NFC Championship Game Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers: Odds, Tips and Predictions 01/28/24

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Prediction: Bet Detroit to cover

• Over/Under: Detroit vs San Francisco (51)
• Spread: San Francisco -7
• Pick: Bet Detroit to cover

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The Lions were not expected to be here; the 49ers were. The 49ers, for most of the season, were considered the best team in the NFL until the Ravens manhandled them towards the end of the regular season. The Niners have more weapons, but the Lions have a gunslinger mentality and are not afraid to turn it loose and take chances.

When attacking the Lions, their secondary is your target. The Niners have a ton of receivers who can make explosive plays in the passing game.

Detroit finished the regular season as one of the league’s top run defenses per DVOA but finished 16th against pass play, allowing Baker Mayfield and Matt Stafford to throw for nearly 350 and 375 yards respectively so far during playoff play against them.

Purdy didn’t have his best game against the Packers on Saturday night, but he showed what he can do during the final drive that enabled them to beat Green Bay. Deebo Samuel remains uncertain for Sunday, yet his presence would certainly provide a huge boost; I believe Shanahan and the 49ers know this and will plan accordingly.

Samuel is such an integral component of what the 49ers hope to do that I believe his absence contributed to their struggles against the Packers. They weren’t prepared to deal with being without someone who enhances both passing and rushing attacks so substantially; having eight days with which Shanahan can plan without Samuel will certainly prove helpful in managing life without Samuel.

Purdy may have his critics, but in 2023-24, he finished as the No.1 quarterback when it comes to EPA per play, EPA+CPOE composite and various other massive factors. Although missing Samuel would be devastating for offense purposes, Purdy remained highly effective throughout.

There’s little room for argument against this 49ers team. One thing is certain: Lions coach Dan Campbell knows his position in this contest is underdog and will coach accordingly.

Campbell has done an outstanding job this season, and I can always count on him for aggressive coaching decisions on fourth-down in-game situations. Campbell will take it upon himself to coach aggressively against the San Francisco 49ers; perhaps Campbell could catch Shanahan being too conservative, like at the end of the first half against Green Bay.

San Francisco finished 15th in Rush DVOA against run offense during the regular season, and Aaron Jones managed over 100 rushing yards in 18 carries against them. With their No. 4-ranked run game led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit should be able to move the ball easily.

One major cause of concern for the Lions is Jared Goff’s home/road splits. Goff has excelled when playing at Ford Field with a 42-9 touchdown-interception ratio over 17 games; on the road however, his ratio drops significantly and averages only one passing touchdown per game on average.

The Lions must play their game of the year to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Lions will be able to run the ball good enough to stay in this game. If Jared Goff can covert on third down and get his play action passing game going The Lions will stay in this game until the end. Take the Lions +7.

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NFC Championship Game Preview Detroit Lions vs San Fransisco 49ers

Tip:

Lions to Cover

Best Odd

+7

Brand

Max. Bonus

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