Saturday’s Big Ten showdown between Illinois and Ohio State has all the makings of a trap game. The Buckeyes are rolling through another undefeated start, but Illinois has quietly improved each week behind quarterback Luke Altmyer and a resilient defense. Still, facing the Buckeyes in Columbus is a brutal test — and the oddsmakers agree. Ohio State sits as a two-touchdown favorite, with a total hovering around 49.5 points. Instead of stressing about the spread, we’re zeroing in on player props where the real betting value lives.
Prop Overview
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Matchup:
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
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Location:
Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH
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Kickoff:
Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
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Spread:
Ohio State –14.5
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Total:
49.5
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1) Julian Sayin – Under 275.5 Passing Yards
Ohio State freshman QB
Julian Sayin
has shown poise beyond his years, but Illinois’ defensive scheme could limit his production. The Illini disguise coverages well and bring pressure off the edge, forcing young quarterbacks to check down rather than stretch the field. Ohio State’s offense has leaned on short-to-intermediate throws and a balanced run attack, which further supports the under.
If this game plays to script — Buckeyes build a lead and run the clock — Sayin likely finishes closer to 240 yards.
Tip: Sayin Under 275.5 Yds Passing
- Illini Pass defense is good
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Short Passing game
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Forced to check down
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2) Jeremiah Smith – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
True freshman
Jeremiah Smith
continues to justify the hype as one of the most dynamic wideouts in college football. He’s already developed solid chemistry with Sayin, particularly in the red zone where his size and body control stand out. Illinois doesn’t have a corner capable of matching Smith’s physicality one-on-one, which makes him a strong bet to find the end zone.
Even if the total points stay moderate, expect Smith to make his presence felt.
Tip: J.Smith anytime TD Scorer
- Elite Talent
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Illini no Corner to cover him
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He finds the endzone
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3) Illinois Team Total – Under 17.5 Points
It’s hard to see Illinois putting up more than two touchdowns against this Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes rank among the nation’s best in scoring defense and red-zone stops, and they’ve yet to allow more than 20 points in regulation this season. Illinois will try to slow the game down with the run and short passes, but Ohio State’s speed and depth up front should smother most drives before they cross midfield.
Tip: Illini Team Total under 17.5 Points
- Buckeyes Stout Defense
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Buckeyes control tempo
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Buckeyes to much speed and depth
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4) Game Total – Under 49.5 Points
Both teams prefer to control the clock and play mistake-free football. With Ohio State’s elite defense and a conservative game plan expected from Illinois, this has “grind-it-out” written all over it. The Buckeyes could get out to a quick 21-7 lead and then simply run the ball to kill the clock. Unless Illinois somehow forces turnovers, this game likely ends in the low 40s or less.
- Illini to struggle to score
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Buckeyes quick lead
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Illini must force Turnovers
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Betting Strategy & Final Thoughts
Ohio State has covered consistently this season, but totals and props have been even more reliable. The Buckeyes are built to dominate physically without running up the score, which creates consistent “under” value in nearly every market. For Illinois, staying close means ugly football — clock control, field goals, and defensive stands. That’s a formula that keeps the scoreboard low and your under tickets cashing.
Expect Ohio State to win comfortably, something like
31–13, with all four props staying in the green.
