NBA Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks: Odds, Tips and Predictions 12/13/23.

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4.6/5

Prediction: Bet Pacers to cover

• Over/Under: Indiana vs Milwaukee(259)
• Spread: Bucks -6.5
• Pick: Bet Pacers to cover

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Less than a week ago, the Indiana Pacers beat the Bucks in Milwaukee to advance to the in-season championship game. The Pacers did it as underdogs; can they do it again six days later? The Bucks look to be over valued at -6.5 in this one. The Pacers are an electric, high-scoring team that can score points in bunches.

Under this approach, Milwaukee sits tied for 11th with a net rating of just 3.2. Offensively, Milwaukee ranks fourth for efficiency at 119 points per 100 possessions while ranking fifth with 102 possessions per game – impressive marks.

However, the Bucks work harder for their scores and currently sit 28th with 11.1 fastbreak points per game compared to first-place Pacers, who average 17.5 fastbreak points on average.

One area in which Milwaukee may hold an edge over Indiana is at the free throw line, ranking sixth with 25.6 attempts per game compared to 22.5 by Indiana. However, that advantage could be neutralized, considering Milwaukee ranks 22nd for free throw shooting at 76.9% while Indiana sits eighth at 79.6%.

Does all this indicate a Bucks team capable of giving the Pacers 6.5 points at home?

The Indiana Pacers boast a +3.8 Net Rating, tied for seventh in the league. Their offense has led the charge, leading the league in efficiency at 123.5 points per 100 possessions while playing at an incredible pace of 104.17 possessions per game.

Comparatively, the Bucks rank second in possessions per game with 104.05. However, their Offensive Rating of 111.1 points per 100 possessions puts them in 23rd position overall.

Although I acknowledge that the Bucks have their fair share of issues, the real takeaway should be that playing faster does not guarantee better efficiency.

Effective Field Goal Percentage can be one of the most telling indicators for teams. Indiana leads this stat with an impressive 58.8% mark – making Indiana one of the more eye-opening teams in the league!

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The Pacers’ team is an unfavourable matchup for the Bucks, giving us points with a potentially stronger team that has already defeated the Bucks twice this year.

Attacking teams like the Pacers with an Offensive Rating of 118 or greater can quickly accelerate play. Furthermore, both squads boast defenses ranked in the lower third of NBA.

Play faster against the fastest team in the league, and you may be doing them a favor by having to match their insane efficiency while maintaining their pace. Now consider that the team is an underdog already scoring some points before tipoff! Take the Pacers and the +6.5.

Tip:

Pacers to Cover

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+6.5

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