NCAA Football Week 3: Betting All Top 25 Teams against the spread

Week 1 ATS: 6-6

Week 2 ATS: 12-7

Overall 18-13

Arizona vs Kansas State

• Point Spread: Kansas State -7.5
• Moneyline Arizona +202
• Moneyline Kansas State -250
• Over/Under 58.5

This line has not moved for an exciting Big 12 matchup between Arizona and Kansas State, which should feature plenty of back-and-forth action. Perhaps surprisingly, Arizona is currently winless against the spread (ATS), although last season they were unbeaten ATS (6-0). Kansas State should use their methodical run-the-ball/stop-the-run style effectively against Arizona as they try to limit McMillan targets – they were 6-2 against the spread at home last season; we think Kansas State beats trends here

Prediction: Kansas State 31  Arizona State 21

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Kansas State -7.5

• Two High-Powered Offenses
• Kansas State wins the game on the ground
• Kansas State at home

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Alabama vs Wisconsin

• Point Spread: Alabama -15.5
• Moneyline Alabama -750
• Moneyline Wisconsin +520
• Over/Under 50.5

This will be the third Big Ten-SEC showdown this season, and Wisconsin has an opportunity to score an upset victory against Alabama. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has yet to get underway on offense which limits its shot at the upoet; in contrast, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe boasts 205.6 passer efficiency rating; while their offense has been effective as of late, the Badgers only shot to win is to score some points, which they have not been able to due yet.

Prediction: Alabama 38  Wisconsin 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Alabama -15.5

• Badgers offense is nonexistent
• Jalen Milroe will play well
• Alabama to well-rounded

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Oklahoma State vs Tulsa

• Point Spread: Oklahoma State -20.5
• Moneyline Oklahoma State -1400
• Moneyline Tulsa +800
• Over/Under 62.5

Oklahoma State has won nine straight meetings between these teams, but each game in recent seasons has been decided by an average margin of 11 points per contest. Golden Hurricane quarterback Kirk Francis has played well against Oklahoma State’s. But close calls aside, Oklahoma State finally gets Ollie Gordon II on track and wears down Tulsa during second-half play; thus making them profitable on the road (3-2-1 against-the-spread in 2022-23).

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34  Tulsa 21

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Tulsa +20.5

• Cowboys are the better team
• Tulsa will hang tough until the fourth quarter
• Tulsa is a solid team

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Arkansas State vs Michigan

• Point Spread: Michigan -22.5
• Moneyline Arkansas State +1160
• Moneyline Michigan -2800
• Over/Under 45.5

Bettors might be down on Michigan because of its offensive struggles, and Michigan is currently 0-2 against the spread at home this season. Arkansas State won two close one-score victories against Central Arkansas and Tulsa; can they keep it close in Big House? Michigan requires an offensive boost, and Red Wolves allow an average of 199 rushing yards per game with 6.2 average yards per carry allowed against them.

Prediction: Michigan 27  Arkansas State 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arkansas State + 22.5

• Michigan controls the game on the ground
• Arkansas State will hang tough until the fourth quarter
• Michigan has something to prove

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LSU vs South Carolina

• Point Spread: LSU -7.5
• Moneyline LSU -275
• Moneyline South Carolina +220
• Over/Under 50.5

South Carolina will receive the ESPN “College GameDay” treatment and must use LaNorris Sellers to establish their ground game to keep up with LSU. Garrett Nussmeier had some misses against USC but still managed to complete 75 per cent of his passes for eight touchdowns with just one interception; South Carolina suffers from talent deficiencies across their roster; one bright spot being five-star freshman edge rusher Dylan Stewart with 2.5 sacks as already seen during the opening game against USC.

Prediction: LSU 31  South Carolina 27

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet South Carolina +7.5

• Gamecocks need to run the ball well
• LSU the more talented team
• Gamecocks are dangerous at home

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Boston College vs Missouri

• Point Spread: Missouri -16.5
• Moneyline Boston College +540
• Moneyline Missouri -800
• Over/Under 54.5

Missouri has shown its statistical defense is among the best in FBS through two cupcake games and won both. That will be put through its paces against Boston College, who average 282.5 rushing yards per game and feature Thomas Castellanos as an exciting quarterback. Missouri counters with Brady Cook, who will work perimeter with Theo Wease and Luther Burden, who has remained quiet through two contests; Mizzou has gone 5-4 against the spread since last season at home, but this line seems high with this BC team that typically competes.

Prediction: Missouri 27  Boston College 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Boston College +16.5

• Missouri’s first real game
• Boston College is battle-tested
• point spread is way to big

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Notre Dame vs Purdue

• Point Spread: Notre Dame -10.5
• Moneyline Notre Dame -400
• Moneyline Purdue +310
• Over/Under 45.5

Notre Dame suffered an upset loss against NIU in Week 2, prompting bettors to turn towards Purdue as an underdog in this one, having earned themselves a bye week to regroup after winning 49-0 over Indiana State in their opener. Riley Leonard has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season for Notre Dame, which could cause bettors to favour Purdue over Notre Dame as an underdog, though their performance should improve; Notre Dame was undefeated against S/U odds after losses last season by an average margin of 24 points each.  Northern Illinois is a lot better than Purdue, the Irish will roll.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34  Purdue 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Notre Dame -10.5

• Riley leonard plays well
• Purdue is not very good
• Irish win easy

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Oregon vs Oregon State

• Point Spread: Oregon -16.5
• Moneyline Oregon -850
• Moneyline Oregon State +570
• Over/Under 49.5

The Civil war continues in an exciting intrastate matchup as Oregon takes on Oregon State for their biggest spotlight game of the season. Oregon State has been highly unpredictable so far this season on both sides of the ball; one consistent aspect has been Oregon’s inability to run the ball efficiently, with only an average of three yards per carry. Dillon Gabriel will try his hardest to offset that with big plays in passing games and make this contest highly competitive at Corvallis’.

Prediction: Oregon State 26  Oregon 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Oregon State +16.5

• Bevaers will play well at home
• Ducks can’t run
• Rivalry game

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Ball State vs Miami

• Point Spread: Miami -36.5
• Moneyline Ball State +1600
• Moneyline Miami -3000
• Over/Under 54.5

Ball State had one extra week to prepare for Miami, which will be a tough challenge for them. Heisman hopeful Cam Ward leads Miami well while their run game averages 5.2 yards per carry and their defense has created five turnovers in two games – yet we think this line may drop before kickoff as Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza can make just enough plays in passing and cover this spread backdoor.

Prediction: Miami 41  Ball State 20

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ball State +36.5

• Cam Ward to go off
• Semonza will make some plays
• Ball State is a good offensive team

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Utah vs Utah State

• Point Spread: Utah -21.5
• Moneyline Utah -3000
• Moneyline Utah State +1200
• Over/Under 46.5

Quarterback competition will be at the heart of this matchup, as Cam Rising (hand) exited Utah’s win against Baylor in Week 2, leaving their offense struggling without him and thus impacting this line. Utah State lost 48-0 against USC last weekend; Bryson Barnes is now their quarterback after replacing Rising following his injury at the 2023 Rose Bowl Game; so there may be some unknown factors and in-state rivalries at play; these schools last met back in 2015 and three of their four meetings had narrow margins decided them by 10 points or less!

Prediction: Utah 38  Utah State 15

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Utah -21.5

• Utah better team
• Utah State at home
• CRivalry game

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Tulane vs Oklahoma

• Point Spread: Oklahoma -13.5
• Moneyline Tulane +440
• Moneyline Oklahoma -610
• Over/Under 49.5

This line has increased by one point since opening. Oklahoma had trouble beating Houston last week, yet their defense remains effective at forcing turnovers. Tulane challenged Kansas State last time out. Jackson Arnold remains free of turnovers while their rush defense only allows 1.8 yards per carry – two keys for Oklahoma in this matchup against Tulane on the road if Oklahoma can generate some turnovers themselves. Tulane may find things more challenging on their home field as Oklahoma could force some turnovers themselves and win outright here.

Prediction: Oklahoma 24  Tulane 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Tulane +13.5

• Tulane is a good team
• Oklahoma struggled last week on offense
• Tulane will keep it close

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Ole Miss vs Wake Forest

• Point Spread: Ole Miss -23.5
• Moneyline Ole Miss -2800
• Moneyline Wake Forest +1160
• Over/Under 63.5

Lane Kiffin on CW should be pretty exciting! Ole Miss has poured on points against FCS and Group 5 schools this season, while Jaxson Dart averages 14.7 yards per attempt. Wake Forest quarterback Hank Bachmeier (transfer from Boise State) will do his best to keep them close – however, stopping Ole Miss will prove challenging!

Prediction: Ole Miss 55  Wake Forest 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ole Miss -23.5

• Jaxson Dart will have a big game
• Wake Forest at home
• Ole Miss offense will be unstoppable

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UTSA vs Texas

• Point Spread: Texas -34.5
• Moneyline UTSA +1600
• Moneyline Texas -2500
• Over/Under 54.5

Are the Longhorns vulnerable? Definitely not; their team has evolved as it matures. Texas beat UTSA 41-20 back in 2022, and Quinn Ewers led an efficient offensive unit. Meanwhile, Owen McCown could still make some plays in passing game action and this should make for an intense cover.

Prediction: Texas 48  UTSA 10

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Texas -34.5

• Quinn Ewers will have a big game
• Texas at home
• Texas to strong

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Georgia vs Kentucky

• Point Spread: Georgia 24.5
• Moneyline Kentucky +1600
• Moneyline Georgia -4500
• Over/Under 45.5

Georgia has not allowed a touchdown through two games, while Kentucky is coming off of a 31-6 loss against South Carolina. Kirby Smart appears to have one of those national championship-caliber teams who will not allow Kentucky back into games: They have won their last four meetings by an average margin of 10.2 points each time, this will not be nearly that close.

Prediction: Georgia 45  Kentucky 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Georgia -24.5

• Carson Beck will have a big game
• Kentucky at home
• Kentucky offensive line is bad

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Kent State vs Tennessee

• Point Spread: Tennessee 49.5
• Moneyline Kent State
• Moneyline Tennessee
• Over/Under 62.5

The Golden Flashes are coming off of an upset loss against St. Francis and are now seven-TD underdogs against Tennessee. The Volunteers average 60 points and 589 yards total offense each game under Josh Heupel; Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson each average eight yards per carry for Tennessee. Their record against Mid American Conference schools under Heupel stands at 3-0 S/U victories by an average score margin of 46 points per contest; thus making this game close in terms of spread but comfortable at home for them.

Prediction: Tennessee 63  Kent State 7

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Tennessee -49.5

• Tennessee will score often
• Tennessee at home
• Total mismatch

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