NFL Week 17 New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns: Odds, Tips and Predictions 12/28/23.

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Prediction: Bet Cleveland to cover

• Over/Under: New York vs Cleveland (35)
• Spread: Cleveland -7.5
• Pick: Bet Cleveland to cover

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Joe Flacco has turned back the hands of time in the last month, and if he continues to play the way he has, the Browns will clinch a Playoff berth tonight against a New York Jets team that is offensively challenged. The Jets have a good secondary, and Flacco will need to cut down on his interceptions; the Jets cannot win this game unless they get help with turnovers and penalties.

Joe Flacco, who ranks in the top 25 in all key quarterback metrics, has brought new life and momentum to the Browns offense since taking over in Week 13. Their defense remains formidable; should Flacco keep up his phenomenal play during postseason playoffs, this could become one of the premier teams.

Flacco will face a tricky test against a Jets defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass and 13th against the run, offering him little margin for error in either regard. Instead, Cleveland might focus more heavily on running to avoid risking turnovers (Flacco has committed eight (seven interceptions and one lost fumble) within four games). New York teams generally don’t score many points anyway!

Amari Cooper remains questionable with a heel injury, prompting the Browns to lean more heavily on their running game if he cannot play.

Trevor Siemian will make his second consecutive start for Zach Wilson (concussion).

Last week against the Commanders, Siemian was used solely as a game manager, as his average pass traveled only 3.3 yards downfield. He often got rid of it quickly — average time to throw: 2.63 seconds — and often fell 6.4 yards short of first down markers on average. I expect similar game plans from both sides against Myles Garrett and company.

The Jets’ plan for Sunday is to use their defense to keep the score close and hope that Joe Flacco makes mistakes, hoping to pull off an upset victory and cover the spread. I don’t think it will work, but this should create an ideal environment for an under.

Siemian made deliberate high-percentage throws against Washington but only completed 55% (27-for-51). If Siemian completed just a few more passes it would help the under because it would keep time moving quicker.

I expect both teams to play conservatively, but Flacco will hit a couple of long plays to give the Browns the advantage. Browns 20  Jets 10.

Tip:

Browns to Cover

Best Odd

-7.5

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