The New York Knicks’ chances in Game 7 rest heavily with homecourt advantage and positive injury news; plus, they boast the top player in this series.
The Pacers have faced an uphill climb this playoffs due to their success and unexpected circumstances from opponents(injuries). Can this team reach the conference finals to do that they will have to win a game 7 on the road at Madison Square Garden, which will be no small feat.
- Spread: Knicks -3.5
- Moneyline Pacers +134
- Moneyline Knicks -158
- Over/Under 208
These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 05/19/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Knicks to Cover
The Hospital Knicks have already missed Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle for much of the season. Josh Hart now appears doubtful after suffering an abdominal strain during Game 6. Interestingly enough, Hart was limited to only 39 minutes that day!
OG Anunoby has been upgraded from questionable to doubtful status, and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports he will go through a shootaround. That would be a tremendous change for this series, as OG was playing an average of +4.4 minutes per game before his injury, while their minutes without him have fallen drastically to -6.7 since. Anunoby can provide timely corner shooting as well as more defensive versatility.
Anunoby is so influential that you should wait to see if he’s available before betting this game. He holds a player option this summer and could potentially negotiate new terms with the Knicks; thus if he plays, it could radically shift this game and decide this series.
The Knicks have gone 5-1, with a +7.8 point differential at home in this series so far. Their formula for success in every game remains unchanged: focus, patience and relentless work ethic.
Indiana is relatively injury-free outside of Benedict Mathurin, who will miss the rest of the year (and who could really use a boost today).
By the numbers, the Indiana Pacers have been the superior team overall. I understand that basketball can’t be measured using spreadsheets but these facts shouldn’t be overlooked either.
But the Pacers boast an overall net rating of +1.5 in this series – though slight, that figure signifies they have not been outscored during each game and have found ways to win despite crazy outcomes like Andrew Nembhard’s buzzer-beater in Game 3. Their margin overall stands at 7 wins!
Sure, it doesn’t feel that way – but that gives the Pacers hope of victory.
Game 7 environments favor lower-scoring teams and home teams; therefore, the Knicks should be favored—though only by 3.5 points.
Tyrese Haliburton has always appeared timid at Madison Square Garden during this series; that won’t happen if Indiana wants to win in Game 6. Yet Indiana has consistently outwitted expectations from Game 1 through 6, including two terrible performances at Madison Square Garden, where they went 1-3 as underdogs but 2-2 against the spread (ATS).
Home court advantage could help this energetic group of hustle junkies seal victory in Game 7. An offensive rebound edge matters, but in my estimation, the Knicks shouldn’t be more than 2.5 favourites with home-court advantage in such a crucial contest.
If both Anunoby and Hart play, I won’t enjoy it as much and am unlikely to back the Pacers if the line shifts after they were announced as starters, even at reduced odds. Conversely, if both are ruled out at once, I think their absence adds greater value even with reduced prices. Wait until just before game time to bet this game. As it stands now I will take the Pacers and the +3.5 points. Check out the latest
Western Conference odds
for the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Tip: Bet the Pacers to Cover
- Rebounding will be the key
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Knicks at Home
- Hospital Knicks
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Knicks vs Pacers Moneyline
The Pacers on the moneyline is a great value pick. If you are betting on the Knicks, the value is not great, and I would lean more towards betting the -3.5! I think the Pacers could win this game, and a money-line bet for the Pacers in this game does make some sense, especially if Hart and OG are ruled out. If you are looking for the best sportsbook, we’ve got you covered as we break down the
best sports betting app
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Money line value on Pacers
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Can the Pacers to control the tempo
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Knicks at home
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Knicks vs. Pacers Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is 208 in this game. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the over. I expect the Pacers to score a lot of points, but their lack of perimeter defense will lead to a lot of Knicks points. Also, expect a game in the 100s.
- Odds favor game in the 100s
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Game will be played at a fast pace
- Rebounding will be key
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Knicks vs Pacers Spread Analysis
This point spread is about right to me the Knicks at home are worth three points and the Pacers are the deeper better overall team. My biggest question is can the Pacers match the Knicks toughness?
Tip: Bet the Pacers to Cover
- Which team controls the post
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Knicks Home Court Advanatage
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Knicks more experienced
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Knicks vs Pacers Head-to-Head
The regular season means nothing at this point. What matters is the Knicks are at home and the home team has won all six games of this series so far? Check out our guide to betting on
NBA Playoff Parlays.
Injuries and Suspensions
Knicks Injury Report
- Randall- Out
- Anunoby-Questionable
- Bogdanovich- Out
- Robinson
- Hart- Questionable
Timberwolves Injury Report
Conclusion
I think the Knicks’ toughness could swing the game in their favour, but the injuries will be huge if OG and Hart play and are close to one hundred per cent; take the Knicks -3.5, but I think it’s unlikely both play, so I will take the Pacers +3,5 points.
