This Saturday’s clash in South Bend pits a surging Wolfpack offense against a Notre Dame program adjusting under a new signal-caller. NC State’s young QB
CJ Bailey
is starting to flash, while Notre Dame has turned to
CJ Carr
as their 2025 starter.
The line has Notre Dame as a heavy favorite (around –22.5) with the over/under near
60.5. Given those numbers, the most promising value lies in
player props
rather than the spread — here are four angles to target.
Prop Overview
Matchup:
NC State Wolfpack vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Location:
Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, IN)
Kickoff:
Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Spread (est’d):
Notre Dame –22.5
Total (est’d):
60.5
🏈 1) CJ Bailey – Over 215.5 Passing Yards
Bailey has been efficient this year — he leads NC State in passing yards as of the midseason point. While Notre Dame’s secondary is talented, they may be vulnerable to pressure and chunk passing plays, especially if NC State gets creative with play action.
In a spot where NC State may need to stay in the game through the air, Bailey clearing
~230 yards
is quite plausible.
Tip: CJ Bailey Over 215.5 Passing Yards
- Wolfpack passing attack
-
Notre Dame secondary under stress
-
Must pass to stay in game
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🔥 2) Hollywood Smothers – Over 92.5 Rushing Yards
Smothers has been the heart of the Wolfpack run game this year. NC State averages ~165.3 rushing yards per game.
If Notre Dame respects the pass from Bailey, Smothers could dance through early boxes. An 85–100 yard floor feels safe. If ND sells out to stop the run, some of those yards could slip through.
Tip: Smothers Over 92.5 Rushing Yards
- Workhorse back
-
Volume expected
-
Good matchup vs ND front
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🧱 3) Jaden Greathouse (ND WR) – Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Notre Dame’s passing game, under its new QB, needs reliable targets.
Jaden Greathouse
is a rising playmaker in the Irish WR corps.
Against an NC State secondary that can be stretched, Greathouse could see 6–8 catches for 70+ yards, especially if the game script leans toward passing. In particular, seam and intermediate routes may be his bread and butter.
Tip: Greathouse Over 65.5 Rec Yards
- Top ND WR target
-
NC State secondary vulnerabilities
-
Volume upside
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⛅ 4) Game Total – Over 60.5 Points
This is a projected shootout. NC State has shown it can push tempo and score in bunches; Notre Dame will want to keep pace under its new QB. The over seems more natural than the under.
If both offenses click—Bailey with chunk passes, Smothers breaking runs, ND hitting deep throws—the game easily crosses 60 points.
Tip: Over 60.5 Total Points
- Offensive strengths both sides
-
ND new QB pushing pace
-
NC State chunk play ability
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💰 Betting Strategy & Final Thoughts
-
Bailey Over
and
Smothers Over
give you dual exposure to NC State’s offense.
-
Greathouse Over is a higher variance play but useful if ND leans passing.
-
The Over game total is your hedge on an offensive slugfest.
Final guess:
Notre Dame 44, NC State 28
— a bit closer than the spread suggests. Props I like:
Bailey Over,
Smothers Over,
Greathouse Over, and
Game Over.
