This game seems like a mismatch because it is. The point spread seems tighter than it should be as the Chiefs will look to continue their domination of the hapless Denver Broncos.
Even with Travis Kelce dealing with an ankle injury, this matchup won’t require him to produce big numbers to claim victory for Kansas City.
The Broncos’ defense ranks 32nd overall in DVOA and has been just as bad against both pass and run offense, ranking 31st and 32nd, respectively. As such, this allows the Chiefs to build their lead with an efficient pass-heavy offense and move the ball efficiently until they establish themselves with more run plays that they rely on later. They should continue moving the ball effectively and score when that time comes around.
Waiting until Kansas City builds a two-score lead before betting the total in-game could be wise in this game.
Even in such a game script, the Chiefs should still be able to generate explosive plays and score. While the market might overreact in this scenario, thinking the scoring environment will decrease significantly, that doesn’t appear likely.
The Denver Broncos have had a disappointing start at 1-4, and most of their difficulties have come on defense. On the other hand, their offence has been relatively inefficient, with 16th in DVOA rankings for yards per drive and 11th for points per drive.
Russel Wilson may face more pressure this week against a Chiefs defense that ranks 11th in DVOA and fourth in pressure rate than usual, so we need to assess his performance when facing pressure compared to having an open pocket:
Weather could play a huge factor in this game as rain and wind look likely for this game—either way, I still expect the Chiefs to cover the -10.5 points. The Broncos look like a rudderless ship and the Chiefs should roll in this one.
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