NFL Week 16 Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins: Odds, Tips and Predictions 12/24/23.

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4.5/5

Prediction: Bet the Dolphins to cover

• Over/Under: Cowboys vs Dolphins (49.5)
• Spread: Dolphins -1.5
• Pick: Bet Rams to cover

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The Dolphins are great against bad teams but lose to good teams. The Cowboys look great, and then they puke on themselves. These two narratives follow these two talented teams around seemingly all the time. Those narratives have been spot-on this season. One of these teams will flip the script in this huge game; which one will pull it off?

Miami has been one of the top defenses in terms of EPA per play since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury midseason, yet let’s be realistic and look at their opponents during that timeframe.

Since Week 5, Miami’s defense has played against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They’ve faced Tim Boyle, Sam Howell, Aidan O’Connell, Will Levis and Zach Wilson within just their last five games; therefore, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that their performance against those opponents has been good – even against Titans two weeks ago, Miami allowed 8.2 yards per pass and 5.9 yards per play while only crumbling late against them in a loss.

The Eagles amassed 355 yards, the Chiefs scored on each of their first three drives, and the Bills scored on eight of 10 possessions at home in Week 4. Miami benefited from playing against so-so quarterbacks; therefore, their pass rush numbers and sack totals looked strong as a result; however, without Jaelan Phillips out with an Achilles injury, their defensive pass rush appears significantly weaker.

Given Dak Prescott’s prodigious pre-snap skills, opponents must present different looks to challenge his ability to throw downfield.

The Bills demonstrated their game plan in Buffalo. Two safeties should stay up high, forcing Prescott to use his legs and pass more often, but injuries will limit their success; Tyron Smith may miss, while Zack Martin may still play through an injury.

Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard and Elijah Campbell — three critical members of Miami’s secondary — are listed as questionable and did not practice on Friday. Although Miami’s DVOA for the season has improved from 13th to sixth overall in weighted rankings, its pass rush may struggle against Dallas’ offensive line even without Smith in action.

The Dolphins boast a more reliable run game offensively, while the Cowboys will once more be without key run-stopper Johnathan Hankins; hence, game state becomes especially crucial in both cases.

Cowboys pass rush should have no trouble penetrating Tua Tagovailoa’s defensive scheme early, which only amplifies that success.

The Cowboys have many advantages in this game, but I don’t trust them; the problem is I don’t trust the Dolphins either. If Hill plays, the Dolphins will win. Look for Mostert to have a huge game. Dolphins 31  Cowboys 27.

Tip:

Dolphins to Cover

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