Formula 1, Round 9: The 2024 Canadian Grand Prix

Three different winners in the last three races and the championships heating up have certainly spiced up every race weekend lately. Now it’s time for the usual break in the European season with a trip to Montreal, and predicting a winner is as tough as ever.

Will Red Bull’s struggles continue?

Sure, “struggles” might sound dramatic when we’re talking about a team that’s leading both the constructors’ and drivers’ championships, but Red Bull has been having a rough patch recently.

Lando Norris snagged a win in Miami, helped along by a Safety Car, but McLaren was genuinely the fastest that day. Norris also showed impressive speed in Imola, but Max Verstappen’s stellar performance got him pole position and the crucial track position to hold onto the win.

Then there was Monaco, where Red Bull’s weakness was laid bare. The car had a hard time dealing with the kerbs and bumpy surface, leaving Verstappen in sixth and Sergio Perez out in Q1.

Verstappen hinted that Canada’s kerbs could pose similar issues, although Red Bull will use their Monaco data to try and sort it out. However, Verstappen believes this problem is inherent to the car and not something that can be quickly fixed. So, all eyes will be on their performance during Friday practice and what the drivers say afterward.

True title fights opening up

At the start of the season, it seemed like Verstappen and Red Bull might cruise to the championships again, despite the field closing in. Verstappen’s DNF in Australia hurt his points, and Charles Leclerc’s win in Monaco significantly cut into his lead, reducing the gap to 31 points.

That’s still more than a race win, but with Ferrari likely to be strong again in Montreal and McLaren also in the mix, Red Bull’s potential issues could shrink that margin further. This weekend could see another big shift, and Norris will be keen to chip away at the gap too.

The constructors’ standings are even tighter, with Red Bull only 24 points ahead of Ferrari after Monaco. Perez’s first retirement of the season added to Red Bull’s woes, while Ferrari has consistently finished both cars in the points despite some setbacks, like having to replace Carlos Sainz at short notice in Saudi Arabia. A change in the constructors’ lead after Montreal is within the realm of possibility.

Tension between the Alpine drivers

A lot of the buzz from Monaco’s first lap was about Perez’s crash with the Haas drivers, but the collision between Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly also drew attention. Ocon tried to pass Gasly despite Alpine’s orders to work together, resulting in Ocon’s race-ending crash and putting both cars at risk.

Team principal Bruno Famin promised consequences, but the story quickly evolved. Ocon addressed abuse he received on social media, and Alpine announced he’d be leaving at the end of the 2024 season. Sources say this decision wasn’t a direct result of the Monaco incident, but it certainly didn’t help his case.

Similarly, there are early signs of tension at Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton expressed surprise at not outqualifying George Russell this season. Team principal Toto Wolff understands why drivers might feel this way during intense title battles or when leaving a team, but insists both drivers will get equal treatment until the year ends.

Aston Martin’s form

Aston Martin’s season has been a mixed bag. They blame the resurgence of Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes for their challenges, though their own development has been steady.

In Monaco, Fernando Alonso admitted concerns about slipping back into the midfield, instead of staying in the fight with Mercedes for a top-three spot. Aston Martin has shown flashes of speed this year, with three top-six finishes so far.

Canada was good to them last year, with Alonso finishing second and Lance Stroll climbing from 16th to ninth in his home race. This year, it’s uncertain whether the home fans will have a competitive Aston Martin to cheer for, making it another intriguing storyline to watch unfold.