The Cowboys return home on Monday Night Football looking to reestablish themselves after an ugly loss at Denver. Arizona comes in with flashes of potential on offense but remains inconsistent defensively, creating a matchup that could feature strong rushing production and high-percentage passing on both sides. These four prop bets highlight the best value plays heading into primetime.
Javonte Williams Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts
Javonte Williams has quickly become the centerpiece of Dallas’ offense. The 25-year-old ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards (633) and third in touchdowns (8), averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He’s topped 15 rushing attempts in five of his eight games and has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards four times this season. His consistent early-down production has lightened Dak Prescott’s load and helped stabilize the Cowboys’ offensive rhythm.
The Cardinals are allowing 146 rushing yards per game, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL, and have struggled against physical runners. Dallas has made a point of using Williams to control tempo and maintain balance, especially at home. Expect the Cowboys to continue leaning on their breakout back, giving him every opportunity to exceed 15.5 carries on Monday night.
Tip: Javonte Williams over 15.5 rushing attempts
- Game script favors Dallas
-
Cowboys control
- Soft Arizona front
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Dak Prescott Under 266.5 Passing Yards
Prescott is averaging 258.6 passing yards per game, a number already below this line. He’s only surpassed 269 yards twice this year, and both times came in uptempo games that required more volume through the air. The Cowboys’ current offensive identity is built around efficiency and shorter reads off play-action rather than deep shots or heavy passing volume.
Arizona’s secondary isn’t elite, but it’s opportunistic and capable of limiting big plays when opponents stay one-dimensional. Dallas has the league’s top passing output on paper, yet it’s fueled by balance, not volume. Unless the Cardinals force a shootout, Prescott’s passing yard total should once again fall short of 266.5.
Tip: Dak Prescott under 266.5 passing yards
- Game script favors Dallas
-
Cowboys control
- Running game
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Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions
Jake Ferguson continues to be one of Prescott’s most reliable targets. As Dallas’ run game has taken shape, Ferguson’s usage has quietly increased, with steady target totals and consistent involvement on third downs. When Prescott’s yardage is limited, Ferguson’s reception totals typically rise as the Cowboys work through quick, high-percentage throws.
Arizona has allowed the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season, and Ferguson fits the exact profile of players who have exploited them—physical, sure-handed, and trusted near the sticks. Expect him to see another six to eight targets, putting him in a strong position to clear 4.5 receptions comfortably.
Tip: Jake Ferguson over 4.5 receptions
- Ferguson top tight end
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Cardinals weak in zone
- Throw between numbers
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Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+110)
Trey McBride is emerging as one of the NFL’s most consistent red-zone options. The second-year tight end ranks fifth among his position in fantasy scoring, with 23 receptions, 187 yards, and three touchdowns in his last three games. Arizona leans heavily on him inside the 20, where his size and route precision have made him a mismatch for linebackers and safeties.
The Cowboys have allowed 15 different players to score through the air this season, struggling to contain tight ends in coverage. McBride has scored in four of his last five games and should remain the Cardinals’ primary scoring threat. At +110, his anytime touchdown prop carries one of the strongest value plays on the board.
Tip: Trey McBride anytime touchdown
- Jacoby Brissett playing well
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McBride scoring often
- Cowboys last against the pass
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Conclusion
This matchup projects as a physical, time-of-possession battle rather than a shootout. The Cowboys’ offense should flow through Williams and Ferguson, while the Cardinals rely on McBride’s reliability in the red zone. With Prescott’s passing volume likely capped, these props capture the most dependable paths to profit on Monday night.
