NFL Week 4 Top 5 Against the Spread bets: Pitt/Indy, Cin/Car, NO/Atl, Minn/GB, Rams/Chic

week one Against the spread: 9-7

Week Two Against the Spread 9-7

Week Three Against the Spread  8-8

Overall 26-22

Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

• Point Spread: Steelers -2.5
• Moneyline Steelers -132
• Moneyline Colts +112
• Over/Under 40.5

The Steelers defense has been impressive, though without linebacker Alex Highsmith. Anthony Richardson has had inconsistent play, yet according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the team still boasts one of the highest-graded pass-blocking (85.8) and run-blocking (82.3) units in the NFL.

The Steelers faced Kirk Cousins after his return from a torn Achilles, rookie Bo Nix in just his second career start, and an injured Justin Herbert/Taylor Heinicke duo behind an injured offensive line, so taking on Richardson—flanked by Jonathan Taylor behind one of the league’s premier offensive lines—could prove one of their toughest tests yet.

The Steelers have won three games despite an offense that ranks 24th in points (17.0) and total yards (289.0) per game, as their offense ranks 24th overall in our Luck Rankings. Overall, these teams have experienced extremes in luck, with the Colts ranking second-unluckiest while the Steelers ranking 11th-luckiest.

Prediction: Colts 17  Steelers 16

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Colts +2.5

• Can the Colts throw the ball
• Colts offensive line to play well
• Colts at home

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Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

• Point Spread: Packers -3
• Moneyline Vikings +128
• Moneyline Packers -152
• Over/Under 44

The Packers won a couple of games with Malik Willis at quarterback, so it may seem reasonable to assume Jordan Love will continue their winning ways. It won’t be that easy.

The Vikings lead all defensive DVOA rankings and have not allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. In Week 2, they held off 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy with 17 points while sacking and turning over the Niners six times; then, in Week 3, they held C.J. Stroud sacking him four times and intercepting him twice. Asking Love to play at less than 100% and face Brian Flores’ fast-paced defense that uses multiple looks against them is certainly asking too much.

Meanwhile, the Packers defense was shellacked for 34 points and 410 yards by one legitimate offense (Eagles), and has relied on nine takeaways, which cannot be sustained over time. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks seventh in points per drive efficiency and could see even greater improvement with wide receiver Jordan Addison (ankle injury) expected back this week.

Green Bay boasts a +17 point differential thanks to its +7 turnover differential, while Minnesota holds on for +55 thanks to its only turnover differential of +2, playing an easier schedule, and posting an increase of 17 points from its opponent.

Prediction: Vikings 20  Packers 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Vikings +3

• Vikings defense dominates
• Love to struggle
• Packers at home

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Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

• Point Spread: Bears -3
• Moneyline Rams +128
• Moneyline Bears-148
• Over/Under 40.5

These records may seem deceiving. Both teams’ records may seem dissimilar at first glance. Although the Bears may have gone 1-2, two of their losses came by only six and five points, while the Rams were down 14+ points in all three games they played.

Bears problems are more easily remedied; their main issues consist of rookie growing pains for Caleb Williams and some questionable personnel and play-calling decisions made by their coaching staff.

Williams showed significant improvement last week against the Colts with 363 yards and two touchdowns, and the coaching staff has shown their faith by switching out Gerald Everett for Cole Kmet at tight end, giving Roschon Johnson more playing time at running back, and promising Roschon Johnson more playing time this week as their running back option. It could be an explosive showdown between an offense ranked 31st by DVOA against an opposing defense that ranks 30th!

Prediction: Bears 23  Rams 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bears -3

• Injuries killing Rams
• Bears defense to play well
• Bears at home

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers

• Point Spread: Bengals -5.5
• Moneyline Panthers +240
• Moneyline Bengals -198
• Over/Under 47.5

I think this point spread is an enormous overreaction. The Bengals should score at will, and I know the Bengals defense has struggled. Andy Dalton is a good quarterback, but the Panthers do not have the same weapons as Washington.

Prediction: Bengals 31  Panthers 20

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bengals -5.5

• Two bad defenses
• Burrow to be the difference
• Panthers at home

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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

• Point Spread: Falcons -2.5
• Moneyline Saints +126
• Moneyline Falcons -148
• Over/Under 40.5

The Falcons should not have to worry about the Refs today, as the Kansas City circus has left town with a stolen victory. This is a big divisional game between two teams that are good enough to win this division. I like the Falcons here at home and think Kirk Cousins will play well.

Prediction: Falcons 23  Saints 20

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Falcons -2.5

• Both QBs to play well
• Defense will be the difference
• Falcons at home

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