Oklahoma vs Tennessee: Top 4 Prop Bets
The
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2, 3-2)
look to regain momentum under quarterback
John Mateer, whose mobility has stabilized the offense in recent weeks. Across the field, the
No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers (7-1, 4-1)
continue their playoff push behind dual-threat quarterback
Joey Aguilar
and a resurgent ground game led by
Jaylen Wright.
This is a classic SEC test of tempo versus discipline. Oddsmakers list
Tennessee –3
with a total around
56.5, setting the stage for balanced prop opportunities rather than a straight bet on the spread.
🏈 Prop Overview
Matchup:
Oklahoma Sooners at Tennessee Volunteers
Location:
Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, TN)
Kickoff:
Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
Spread (est’d):
Tennessee –3
Total (est’d):
56.5
🔴 1) John Mateer – Over 254.5 Passing Yards
Oklahoma’s offense under John Mateer has quietly become more dynamic as he’s settled in at quarterback. The Sooners average over 280 passing yards per game across their last three contests, and Mateer’s timing on intermediate routes continues to improve. Tennessee’s defense excels at generating pressure but can be beaten downfield when quarterbacks escape the pocket. Expect Oklahoma to attack through tempo and deep play-action, forcing Tennessee’s corners into one-on-one coverage. With Mateer’s arm strength and willingness to throw vertically, 255 yards is a reasonable target — especially in a game where the Sooners may be trailing and throwing more often.
Tip: Best Odds for Mateer Over 254.5 Passing Yards
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🟠 2) Joey Aguilar – Over 2.5 Total Touchdowns (Pass + Run)
Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar has become one of the SEC’s most underrated dual-threat quarterbacks. He’s scored at least three total touchdowns in five of eight starts, combining quick red-zone decision-making with a knack for finishing drives himself. Oklahoma’s front seven has allowed rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in three separate games this season, and their coverage schemes sometimes expose seams behind blitzes. Aguilar’s mobility forces defenses to account for both zone-read keepers and rollout passes, particularly near the goal line. In an up-tempo offense that emphasizes spacing, Tennessee’s scoring chances will funnel through Aguilar, making this prop a strong value play.
Tip: Best Odds for Aguilar Over 2.5 TDs
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⚡ 3) Jaylen Wright – Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
Tennessee’s rushing attack remains the foundation of Josh Heupel’s system, and Jaylen Wright has been its most consistent piece. He’s averaging over six yards per carry and more than 17 touches per game, giving him a steady workload floor. Oklahoma’s defensive tackles struggle when forced laterally, and Wright’s acceleration through zone lanes has produced several 20-plus-yard bursts. Expect Tennessee to establish balance early to control possession and set up play-action for Aguilar. If the Vols lead in the second half, Wright will see extended volume to grind clock. All signs point to another productive day approaching or exceeding the 90-yard mark.
Tip: Best Odds for Wright Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
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🌩️ 4) Game Total – Under 56.5 Points
Despite offensive reputations, both teams have developed into more disciplined, clock-conscious units. Oklahoma has leaned on longer drives with Mateer’s efficiency, while Tennessee’s defense ranks top-25 nationally in red-zone scoring percentage allowed. Combine that with a hostile Neyland environment — where communication issues can slow visiting offenses — and the ingredients for a slightly lower-scoring contest emerge. Explosive plays may happen early, but adjustments on both sidelines should tighten second-half scoring. Add in strong special-teams units that flip field position, and this total feels inflated by name recognition. A mid-50s ceiling makes the Under 56.5 a confident lean.
Tip: Best Odds for Under 56.5 Total
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💰 Betting Strategy & Final Thoughts
The best combination:
Mateer Over Passing Yards
+
Wright Over Rushing Yards
for a balanced offensive split. Add
Aguilar Over 2.5 TDs
for Tennessee’s red-zone volume and
Under 56.5 Total
as a tempo hedge.
Final Score Prediction:
Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 27
Favorite Props:
Mateer Over Passing, Wright Over Rushing, Aguilar Over TDs, Under 56.5
