
The No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) have been one of college football’s biggest surprises under Curt Cignetti, pairing an explosive passing attack with a defense that keeps teams in check. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza continues to shine, while Maryland (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) looks for consistency behind promising freshman Malik Washington.
The Hoosiers enter as heavy road favorites, but the Terrapins’ offense can move the ball enough to test Indiana’s secondary. Oddsmakers list Indiana –21.5 with the total near 50.5, giving us strong prop betting value on both sides.
Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins Location: SECU Stadium (College Park, MD) Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET Spread (est’d): Indiana –21.5 Total (est’d): 50.5
Mendoza’s rhythm within Indiana’s up-tempo scheme has transformed this offense. He’s completing over 70% of his throws and averaging nearly 270 yards per game, ranking among the Big Ten’s most efficient quarterbacks. Maryland’s defense has been burned repeatedly on intermediate routes and double moves, and Mendoza’s accuracy in play-action makes him even harder to contain. Indiana uses motion to create mismatches, which should lead to explosive plays downfield. Expect the Hoosiers to air it out early to build a lead, allowing Mendoza to surpass the 270-yard mark with another poised performance on the road.
Maryland’s senior running back Roman Hemby remains their most consistent offensive threat. He’s averaging over 5 yards per carry and has topped 80 yards in three of his last five outings. Indiana’s front seven has been stout overall but vulnerable to counters and misdirection, which Maryland’s run game uses effectively. With the Terrapins looking to protect their young quarterback, expect Hemby to be leaned on heavily early to establish rhythm and chew clock. If he finds daylight on a few perimeter runs, surpassing the 80-yard threshold becomes very realistic even in a losing effort.
Freshman quarterback Malik Washington continues to flash playmaking ability despite Maryland’s growing pains. He’s scored or thrown for a touchdown in four straight games and has settled in as the team’s offensive spark. Against a disciplined Indiana defense, he’ll need to extend plays with his legs and capitalize on red-zone chances through improvisation. Expect Maryland to scheme creative looks to get him comfortable — screens, RPOs, and rollouts that open lanes. Even in limited scoring opportunities, Washington’s athleticism and aggressive mindset make him likely to account for at least one touchdown.
Indiana’s games have consistently featured efficient but methodical scoring drives, while Maryland’s offense has lacked the explosiveness needed to keep pace against elite defenses. The Hoosiers prefer to dictate tempo through balance — mixing quick strikes with extended clock-eating drives once ahead. Meanwhile, Maryland’s offense tends to sputter on third down, particularly against disciplined fronts. Add in the potential for a windy, cool afternoon in College Park, and the conditions favor a slower rhythm. Indiana’s defense will force Maryland into long-yardage situations, chewing time between possessions. When combined with a likely second-half slowdown, the Under 50.5 points looks like the safest play of the week.
The smartest combo: Mendoza Over Passing Yards + Hemby Over Rushing Yards for balanced offensive exposure. Add Washington Over 0.5 TDs for Maryland’s spark play, and close with the Under 50.5 Total as a game-flow stabilizer.
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 34, Maryland 10 Favorite Props: Mendoza Over, Hemby Over, Washington Over TDs, Under 50.5

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