The Texans will start quarterback Davis Mills again with C.J. Stroud still out. Buffalo enters this matchup looking to follow up on Josh Allen’s six-touchdown performance last week. Here are the four best prop plays for Texans vs Bills.
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Star reciever Nico Collins has been the clear beneficiary of Mills taking over. In Mills’ two starts, Collins has 16 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown. Houston has tilted its passing game toward Collins on intermediate and red zone routes, and his target share under Mills has pushed him back into elite territory.
Buffalo has struggled in man coverage on the outside. Cornerback Christian Benford has allowed chunk plays in recent weeks, and Collins’ size advantage creates a favorable matchup near the goal line. Houston will again lean on quick reads for Mills, and Collins has been the first look in nearly every high-leverage situation.
Tip: Nico Collins anytime touchdown
- Bills weak secondary
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Clear No.1 WR
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Connection with QB
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Woody Marks Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Running back Woody Marks steps into the best matchup he will see all year. The Bills have been one of the league’s worst run defenses, allowing 121 rushing yards per game to running backs and 5.4 yards per carry. Buffalo has also given up a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns.
Houston has fully shifted to Marks as the primary runner, with Nick Chubb relegated to a change-of-pace role. Marks has topped 62 yards in two of his last three games, and the volume is strong enough to clear this line in a matchup where the Bills have struggled to get off blocks and maintain gap control.
Tip: Woody Marks over 63.5 rushing yards
- Bills weak run defense
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Clear No.1 RB
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Explosive running back
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Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Allen has gone over this mark in seven of ten games. He also enters this week coming off one of the best performances of his career with three passing touchdowns and three rushing scores. Buffalo continues to run one of the league’s most efficient passing offenses, averaging 239.8 yards through the air.
Houston’s defense is strong, but Buffalo will rely on Allen to finish drives. He has hit his passing yard overs in half his games this season and has thrown for multiple scores in nearly every Bills win. Game script also supports volume. The Texans defend the run well, so Buffalo projects to attack through the air inside the 20.
Tip: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Playing like MVP
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Texans defense force throws
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Texans top-ranked run defense
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Keon Coleman Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
Second-year receiver Keon Coleman carries the highest level of uncertainty among all Bills skill players. He was benched against Tampa Bay for being late to a meeting. It was the second time he had been held out this season. His snap share has been inconsistent, and Sean McDermott made it clear this week that trust needs to be rebuilt.
Buffalo has leaned on Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir in short and intermediate areas. Coleman has not established a stable role, and a short week makes it even harder for him to regain snaps. If he plays, he projects as a situational receiver with limited routes.
Tip: Keon Coleman under 21.5 receving yards
- Suspended last week
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Been struggling since Week 1
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Texans top-ranked defense
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