This Saturday’s clash in South Bend pits a surging Wolfpack offense against a Notre Dame program adjusting under a new signal-caller. NC State’s young QB
CJ Bailey
is starting to flash, while Notre Dame has turned to
CJ Carr
as their 2025 starter.
The line has Notre Dame as a heavy favorite (around –22.5) with the over/under near
60.5. Given those numbers, the most promising value lies in
player props
rather than the spread — here are four angles to target.
Prop Overview
Matchup:
NC State Wolfpack vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Location:
Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, IN)
Kickoff:
Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Spread (est’d):
Notre Dame –22.5
Total (est’d):
60.5
🏈 1) CJ Bailey – Over 215.5 Passing Yards
Bailey has been efficient this year — he leads NC State in passing yards as of the midseason point. While Notre Dame’s secondary is talented, they may be vulnerable to pressure and chunk passing plays, especially if NC State gets creative with play action.
In a spot where NC State may need to stay in the game through the air, Bailey clearing
~230 yards
is quite plausible.
Tip: CJ Bailey Over 215.5 Passing Yards
- Wolfpack passing attack
-
Notre Dame secondary under stress
-
Must pass to stay in game
Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets
21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)
🔥 2) Hollywood Smothers – Over 92.5 Rushing Yards
Smothers has been the heart of the Wolfpack run game this year. NC State averages ~165.3 rushing yards per game.
If Notre Dame respects the pass from Bailey, Smothers could dance through early boxes. An 85–100 yard floor feels safe. If ND sells out to stop the run, some of those yards could slip through.
Tip: Smothers Over 92.5 Rushing Yards
- Workhorse back
-
Volume expected
-
Good matchup vs ND front
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
Get bonus now
To be eligible for DraftKings Sportsbook and the Promotion, you must be physically located in AR, AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NH, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR (residents only), TN, VA, VT, WY, WV, CA-ONT or CA-AB (each an “Eligible Jurisdiction” or, collectively, the “Eligible Jurisdictions”). Must be 21+ years of age or older (18+ if in DC/NH/PR/WY/CA-AB) (19+ in CA-ONT). GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA) Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 21 days. Bonus Bets and click-to-claims expire 7 days (168hrs) after issuance. Terms: Promos | DraftKings Sportsbook . Ends 9/20/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
🧱 3) Jaden Greathouse (ND WR) – Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Notre Dame’s passing game, under its new QB, needs reliable targets.
Jaden Greathouse
is a rising playmaker in the Irish WR corps.
Against an NC State secondary that can be stretched, Greathouse could see 6–8 catches for 70+ yards, especially if the game script leans toward passing. In particular, seam and intermediate routes may be his bread and butter.
Tip: Greathouse Over 65.5 Rec Yards
- Top ND WR target
-
NC State secondary vulnerabilities
-
Volume upside
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Get bonus now
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
⛅ 4) Game Total – Over 60.5 Points
This is a projected shootout. NC State has shown it can push tempo and score in bunches; Notre Dame will want to keep pace under its new QB. The over seems more natural than the under.
If both offenses click—Bailey with chunk passes, Smothers breaking runs, ND hitting deep throws—the game easily crosses 60 points.
Tip: Over 60.5 Total Points
- Offensive strengths both sides
-
ND new QB pushing pace
-
NC State chunk play ability
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
Get bonus now
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ D.C., KY, WY) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). First online real money wager only. Min $5 wager required for 7 consecutive days.$5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA). ™/© 2026 MLB
💰 Betting Strategy & Final Thoughts
-
Bailey Over
and
Smothers Over
give you dual exposure to NC State’s offense.
-
Greathouse Over is a higher variance play but useful if ND leans passing.
-
The Over game total is your hedge on an offensive slugfest.
Final guess:
Notre Dame 44, NC State 28
— a bit closer than the spread suggests. Props I like:
Bailey Over,
Smothers Over,
Greathouse Over, and
Game Over.
