Cotton Bowl CFP Quarterfinal No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (ACC) vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten)

Legacy vs. Business: The U Returns, Ohio State Reloads

The Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic serves as one of the marquee games of the expanded College Football Playoff, bringing together two of the sport’s most powerful brands under the lights at AT&T Stadium. Miami arrives riding a wave of momentum after a gritty 10–3 upset of Texas A&M in the opening round — a win that symbolized the Hurricanes’ long-awaited return to national relevance. Ohio State, meanwhile, enters with unfinished business after a stunning 13–10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, a defeat that challenged the Buckeyes’ offensive identity.

This matchup also carries historical weight. These programs have not met in the postseason since the infamous 2003 Fiesta Bowl — a game still remembered in Coral Gables for a controversial late pass-interference call that swung the national title.

Game Details: At a Glance

Matchup No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State Date Wednesday, December 31, 2025 Time 7:30 PM ET Location AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX TV ESPN CFP Stakes Winner advances to Fiesta Bowl (National Semifinal)

Roster Impact: Health, Stability & Playoff Urgency

Unlike traditional bowl games, the CFP eliminates most opt-out concerns. Both teams enter largely intact.

Miami Hurricanes: Built to Win Ugly

• QB Carson Beck (Georgia transfer) will start. While his stat line against Texas A&M was modest (103 yards), his composure and decision-making were decisive.

• RB Mark Fletcher Jr. is coming off a career-best 172 rushing yards and is the focal point of Miami’s ball-control offense.

• Injuries: WR Daylyn Upshaw is OUT. CB Damari Brown is QUESTIONABLE, which could be significant against Ohio State’s receiver depth.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Reloaded and Motivated

• QB Julian Sayin remains the engine, backed by elite perimeter weapons.

• WR Jeremiah Smith is fully healthy and remains the most dangerous freshman in the country.

• Defense: Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles anchor a unit ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense.

• Coordinator Shift: With Jim Knowles departing, Matt Patricia now calls the defense — still elite, but stylistically more conservative.

The Matchup: Trench Warfare vs. Perimeter Speed

Miami (ACC)

Mario Cristobal has rebuilt Miami in his own image: physical, defense-first, and relentless up front.

• Miami will attempt to shorten the game with Fletcher and force Ohio State into extended drives.

• DE Rueben Bain Jr. headlines a defensive front capable of collapsing the pocket and disrupting timing.

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Ohio State’s advantage lies on the outside.

• Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss present matchup nightmares against a Miami secondary ranked outside the top 40 nationally.

• If the Buckeyes protect Sayin early, the scoring ceiling rises quickly.

⭐ Top 4 Prop Bets: Miami vs. Ohio State

Game Total Under 42.5

Both teams feature top-10 scoring defenses, and Miami’s path to victory requires a slow, physical game.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Game total under 42.5

• CFP tempo
• Elite defenses
• Miami ball control

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Ohio State -9.5

Ohio State’s depth advantage becomes more pronounced late. Miami’s offense struggles to create explosive plays when forced off schedule.

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Ohio State -9.5

• Receiver depth
• Defensive discipline
• Late-game separation

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Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

Cristobal will feed Fletcher relentlessly to keep Sayin on the sideline and control time of possession.

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Mark Fletcher Jr. over 79.5 rush yards

• Workhorse role
• Clock control
• CFP usage trend

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Jeremiah Smith Anytime Touchdown

Miami’s secondary depth is thin, and Smith remains Sayin’s most trusted red-zone option.

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Jeremiah Smith anytime TD

• Mismatch advantage
• Red-zone usage
• Playoff spotlight

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Odds & Final Prediction

Consensus Lines

• Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-365) / Miami (+285)

• Over/Under: 42.5 points

The Deciding Factor:

Perimeter separation. Miami can control the game for stretches, but Ohio State’s receiver depth and defensive discipline are built for four quarters at playoff speed.

Prediction:

Miami keeps it uncomfortable early, but Ohio State’s balance and depth wear the Hurricanes down in the second half.

Final Score: Ohio State 27, Miami 16