison Over 41.5 Yards
- Steeler Pass Rush
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Steelers struggle in coverage
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Wentz to play well
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Conclusion
Minnesota’s defense and balanced run-pass plan create sharp prop angles. Mason’s red-zone role makes him the likeliest Viking to score. Warren faces a stiff front that limits his rushing ceiling. Rodgers’ protection issues invite a costly interception. And Addison’s return adds a vertical spark that should clear his receiving line. Together, these props fit the expected script of a Vikings-controlled, turnover-driven win.
