NCAA Football Week 5: Betting All Top 25 Teams against the spread

week one Against the spread: 8-8

Week Two Against the Spread 9-7

Week Three Against the Spread 10-5

Week Four Against the Spread 10-8

Overall 37-28

Week 5

Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami, Fla

• Point Spread: Miami 18.5
• Moneyline Virginia Tech +740
• Moneyline Miami -1250
• Over/Under 55.5

The last three meetings have been decided by an average of 6.6 points per game, but this Miami team stands out. They’ve outscored opponents 107-10 in the second halves of games this year, while Virginia Tech suffered two one-score defeats against Vanderbilt and Rutgers, respectively. This could end up right on the spread, but Cam Ward, with 359.8 average passing yards per game, will take full advantage of Friday night’s spotlight.

Prediction: Miami 48  Virginia Tech 16

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Miami -18.5

• Cam Ward to good
• Miami has been dominant
• Miami at home

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Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss

• Point Spread: Ole Miss -17.5
• Moneyline Kentucky +540
• Moneyline Ole Miss -800
• Over/Under 52.5

Will Kentucky be able to contain Ole Miss’s prolific offense? In their previous two meetings against each other – 42-41 in 2020 and 20-19 in 2022—Jaxson Dart led Ole Miss with 389 passing yards per game and an incredible passer rating (219.4) on average. Kentucky begins its road season this time out!

Prediction: Ole Miss 41  Kentucky 16

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ole Miss -17.5

• Ole Miss offense to dominate
• Dart will throw for over 350 yards
• Rebels at home

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No. 22 BYU at Baylor

• Point Spread: Baylor -3.5
• Moneyline BYU +130
• Moneyline Baylor -156
• Over/Under 45.5

This line stands out, given the records, with home teams winning all four previous meetings between these schools. Why are the Bears favored? Under Dave Aranda, Baylor is 13-4 S/U and 10-7 ATS as a home favorite. I think BYU is better than people think and they will prove it in this game.

Prediction: BYU 24  Baylor 23

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet BYU +3.5

• BYU defense to play well
• Baylor will struggle to throw
• Baylor at home

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Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan

• Point Spread: Michigan -9.5
• Moneyline Minnesota +290
• Moneyline Michigan -375
• Over/Under 36.5

Michigan has won its previous three meetings for the Little Brown Jug by an average margin of 30 points per game, though its passing attack has been limited. Meanwhile, Minnesota allowed 12.5 points per game but 272 rushing yards at six yards per carry against Iowa in Week 4, losing by 17 points. Michigan’s offense looks very similar to Iowa’s, and its defense is more effective.

Prediction: Michigan 24  Minnesota 10

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Michigan -9.5

• Wolverines roll on the ground
• Minnesota struggles to stop the run
• Michigan at home

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No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State

• Point Spread: Kansas State -4.5
• Moneyline Oklahoma State +152
• Moneyline Kansas State -184
• Over/Under 55.5

Who will emerge victorious in this traditional Big 12 clash between one-loss teams? The Cowboys rank 14th in the Big 12 in rush offense (96.3 yards per game), while the Wildcats sit at third with 240.3. Unless this drastically changes, Alan Bowman must perform at his peak on a difficult road environment for the Cowboys to have any chance at victory; four out of the five previous meetings between these two sides saw them prevail, with only one loss recorded being an unexpected 48-0 shutout by Manhattan in 2022.

Prediction: Kansas State 27  Oklahoma State 21

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Kansas State -4.5

• Bowman needs to shine
• Wildcats better
• Wildcats at home

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No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame

• Point Spread: Notre Dame -6.5
• Moneyline Louisville +180
• Moneyline Notre Dame -220
• Over/Under 45.5

Last season, Louisville defeated the Irish 33-20 thanks to their ability to limit their rushing attack to 44 yards while stopping them on third downs. Riley Leonard will present different challenges against Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough. At the same time, third down defense could prove decisive as Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough has eight touchdown passes against no interceptions and no sacks taken against them this season. Louisville averages 502.3 yards per game while Marcus Freeman has led them to three consecutive successful home performances against ranked opponents under S/U coverage at home against them.

Prediction: Louisville 27  Notre Dame 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Louisville +6.5 highlights=

• Superb range of different sporting leagues
• Effective in-play betting feature
• Exciting fantasy team building

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Arkansas at No. 24 Texas A&M

• Point Spread: Texas A&M -3.5
• Moneyline Arkansas +140
• Moneyline Texas A&M -170
• Over/Under 51.5

Texas A&M is currently 1-1 against Arkansas since joining the SEC. Texas A&M boasts three options that average more than five yards per carry led by quarterback Marcel Reed. Arkansas forced five turnovers against Auburn last week in its win, so could Taylen Green make enough plays in passing game to help Arkansas make a run late?

Prediction: Texas A&M 26  Arkansas 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arkansas +3.5

• Taylen Green keeps it close
• Texas A&M gets it done on the road
• Texas A&M at home

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Wisconsin at No. 13 USC

• Point Spread: USC -15.5
• Moneyline Wisconsin +520
• Moneyline USC -750
• Over/Under 50.5

The Badgers had an extra week to prepare for USC with new quarterback Braedyn Locke, who has experience but needs to improve on his 50% career completion percentage. Wisconsin will attempt to win the time-of-possession battle and utilize some big plays from their running game. Lincoln Riley is 8-7 against the spread and coming off an emotional loss, which should give Wisconsin an advantage. That extra week may make a difference between winning and losing for USC.

Prediction: USC 24  Wisconsin 16

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Wisconsin +15.5

• Badgers to keep it close
• Badgers extra week to prepare
• USC at home

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No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn

• Point Spread: Oklahoma -2.5
• Moneyline Oklahoma -130
• Moneyline Auburn +108
• Over/Under 45.5

Oklahoma and Auburn both face quarterback controversies; Oklahoma could opt for freshman Michael Hawkins over Jackson Arnold, while Auburn might opt for Payton Thorne over Hank Brown as starting quarterbacks. Should both rookies start this game, turnovers will certainly occur; Auburn boasts an astonishing ten turnover ratio through four games, while Oklahoma is not known to make many errors on defense, with Hawkins as quarterback making enough plays to offset errors and seal victory on SEC road trips for Oklahoma.

Prediction: Oklahoma 24  Auburn 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Oklahoma -2.5

• The run game will dominate
• Turnovers will be crucial
• Auburn at home

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Mississippi State at No. 1 Texas

• Point Spread: Texas -38.5
• Moneyline Mississippi State
• Moneyline Texas
• Over/Under 62.5

Arch Manning could make his second start here instead of Quinn Ewers who is sidelined due to an abdominal strain injury, against an opponent that has allowed 49 of 56 (88.75%) completion rates from opposing quarterbacks for average 281 yards and six touchdowns over the past two weeks versus defense that has allowed 49 completions with 87.5 percent success rates for an average 281 average yardage average and six touchdowns over those two weeks!

Prediction: Texas 51  Mississippi State 10

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Texas -38.5

• Texas to dominate
• Bulldogs defense is bad
• Texas at home

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Stanford at No. 17 Clemson

• Point Spread: Clemson -21.5
• Moneyline Stanford +1100
• Moneyline Clemson -2500
• Over/Under 57.5

Stanford is currently averaging 31.3 points per game and holding opponents to just 2.2 yards per carry as it heads into an ACC road matchup at Clemson. Since losing their season-opener against Georgia, Cade Klubnik has averaged 293.5 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no interceptions; Clemson should also generate more of a running game than TCU or Syracuse could. Regardless, Stanford should continue their hot streak at home.

Prediction: Clemson 45  Stanford 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Clemson -21.5

• Clemson to roll
• Klubnik to have a big game
• Clemson at home

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No. 3 Ohio State (-24.5) at Michigan State

• Point Spread: Ohio State -23.5
• Moneyline Ohio State -3500
• Moneyline Michigan State +1280
• Over/Under 57.5

Under first-year coach Jonathan Smith, the Spartans have made strides under their first-year coach Jonathan Smith. To contain Ohio State’s running game of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, averaging 9.3 yards per carry. To further complicate matters, their turnover ratio has been negative five, and Aidan Chiles has already thrown seven interceptions – which makes for an ominous combination against an opponent, allowing 1.8 yards per rushing attempt!

Prediction: Ohio State 41  Michigan State 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ohio State -23.5

• Buckeyes to dominate
• Turnovers to kill the Spartans
• Michigan State at home

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No. 18 Iowa State at Houston

• Point Spread: Iowa State -14.5
• Moneyline Iowa State -710
• Moneyline Houston +490
• Over/Under 43.5

Houston is coming off of a 34-0 defeat at Cincinnati and now face one of the best defenses in the Big 12 — Iowa State Cyclones — who allow just 260 yards and 9.7 points per game on average. In what will likely be their first meeting ever, Iowa State may make this game difficult on Houston as an away favorite since last season; keeping things close early but Becht won’t make mistakes that alter their momentum on their journeys away from home.

Prediction: Iowa State 38  Houston 6

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Iowa State -14.5

• Becht to play well
• Iowa State defense dominite
• Houston at home

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No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State

• Point Spread: Penn State -17.5
• Moneyline Illinois +640
• Moneyline Penn State -1000
• Over/Under 47.5

Illinois has seen their offense improve thanks to quarterback Luke Altmyer – leading the Big Ten with 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions while Drew Allar holds the highest passer rating among Big Ten quarterbacks at 218.03. Illinois boasts a +7 turnover margin and should have no trouble slowing Penn State’s 255 yards-per-game rushing attack; just be wary of a late cover from them should you opt for them!

Prediction: Penn State 27  Illinois 23

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Illinois + 17.5

• Spread to big
• Penn State at home

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No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama

• Point Spread: Georgia -2.5
• Moneyline Georgia -126
• Moneyline Alabama +105
• Over/Under 48.5

Georgia and Alabama face off in what promises to be an epic contest, and Georgia appears favored due to Jalen Milroe and Alabama winning eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. DeBoer will get his chance to make a statement against two top-5 foes; both had bye weeks, and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck should not make the fatal mistake on the road

Prediction: Alabama 24  Georgia 20 

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Alabama +2.5

• Milroe to have big game
• Bama at home

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South Alabama at No. 14 LSU

• Point Spread: LSU -21.5
• Moneyline South Alabama +980
• Moneyline LSU -2000
• Over/Under 65.5

South Alabama will have LSU’s full attention this week as they have averaged 67.5 points in each of their last two games – including an impressive 48-14 win against Appalachian State – while running back Fluff Bothwell averaged 9.7 yards per carry while linebacker Harold Perkins left them without coverage. All this makes South Alabama an appealing choice to cover, however Garrett Nussmeier stands out in this contest by hitting 70.6% of his passes while leading the SEC with 13 touchdowns and giving LSU its first comprehensive performance heading into their bye week break.

Prediction: LSU 44  South Alabama 31

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet South Alabama +20.5

• South Alabama hot on offense
• Jaguars must force turnovers
• LSU at home

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Washington State at No. 25 Boise State

• Point Spread: Boise State -7
• Moneyline Washington State +220
• Moneyline Boise State -275
• Over/Under 63.5

Washington State has been an exciting team so far this season. Averaging 46.21 points per game and led by John Mateer’s 381.8 total offense average, Washington State ranks third in total offense in FBS while Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty leads FBS with 195.3 rushing yards per game; both sets of running backs should make for an exciting late-night shootout – this line could even slip under 1 touchdown before kickoff!

Prediction: Boise State 31  Washington State 30

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Washington State +7

• Washington State to stay in the game until late
• Boise must force turnovers
• Boise State at home

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Arizona at No. 10 Utah

• Point Spread: Utah -12
• Moneyline Arizona +350
• Moneyline Utah -465
• Over/Under 47.5

Arizona had an extra week to prepare for Utah, who are still relying on Isaac Wilson as their starter. Cam Rising’s presence will have an effect on our line, but we have learned to adapt accordingly. Arizona’s offense centers on Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan – who currently boast 453 receiving yards and 19.7 average catch per catch – but unfortunately have allowed 200-plus rushing yards twice out of three games, giving Utah plenty of motivation.

Prediction: Utah 27  Arizona 20

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arizona +12

• Close game
• Utah is slightly better
• Utah at home

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No. 8 Oregon at UCLA

• Point Spread: Oregon -24
• Moneyline Oregon -4000
• Moneyline UCLA +1400
• Over/Under 55.5

Oregon had a bye week to prepare for UCLA, who are coming off of a 34-17 road loss at LSU. Although UCLA have endured a difficult early-season schedule under Deshaun Foster, they have shown signs of improvement – their pass defense allowed 300 yards last two games while not creating enough turnovers or running enough of the ball against Oregon – Dillon Gabriel could help Oregon turn this game into a second-half blowout win; yet Oregon have never defeated UCLA by more than 18 points at Rose Bowl before!

Prediction: Oregon 34  UCLA 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet UCLA +24

• UCLA Improving
• Oregon offense explosion
• UCLA at home

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