The Jaguars (3-1) have dropped eight straight to the Chiefs (2-2), but this new-look roster under head coach Liam Coen and general manager James Gladstone brings a more physical, disciplined identity. Still, slowing down quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce on the big stage remains one of football’s toughest challenges. Here are four sharp props to target.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+175)
Kelce has scored in two straight games and remains Mahomes’ most trusted option in high-leverage moments. Jacksonville’s defense has surrendered a touchdown to a tight end in three of four contests this year and ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed after the catch to tight ends (6.6 YAC per reception).
The Jaguars have also struggled against motion-heavy offenses, allowing a passer rating of 132.4 on motion plays, which directly benefits Kelce’s usage inside the red zone. Mahomes and Kelce connected for a score last week, and given Kelce’s 27% target share in the red zone, the matchup points to another strong scoring opportunity.
Tip: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
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Cowboy Pass Defense Soft
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Trevor Lawrence Under 212.5 Passing Yards
Jacksonville’s offense continues to find its footing under Coen. Lawrence has topped 212 passing yards just once this season, and the Chiefs’ defense ranks second in the NFL in dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.115).
The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 18% of pass attempts when pressured since 2024 — the worst mark in the league — and Kansas City has generated double-digit pressures in every game this season. Expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to keep Lawrence under duress with disguised pressures and rotating coverages.
If the Jaguars lean on running backs Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten to establish balance, Lawrence’s volume and efficiency could both dip again.
Tip: Trevor Lawrence Under 212.5 Passing Yards
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Active un the Passing game
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Cowboy Pass Defense Soft
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Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Mahomes enters Monday night after throwing four touchdowns in Kansas City’s 37-20 win over Baltimore. The Chiefs are 10-1 when passing for at least 250 yards since the 2024 season, while the Jaguars have allowed an average of 252.8 passing yards per game — the most in the NFL.
Kansas City’s offense ranks top-five in time of possession and red zone efficiency, while Jacksonville’s defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the third quarter, forcing the Jaguars to tighten up coverage late. That sets up Mahomes for multiple scoring drives through the air, especially with Xavier Worthy stretching the field vertically.
Tip: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing touchdowns
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Active un the Passing game
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Cowboy Pass Defense Soft
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Travis Hunter Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter continues to flash on both sides of the ball, but his offensive upside is where the value lies. He recorded a 28-yard catch last week and was open deep on multiple missed opportunities. With Dyami Brown questionable, Hunter’s offensive snap count should stay elevated.
Coen noted that Hunter’s route running and timing improved last week, and the Chiefs’ secondary often leaves space underneath while bracketing primary weapons. Hunter’s ability to create separation on crossers and seams gives him a solid floor, with one explosive play capable of pushing him past 27.5 yards.
Conclusion
Monday night’s matchup pits one of the NFL’s most dynamic passing attacks against a young defense still finding consistency. Expect Mahomes and Kelce to continue their rhythm while Jacksonville’s offense tries to stay balanced through the ground game.
If Kansas City controls time of possession and wins early downs, Mahomes’ passing volume and touchdown opportunities should rise — making the Chiefs’ passing props the strongest value on the board.
