Two of the league’s best quarterbacks meet again as Kansas City visits Buffalo in a rematch that always delivers fireworks. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are both in rhythm entering Week 9, and with strong offensive lines and elite playmakers on each side, this matchup sets up for a high-volume passing night. Here are the four prop bets that stand out most for Sunday’s showdown.
Patrick Mahomes over 274.5 passing yards
Mahomes has cleared 275 passing yards in three of his last four games. He’s averaging 262 passing yards per game and is atop the MVP race. Buffalo’s zone-heavy scheme limits deep shots, but Mahomes’ off-script ability and connection with playmakers Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice create consistent mid-range chunk plays. With both teams likely to trade possessions deep into the fourth quarter, Mahomes’ passing volume should comfortably push past this total.
Expect head coach Andy Reid’s game plan to lean on controlled tempo and spacing concepts that exploit linebackers in zone coverage. Mahomes has averaged over 37 pass attempts in his last three meetings with Buffalo, and his comfort level extending plays makes this over a strong bet even against a disciplined defense.
Tip:Patrick Mahomes over 274.5 passing yards
- Mahomes MVP?
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Rice is hot as of late
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Chiefs win through the air
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Josh Allen over 21.5 completions
Allen enters this week completing 68 percent of his passes and averaging 23.5 completions per game. Against Kansas City’s secondary, which plays tight coverage but allows underneath throws, Allen should rely on rhythm passes to receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid. The Bills rank among the league leaders in time of possession, and a high volume of short passing has been key to sustaining drives.
This prop benefits from game flow. Buffalo’s defense has been leaky against elite quarterbacks, and if Mahomes builds an early lead, Allen will be forced to throw. The Bills have a league-best rushing attack, but Kansas City’s defensive front will likely slow that strength, forcing Allen to complete passes at a higher rate.
Tip: Josh Allen over 21.5 completions
- Game scripit favors Chiefs
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Allen playing from behind
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Chiefs control tempo
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Travis Kelce longest reception over 18.5 yards
Kelce remains the heartbeat of Kansas City’s offense. Even with more attention from safeties, he continues to generate explosive plays in open zones. Kelce he ranks 11th in deep targets among tight ends and top ten in red zone usage. Against Buffalo’s two-high coverage, Mahomes often buys time before finding Kelce working into space over the middle. One seam or scramble drill throw could clear this number on a single catch.
Kelce has a strong history against the Bills, averaging over 50 receiving yards per game across his career matchups. Kansas City’s route distribution will use Worthy and Rice to stretch defenders horizontally, freeing Kelce for one of his trademark cross-field gains. Given how often Mahomes looks his way on broken plays, the over on his longest catch is well within reach.
Tip: Travis Kelce longest reception over 18.5 yards
- Kelce playing fast
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Mahomes favorite target
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Bills defense slow
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Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown (+240)
At plus money, this is an ideal red zone dart. Kincaid has become Allen’s preferred short-area target, and his quick release helps him find soft spots in tight coverage. Kansas City’s defense ranks among the best against outside receivers but has allowed several scores to tight ends over the middle. With Allen frequently targeting him on play-action from inside the 10-yard line, Kincaid’s involvement gives this prop real value.
Buffalo’s offense often runs shallow spacing concepts near the goal line, and Kincaid’s ability to adjust mid-route gives him the advantage against zone-heavy defenses. A projected high total game and Buffalo’s reliance on short-yardage passing make this touchdown prop worth a look.
Tip: Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
- End zone target
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Kincaid scores at home
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Chiefs play zone
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Conclusion
Mahomes should move the ball through the air early and often, while Allen’s steady volume keeps Buffalo in striking range. Expect an up-tempo game with both quarterbacks eclipsing key milestones. Mahomes’ passing over and Kelce’s big-play potential headline the slate, but Kincaid offers sneaky value at plus odds.
